F me just lost all my gains. Such a sick bounce

GOOG from 995 to 1030
FB from 168 to 175
XOM from 73 to 76
JPM from 106 to 110

These bounces are nasty in 20 minutes

The price action today is nuts. I'm just glad I caught some of the up swing

54 minutes before closing (+32). I bet it will be up or down more than 200 points. I just know which.

oldarmy1 said:

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Just an observation on historical analytics. Markets would be wise and likely to enter a period of sideways action after the meteroic rise. With the election year expect more turbulence that could lead to testing supports. Looking at a sideways to resistance market on up days putting in place covered calls a strategy returns as the chief strategy. Obviously select stocks can, and will break out (See our TWTR long term holdings strategy finally breaking out on getting their model tweaked to profit for the 1st time - Up $6 premarket signalling a breakout trend to likely end up around $37 with longer term resistance at $52)

There you have the 30k foot view. Hope it helps!

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We have a tremendous 2000 point gap between resistance highs and current support attempt formed. That means a lot of continued action as control tries to capture volitilaty. You can see the support (green line) held from the last breakout that took us from these levels to the market highs. You can also see the volume coming into the markets the last few days as initially sellers lead the charge before support seekers flooded in. Should the support bottom hold (I think it does for short term) then we will see a quick jolt back upwards to challenge the resistance top.

So traders have been buyers on this support anytime we were negative 200+. Many lightened those trades on catching the 330 point positive close. 500 points of intraday trading on a Friday is a heavenly event. Look for markets to make traders chase share price premarket Monday (unless we nuke North Korea ). Traders with higher risk tolerance view the support bottom and strong close today as good enough "burying" their buys to the plus side, to hold over the weekend. That's how I traded it because the race upward would pay a minimum 1000 points more than selling at close today.

This all is posted with the macro post made above being to use covered calls should we move towards the red line of resistance. It would be surprising to see the markets reach new highs without a quarter of sideways action, and with 2000+ points of room just to get to those levels I feel confident in my post.

Have a great weekend!

The poor top will be revisited, little doubt. If you have enough risk tolerance, buy and hold until then. But, there is quite a lot of balancing to do from the top and the 15/16/17 top breakout, and that will happen as well.

Currently in a small amount of 4/20 50c for ROKU. Expecting it will move past the 50 MA prior to earnings on the 21st and take profits before earnings.

I like them longterm too -- I suspect they will eventually be bought out at some point

Ranger222 said:

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Currently in a small amount of 4/20 50c for ROKU. Expecting it will move past the 50 MA prior to earnings on the 21st and take profits before earnings.

I like them longterm too -- I suspect they will eventually be bought out at some point

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Disney doesn't have an appliance yet...I could see that with their current content acquisitions

Disney's acquisition of 20th century fox gives them controlling interest in Hulu. This is the unknown honeypot of the deal.

Les Appelt 1999 said:

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Disney's acquisition of 20th century fox gives them controlling interest in Hulu. This is the unknown honeypot of the deal.

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I suppose the thought is they will be able to rival Netflix?

Netflix is pumping a lot of $$ into original programming. They probably see the writing on the wall.

Disney also did not renew their agreement with Netflix for streaming rights of Disney content. I think all Disney content is off of Netflix by the end of 2019.

Ranger222 said:

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Currently in a small amount of 4/20 50c for ROKU. Expecting it will move past the 50 MA prior to earnings on the 21st and take profits before earnings.

I like them longterm too -- I suspect they will eventually be bought out at some point

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sold ROKU puts this morning. $42 strike expires next Friday for $3.70 per each. If it takes a dip below $42 I am in Roku at $38.30.

I sure hope it breaks through. I forgot to set sell orders..

tailgatetimer10 said:

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I sure hope it breaks through. I forgot to set sell orders..

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You're looking good pre-market

Was holding some SOXL since Wednesday, I'm going going shed it today..

Basically flat to slightly negative on the markets at the open now. Mid-channel reached, Friday, 3 day weekend, etc. For a trader, who successfully bought the support bottom and took a 1000 point ride upward, taking some money off the table made sense yesterday.

That said, unless people think a bear market is on the horizon (I don't) then we will still eventually retest the upper channel. Whether we get a lower high or breakout is unknown (Again, I think a period of sideways ranging is a good thing and likely) but I will be a buyer should we have some mid-channel resistance profit taking giving another entry opportunity.

I made the move to take from higher volitile stocks to lower. I guess we will see how it plays out.

Thanks again for your insight

oldarmy1 said:

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Basically flat to slightly negative on the markets at the open now. Mid-channel reached, Friday, 3 day weekend, etc. For a trader, who successfully bought the support bottom and took a 1000 point ride upward, taking some money off the table made sense yesterday.

That said, unless people think a bear market is on the horizon (I don't) then we will still eventually retest the upper channel. Whether we get a lower high or breakout is unknown (Again, I think a period of sideways ranging is a good thing and likely) but I will be a buyer should we have some mid-channel resistance profit taking giving another entry opportunity.

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Thanks for the running commentary. As a rookie in the market, I appreciate your narrative. Books are helpful, but the real-time guidance you're providing is outstanding.

Took profits on that ROKU trade this morning ahead of the ER.

Ranger222 said:

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Took profits on that ROKU trade this morning ahead of the ER.

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Curious, is Roku a high risk ER trade? I don't follow it or trade it.. however sometimes I like to take on some risk before ER to seek a pay off

Anyone else looking at calls on WMT this morning? I'm thinking WMT will bounce around 91 so looking at some call options around that range (June or Sept from a timing of the call).

Any reason why WMT tanked today?

gougler08 said:

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Any reason why WMT tanked today?

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Think they missed on earnings.

They had very high expectations in my opinion. I'm looking for an entry after this drop, as I think it's a bit of an overreaction

tailgatetimer10 said:

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They had very high expectations in my opinion. I'm looking for an entry after this drop, as I think it's a bit of an overreaction

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Agreed

WMT hit revenue but were below estimates for online sales. I put in orders at $94. Probably will buy wherever they end up today.

And lost huge share to amazon in cyberspace. A primary reason they were viewed as a survivor in the digital age that has slaughtered brick and mortar was because they invested heavy in their online presence and actually looked like they could compete. Until this last quarter. Amazon flat kicked their ass.

Honestly WMT might melt downward from here like most brick and mortar retail.

Kudos to old army1 on the mid channel call. The S&P tried to get past 2750 over the last couple days, and the sellers finally won today. I wonder if we channel back down before advancing again. What is the lower resistance level predicted to be now?

Les Appelt 1999 said:

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And lost huge share to amazon in cyberspace. A primary reason they were viewed as a survivor in the digital age that has slaughtered brick and mortar was because they invested heavy in their online presence and actually looked like they could compete. Until this last quarter. Amazon flat kicked their ass.

Honestly WMT might melt downward from here like most brick and mortar retail.

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I don't know.. as long as you have 'people that shop at walmart', which is much of our country, WMT will be around.

But not trading at 25x earnings.

Les Appelt 1999 said:

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But not trading at 25x earnings.

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21x, but who is counting?

I didn't know that was a stipulation.

I've read that the options market are pricing in a 20% move for earnings.....I don't like to play earnings and just took the risk off after the move up from $40. Especially with the overall market trending down. I think they'll be fine, but just trying to be risk averse.