I think 51 is the line to watch and not 52.

Macy's short General Mills long

St Micro (STM) long. Nice looking chart, earnings call 4/25. Semis are strong.

Earnings season begins this week. Friday, big banks report like JPM, C etc. Earnings should be very good.

Y'all think the MGM acquiring WYNN has any wings?

Aren't tax cuts already baked into the stock price so expectations on earnings are already high?

AggiePeeps06 said:

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Aren't tax cuts already baked into the stock price so expectations on earnings are already high?

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Yes but are they high enough? For instance, Merrill Lynch is projecting 20% earnings growth for the S&P 500 for 2018. What multiple should 20% earnings growth sell at....20,21? Currently the S&P is selling for about 17-17.5 X. If the multiple would go to 20, then the S&P would sell at 3,000 or about 14% higher by the end of the year.

pfo said:

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AggiePeeps06 said:

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Aren't tax cuts already baked into the stock price so expectations on earnings are already high?

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Yes but are they high enough? For instance, Merrill Lynch is projecting 20% earnings growth for the S&P 500 for 2018. What multiple should 20% earnings growth sell at....20,21? Currently the S&P is selling for about 17-17.5 X. If the multiple would go to 20, then the S&P would sell at 3,000 or about 14% higher by the end of the year.

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They also have not baked in how companies loaded 4Q17 with expenses to maximize 1Q18 profit at 21% tax rates. In other words, nearly every earnings report in 4Q had the verbiage, "earnings were lower by $XXXX due to a $X Million charge due to tax reform." None of the earnings reports for 1Q will have that verbiage, and all will be maximizing profits during fiscal 2018 due to the risk of taxes being changed under a new congress and a deal making president.

Whatever earnings were projected to be, they will be 20% higher than that, roughly. It is patently absurd to suggest that's baked in with the S&P flat for the year. You can argue about other factors, and that's legit, but at the end of the day, the P/E ratios are going down over the next few weeks as earnings season kicks off.

We just launched an air strike against someone in Syria.

DOW futures +120 for now

It was Israel, we're good

leoj said:

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It was Israel, we're good

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Yeah, I saw that later.

Anyone using tasty trade? I opened an account and now the app shuts down after I try and log in.

I use it

You are using the stand alone desktop app?

Dit it work previously?

What about the web interface, trade.tastyworks.com?

I would try to reinstall and call support in the morning, they are pretty responsive

Funny I just signed up as well, it did the same thing at first. I think it's because it takes a day or two for your account to be approved. My app started working a day or two after I initially registered.

This is what I am guess I g is going on.

Those AVEO buys under $2 rocking. I'm taking a good portion off the table for the quick 20% plus gain at $2.45

Enjoy your ~25%!

Wish I would've bought more!

IrishTxAggie said:

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Enjoy your ~25%!

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Corrected the math.

Appreciate it! I bought 50k shares and sold 35k at $2.45. Not a bad 2 day trade and now my net holding price on 15k shares is $0.87. I can hold with confidence from here.

Thanks again!

And if I knew more about the company I'd likely have held it all based on that Friday huge volume day. That chart is exactly what I have mentioned to look for and asked people to post when they see them happening.

You don't need to over complicate these kind of charts. You simply buy them.

p.s. I exited 90% of all the call options purchased Friday. Thank you Boeing!

oldarmy1 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Enjoy your ~25%!

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Appreciate it! I bought 50k shares and sold 35k at $2.45. Not a bad 2 day trade and now my net holding price on 15k shares is $1.49. I can hold with confidence from here.

Thanks again!

And if I knew more about the company I'd likely have held it all based on that Friday huge volume day. That chart is exactly what I have mentioned to look for and asked people to post when they see them happening.

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They're wrapping up a Phase 3 and already approved in the EU for a first-line advanced renal cell carcinoma. This Phase 3 trial was at the request of the FDA for a larger trial to see if the results are duplicated because of a hard ass on the panel. They came out on early January (I think) saying the trial is continuing as designed with no changes to protocol.

So what you're saying is that there is a hard azz on the renal treatment?

Interesting volume spike on the S&P 1 minute.

You still holding the GE $13.50 calls? Not getting the move we were looking for quick enough to offset the decay

i've read on the aveo message board that there is a conference tomorrow?? people were asking if the rise could be due to a leak of positive news. i don't know anymore that what i can easily google but was curious to hear your thoughts Irish?

Not sure. There was no scheduled call for tomorrow that I'm aware of, but I believe they are supposed to present at a conference in Europe this week. Towards the end of last year, It was floated that Jazz Pharmaceuticals was interested in acquiring and the price floated was in the $14-18/share. Jazz has the licensing agreement in the EU for FOTIVDA. They could be trying to get a buyout agreement in place before the new Phase 3 readout catalyst because if the readout is as everyone suspects it should be, AVEO could see $7+ very quickly and a buyout would be imminent from there.

reading this makes me want to put my life savings into it. i won't of course, but it sounds really positive.

what say you said:

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reading this makes me want to put my life savings into it. i won't of course, but it sounds really positive.

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I know the feeling. I'm sitting on a very sizable chunk and the urge to dump everything into it is strong. I've already broken one of my rules with acquiring so much of this stock.

So glad I bought call at the open and bought puts after lunch. Made perfect sense.

Yeah right. What a day.

AVEO pulling back from the day's high of $2.69. Lots of shorts got squeezed today. I think it will settle on the day between $2.45-$2.50. I believe it will go higher tomorrow after they present in Europe could possibly see it go passed what appears to be a $2.70 resistance. $3 by the beginning of May is very attainable.

aggielax48 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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I bought 50k shares

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When I realized I'm still a lolpoor...

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We will get there. Invest wisely.

AggiePeeps06 said:

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You still holding the GE $13.50 calls? Not getting the move we were looking for quick enough to offset the decay

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I still have them. $1100 sitting at $600. Holding to see if anything tomorrow but not liking the S&P rejection move through the afternoon. Resistance hit and slipped all afternoon.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Not sure. There was no scheduled call for tomorrow that I'm aware of, but I believe they are supposed to present at a conference in Europe this week. Towards the end of last year, It was floated that Jazz Pharmaceuticals was interested in acquiring and the price floated was in the $14-18/share. Jazz has the licensing agreement in the EU for FOTIVDA. They could be trying to get a buyout agreement in place before the new Phase 3 readout catalyst because if the readout is as everyone suspects it should be, AVEO could see $7+ very quickly and a buyout would be imminent from there.

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Well if there is a conference tomorrow and you really think something big coming grab some April 20 $3 options. One thing we know is there were over 9 million shares traded Friday and today less than a million, so the larger buyers certainly did not take profits.