Whelp... That was short-lived!ColinAggie said:
I figured all the bad is already priced in and the AMZN threat has been slightly overblown (for the time being).
I have a stop-loss on it.
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ColinAggie said:Whelp... That was short-lived!ColinAggie said:
I figured all the bad is already priced in and the AMZN threat has been slightly overblown (for the time being).
I have a stop-loss on it.
Hehe, I'm losing my ass.
Not saying it is totally worthless, but to me, I don't like it because there is no reasoning given in Tom's trade posts. At least the other people you can follow generally give you the reasoning behind their trade. With as many trades that are posted, if you're not constantly keeping up with every trade, you can't really follow if he's making a trade for an earnings play, to hedge another position taken earlier, or rebalance his portfolio to be in line with his strategy. Unless I see more to it once I become a little more active, there's no way I would pay $900/year just to see each trade posted. Besides Bob's IRA and Tom, the others are all free to follow.aggiemetal said:if you fund a tastyworks account you'll have access on the platform to "Bob the Trader" I detailed on one of previous pages. It's usually $900 a year, or $100/mon, $30 for a week. It's a valuable too, especially for beginning options traders.leoj said:
Aggiemetal, what is the bob the trader promotion you posted on the previous page?
Basically see all the trades of a select group of traders. If interested in a trade they do you can with one click get the trade setup duplicated on the platform and if you like it you can enter it or tweak it to your risk tolerance. Tom is the featured trader. Was a really valuable tool when I first started. One it's hard coming up with trade ideas when you are starting out. Also it's very valuable seeing how traders manage trades when things go for or against. Third even for veteran traders it's another tool to find underlyings worth trading when Vol is low and it's hard finding stuff worth putting on. And just seeing the various ways you can approach a trade.
It has more details within each trade setup. They have to say it's for "engagement" purposes and not trade suggestions bc legality but obviously it can be used for the latter if one wants to use the ideas as stated above.
I think the promotion is running until August. (It was supposed to be sooner but the CME has made it hard for them to get futures up and running so they've extended it. They are reportedly really close to launching them BTW)
I have a question for ya, and I don't mean it in a negative way. But how do you feel about Blue Apron when Amazon purchased Whole Foods? I'd like to invest in BA, but am nervous for those long term situations. Also to poor to afford AMZN
TheVarian said:
I have a question for ya, and I don't mean it in a negative way. But how do you feel about Blue Apron when Amazon purchased Whole Foods? I'd like to invest in BA, but am nervous for those long term situations. Also to poor to afford AMZN
I didn't expect Blue Apron to miss their EPS as bad as they did honestly. I figured a lot of the bad was already priced in on BA and was looking to catch a quick little bump off their earnings call, but man was I wrong!! Expected EPS of -$0.30 and ended up at -$0.47. They came to market with a good model, but AMZN will make it better and beat them with pricing. I don't see Blue Apron fairing too well since the AMZN purchase of Whole Foods especially with the silent treatment that they run with.
Weird, the market is way down today. Has this ever happened before? I can't remember.
wessimo said:
Weird, the market is way down today. Has this ever happened before? I can't remember.
BTFD regime will end at some point. Odds are this is not that time.
agree....yesterday was more panic sellers and weak hands having to fold ...Trump doubling down on his WWE style promo he cut on NK (not knocking it what so ever) obviously and more so the situation they created in general being the catalystclaym711 said:
BTFD regime will end at some point. Odds are this is not that time.
not saying it won't happen (continuation) but in agreement on the feel of the tape at this time....of course usually I think zig markets says zag 98% of the time, I'm rarely right on direction of anything
Anyone playing $DRYS?
Hopefully they get futures by next week for you. August 23 is no commissions on trades that day. I assume any regulatory fees still apply.aggiemetal said:this x 1,000,000redsox34 said:Jon H. Ryan said:
my problem is always, how do you find these trades? so many stocks, so many different strategies. What is the right stock and the right strategy.
Tasty trade has filters for liquidity, IV, and IVR. They also have a tasty trade watchlist with stocks that fit their criteria.
The right strategy all depends on you though, and how much risk you can handle. There are strategies with both defined and undefined risk. When first starting out, I would recommend learning defined risk strategies like vertical spreads and Iron Condors.
then eventually when you get more and more comfy, you can drop the wings on the condor which is a strangle if you it's in your risk window
I will say though with tastyworks it's way cheaper to have those extra legs on the trade commissions wise, so I may get back to doing more defined risk when I can finally switch over there (still waiting for futures and can't wait) ...not just another plug, it cost a lot putting on 4 legs and taking off 4 legs for an iron condor, tastyworks are cheaper per leg opening and don't charge commissions to close trades
Just curious, how does the software work when trying to fill your orders? If there are $.05-$.10 spreads and you have two sides to a trade, how do they fill orders? Seems like there would have to be conditional statements to make it work, but I don't see how that works in reality.
What is everyone currently watching for an entry?
LVS, have always liked the company. They have some of the premier properties in Vegas and Macau. Addelson is old but fundamentally will not reduce the dividend. it is at the core of who he is as a person. Looks to be some support around $57. That would put the Div yield at 5%.
AMZN, will see if todays movement is an uptrend or if it continues to retreat and maybe test the $900 of mid May.
LVS, have always liked the company. They have some of the premier properties in Vegas and Macau. Addelson is old but fundamentally will not reduce the dividend. it is at the core of who he is as a person. Looks to be some support around $57. That would put the Div yield at 5%.
AMZN, will see if todays movement is an uptrend or if it continues to retreat and maybe test the $900 of mid May.
Low, csco, dis, aapl, WHR, tsco, fl, sbux. Just need to save up some funds and make a decision.
Was hoping for a proper correction. V up did not occur and we closed near a gap, so still hoping.
I'm guessing yours is more predictable since you're putting these trades on at 95% PoP? Most of my trades are generally ~70% PoP. So if I had $9,000 in premium, I'd expect 70% of $4,500, so $3,150 on average, minus however much the 30% losers cost me. I would be curious if anyone has run the numbers on expected return with different PoPs?aggiemetal said:Vito said:
Would you say your monthly income is somewhat predictable, or is it typical to have a few months treading water followed by a big month that makes up for it?
for the most part, certainly...you know what you are putting on and target profit (if ive' got 9,000 in premium on I'm expecting to make 50% $4500 in a few weeks max)
HD announces today after market close. A significant earnings beat is already priced in which is why some early profit taking has occurred after the market popped at open. I opened a very tight stop loss at $153.25 for the rest of the day. I was going to sell today and take my 5% gain, but my curiosity got the better of me. I'll keep the tight stop order today and if it is exercised, so be it. If earnings smash and it pops another 1% tomorrow, I will take my profits at that time.Bonfire 1996 said:This has been nice. Up a little over 5% in under a month. Earnings are a week from today and they should pop. I might sell ahead of earnings as a beat is already priced in.Bonfire 1996 said:
Just jumped back into Home Depot at $144.80. P/E ratio is right at 20x which given the average earnings beat they have been experiencing lately is a bargain. They took a beating this last week simply for Amazon listing Kenmore appliances, which aren't sold in Home Depot (or Lowes) stores. I am expecting a quick 5% pop between now and Labor Day which includes an earnings release on August 15.
They report tomorrow.Bonfire 1996 said:HD announces today after market close. A significant earnings beat is already priced in which is why some early profit taking has occurred after the market popped at open. I opened a very tight stop loss at $153.25 for the rest of the day. I was going to sell today and take my 5% gain, but my curiosity got the better of me. I'll keep the tight stop order today and if it is exercised, so be it. If earnings smash and it pops another 1% tomorrow, I will take my profits at that time.Bonfire 1996 said:This has been nice. Up a little over 5% in under a month. Earnings are a week from today and they should pop. I might sell ahead of earnings as a beat is already priced in.Bonfire 1996 said:
Just jumped back into Home Depot at $144.80. P/E ratio is right at 20x which given the average earnings beat they have been experiencing lately is a bargain. They took a beating this last week simply for Amazon listing Kenmore appliances, which aren't sold in Home Depot (or Lowes) stores. I am expecting a quick 5% pop between now and Labor Day which includes an earnings release on August 15.
Oops, I interpreted before the bell on the 15th as after close on the 14th. Sorry.
good thoughtsVito said:I'm guessing yours is more predictable since you're putting these trades on at 95% PoP? Most of my trades are generally ~70% PoP. So if I had $9,000 in premium, I'd expect 70% of $4,500, so $3,150 on average, minus however much the 30% losers cost me. I would be curious if anyone has run the numbers on expected return with different PoPs?aggiemetal said:Vito said:
Would you say your monthly income is somewhat predictable, or is it typical to have a few months treading water followed by a big month that makes up for it?
for the most part, certainly...you know what you are putting on and target profit (if ive' got 9,000 in premium on I'm expecting to make 50% $4500 in a few weeks max)
POP, probability of profit is totally separate from where I manage my winners at or my expected return, which it seems like you are saying (forgive me if I read that wrong)...POP just means that going in, all things even in this efficient market place, that odds are 95% prob of the position breaking even (theoretically the formula reads, odds of making $0.01 hence catchy Prob of Profit or POP)
but to the meat of your point, tastytrade has done extensive research on that (think they did a "market measures" segment last week actually saying it's wiser/more effective to go in closer with less contracts)
(found link, see next post)
....70% is pretty close if you are undefined and leaves you exposed to probability of touch (just b/c there is no likely way a move may take out your strike, it can still bleed you dry if you are too big or too close)....84% one standard deviation is a good starting place or even around 1.5 standard deviations at around 90%, lets you collect good premium and not having to be as big contract wise but if there is a big move like last week, you are obviously closer to getting breached and you will take a lot of heat (if you have a bigger account, no big deal you can take it, but for most there's an "uncle" point where you have to protect capital and bail/roll out further so I just start with enough cushion where if a move blows my POP out of the water I'm in way better standing to take the heat even on my more moderate sized account) ...everyone has their own risk tolerance I prefer that level but it may be extreme at at some point I may start sliding in a tad and collecting more but for now this works for me
when I say 9,000 and expect to make $4500 it's b/c I mechanically without fail take a winner at 50% (tons of backtesting supporting W/L and profit % taking a hit when people expose themselves longer to time and the market vs. managing winners)...when I get the profit I want I'm not risking giving it back...sometimes I'll take winners at 35% and set something up smaller to make up what I potentially can still make on it if I'd let it ride to my 50% mark, allows me less contracts/exposure and reduces buying power...for instance this morning I took some winners a little early coming off of last weeks big down move where I loaded the boat w/ short puts
I reduced my position contract wise by about 50% but still have the same dollar winning potential (reduced size of those puts and moved them a little closer (still north of 95%) but with less contracts (instead of being at 1.85 trying to get to 1.50--started at 3.00, I'm now reset with way less contracts starting over at 3.00) trying to get to x-dollars when the trade hits 50%, same I $'s I had left in the bigger position that was down to 185
ex.
@ 1.85 with a target of 1.50 ---means on futures which for whatever reason are 1/2 value of stated price so 35 left to make per contract is acutally $17.5
on 10 contracts at that strike down to 1.85 I stood to make another $175
It takes 2 contracts at 3.00 to generate $150 (as a 50% winner, a full winner would be $300 on those 2 contracts)
so I just reduced the position from short 10puts to 3puts (I rounded up erroring on the side of making a tad more and or it kind of more or less mitigates some loss on commissions if you are in a crap brokerage that likes to rake customers over the coals instead of an awesome platform with the lowest rates out there tastyworks brokerage sign up
see what I did there, but seriously don't screw yourself, sign up) reduced BP significantly and exposure in number of puts (and even though Volatility has come in a bit with last night and todays move, it's still allowing me to collect $3.00 at 96% POP or OTM)
I don't do this all time but when I get VOL like last week and get extremely leveraged, I'm also going to manage the winner more aggressively b/c I don't want to be exposed more than need be with kind of jack on the table
found the market measure on thisaggiemetal said:
Vito said:
I would be curious if anyone has run the numbers on expected return with different PoPs?
aggiemetal:
but to the meat of your point, tastytrade has done extensive research on that (think they did a "market measures" segment last week actually saying it's wiser/more effective to go in closer with less contracts)
Market Measure Study on I/C Size in High Prob vs. Lower Size w/ Slightly Closer Strikes (skip to like 3 minutes in, they always BS at the beginning of this segments)....BTW you guys learning this stuff, if you want to just focus on one thing the daily "Market Measures" segments are incredible and they include "takeaways" slide at the end to tie it all together (it's something I started with and as you can see I still learn from, always be learning)
actually since I've watched this one last week or whenever it was, it I've been thinking of bringing my POP in a bit to maybe the 90% area
(when they say 5 delta in the video they are referring to 95%+ OTM/POP and 16 delta is that one standard deviation 84% OTM/POP)
*BTW their backtesting and giving the math behind everything is superb
Well, I saw the 15th and assumed it was after close. Before open is essentially reporting after market close today as far as trading days go.Bonfire 1996 said:
Oops, I interpreted before the bell on the 15th as after close on the 14th. Sorry.
Man, four months ago I wouldn't have understood what the hell you're talking about, haha. Thanks to tasty trade, I can actually follow and understand it. The market measures, options 201 with Dr Jim, Ryan & Beef show is just great, free content. Btw, I used your referral link when I signed up, but I feel like I still owe you! I might have to ship you a bottle of scotch or something after I hit my next milestone on tasty trade.aggiemetal said:good thoughtsVito said:I'm guessing yours is more predictable since you're putting these trades on at 95% PoP? Most of my trades are generally ~70% PoP. So if I had $9,000 in premium, I'd expect 70% of $4,500, so $3,150 on average, minus however much the 30% losers cost me. I would be curious if anyone has run the numbers on expected return with different PoPs?aggiemetal said:Vito said:
Would you say your monthly income is somewhat predictable, or is it typical to have a few months treading water followed by a big month that makes up for it?
for the most part, certainly...you know what you are putting on and target profit (if ive' got 9,000 in premium on I'm expecting to make 50% $4500 in a few weeks max)
POP, probability of profit is totally separate from where I manage my winners at or my expected return, which it seems like you are saying (forgive me if I read that wrong)...POP just means that going in, all things even in this efficient market place, that odds are 95% prob of the position breaking even (theoretically the formula reads, odds of making $0.01 hence catchy Prob of Profit or POP)
but to the meat of your point, tastytrade has done extensive research on that (think they did a "market measures" segment last week actually saying it's wiser/more effective to go in closer with less contracts)
(found link, see next post)
....70% is pretty close if you are undefined and leaves you exposed to probability of touch (just b/c there is no likely way a move may take out your strike, it can still bleed you dry if you are too big or too close)....84% one standard deviation is a good starting place or even around 1.5 standard deviations at around 90%, lets you collect good premium and not having to be as big contract wise but if there is a big move like last week, you are obviously closer to getting breached and you will take a lot of heat (if you have a bigger account, no big deal you can take it, but for most there's an "uncle" point where you have to protect capital and bail/roll out further so I just start with enough cushion where if a move blows my POP out of the water I'm in way better standing to take the heat even on my more moderate sized account) ...everyone has their own risk tolerance I prefer that level but it may be extreme at at some point I may start sliding in a tad and collecting more but for now this works for me
when I say 9,000 and expect to make $4500 it's b/c I mechanically without fail take a winner at 50% (tons of backtesting supporting W/L and profit % taking a hit when people expose themselves longer to time and the market vs. managing winners)...when I get the profit I want I'm not risking giving it back...sometimes I'll take winners at 35% and set something up smaller to make up what I potentially can still make on it if I'd let it ride to my 50% mark, allows me less contracts/exposure and reduces buying power...for instance this morning I took some winners a little early coming off of last weeks big down move where I loaded the boat w/ short puts
I reduced my position contract wise by about 50% but still have the same dollar winning potential (reduced size of those puts and moved them a little closer (still north of 95%) but with less contracts (instead of being at 1.85 trying to get to 1.50--started at 3.00, I'm now reset with way less contracts starting over at 3.00) trying to get to x-dollars when the trade hits 50%, same I $'s I had left in the bigger position that was down to 185
ex.
@ 1.85 with a target of 1.50 ---means on futures which for whatever reason are 1/2 value of stated price so 35 left to make per contract is acutally $17.5
on 10 contracts at that strike down to 1.85 I stood to make another $175
It takes 2 contracts at 3.00 to generate $150 (as a 50% winner, a full winner would be $300 on those 2 contracts)
so I just reduced the position from short 10puts to 3puts (I rounded up erroring on the side of making a tad more and or it kind of more or less mitigates some loss on commissions if you are in a crap brokerage that likes to rake customers over the coals instead of an awesome platform with the lowest rates out there tastyworks brokerage sign up
reduced BP significantly and exposure in number of puts (and even though Volatility has come in a bit with last night and todays move, it's still allowing me to collect $3.00 at 96% POP or OTM)
I don't do this all time but when I get VOL like last week and get extremely leveraged, I'm also going to manage the winner more aggressively b/c I don't want to be exposed more than need be with kind of jack on the table
On one of their segments, they mentioned that anybody really knowing the basics should be able to earn 1%/mo, or ~12.6% annually. So far, I'm averaging between 1.5%-2%/mo, although I'm only 4 months in, so I can't wait to see where I'm at this time next year!
ah man that's awesome, you don't owe me a thing, that post is enough, love seeing other people out there getting it and taking control of their own funds...I appreciate you using my referral, was wondering who that was thx....Vito said:
Man, four months ago I wouldn't have understood what the hell you're talking about, haha. Thanks to tasty trade, I can actually follow and understand it. The market measures, options 201 with Dr Jim, Ryan & Beef show is just great, free content. Btw, I used your referral link when I signed up, but I feel like I still owe you! I might have to ship you a bottle of scotch or something after I hit my next milestone on tasty trade.
On one of their segments, they mentioned that anybody really knowing the basics should be able to earn 1%/mo, or ~12.6% annually. So far, I'm averaging between 1.5%-2%/mo, although I'm only 4 months in, so I can't wait to see where I'm at this time next year!
just keep paying it forward to other Aggies, friends, family, whoever (don't be surprised if it doesn't get much traction at first LOL, friends typically stare at you cross-eyed) ...I'm only here myself b/c Randy got me out of the mutual fund world, and then by luck I stumbled onto tastytrade
also that's great (your numbers) but don't worry so much about the P/L at first, just learn the language, get fluid in the skill set you can use for a lifetime and pass on to your kids, then you can take it to the next level, obviously any cash is great, but funny as it sounds that's not the value initially if that makes sense ...just keep it small and keep doing your thing man, thats so awesome
Gonna try it soon, thanks for the thread, it will help me! Do you trade Forex too? I have recently start it and it is a really interesting thing, I have to say. I use the Forex signals from http://signalsking.com and I pretty much like everything so far. Maybe you can share some tips and tricks from you too, it would be great!
Anyone concerned that the Fed, uh, doesn't know why we aren't getting inflation...and are going to raise rates anyways. They've got no clue what afffext pumping the money supply will have....other than inflate equities, which they called out, and admitted that they are planning to pop that bubble, despite no inflation. Fed will cause the upcoming recession.
I am sure the Fed understands that their numbers are bull*****
They thought velocity of money was gone as they pumped and pumped and pumped without any inflation under obama. They didn't understand that banks kept the money and bought government bonds while rates were zero and banked the spread. The FED told them to loan that stimulus out and the banks said, yeah, ok, give me my 25 basis points on twenty billion and fugg off. They had zero confidence in economic growth under obama so they kept the stimulus in house.
Now with trump, higher confidence, and higher rates, they are loaning the billions in profits they have made, risk free for six years, in addition to the billions they have gotten back from trading in shltty debt under QE3.
Velocity of money is bad. Velocity of money after inserting $2 trillion into the money supply might be catastrophic. We will see.
Now with trump, higher confidence, and higher rates, they are loaning the billions in profits they have made, risk free for six years, in addition to the billions they have gotten back from trading in shltty debt under QE3.
Velocity of money is bad. Velocity of money after inserting $2 trillion into the money supply might be catastrophic. We will see.
Bonfire 1996 said:
They thought velocity of money was gone as they pumped and pumped and pumped without any inflation under obama. They didn't understand that banks kept the money and bought government bonds while rates were zero and banked the spread. The FED told them to loan that stimulus out and the banks said, yeah, ok, give me my 25 basis points on twenty billion and fugg off. They had zero confidence in economic growth under obama so they kept the stimulus in house.
Now with trump, higher confidence, and higher rates, they are loaning the billions in profits they have made, risk free for six years, in addition to the billions they have gotten back from trading in shltty debt under QE3.
Very well said!
While expanding my position in AAPL this morning trying to buy the dip, I started to look at Disney. I sold them right after the pop from "Beauty and the Beast" and have watched it tumble down to near $100/share. Sooner or later that is going to be a good stock again. Them yanking their product from Netflix to go to a proprietary delivery was absolutely the right move, along with moving towards selling the ESPN App "a la carte." Those are financial winners for DIS long term. The time to jump back in isn't right now, but soon over the next two years.
But what struck me when looking at Disney is the much maligned stock is still trading at 18x earnings. With as much hell as they have endured for poor performance amongst its cable outlets, they are at 18x earnings. Which is where AAPL is trading. I just cannot believe how undervalued AAPL is going into both the Holiday season and the release of the iPhone 10th gen. I just cannot believe it. Do you trust AAPL to grow more than DIS over the next 12 months? Goodness Gracious. And there are analysts who say DIS is undervalued right now. If DIS is undervalued at 18x earnings and ESPN's shrinking profits.....what the hell does that mean for AAPL with every product line still in growth mode?
On another note, I wonder if AAPL might be correction proof because of this as well. It might be a correction safehaven if a correction is looming. With the economic growth we are experiencing, even if the stock market is overvalued overall, the upper middle class (AAPL's customer base) is going to expand their purchases of AAPL products.
This is a $200 stock period.
But what struck me when looking at Disney is the much maligned stock is still trading at 18x earnings. With as much hell as they have endured for poor performance amongst its cable outlets, they are at 18x earnings. Which is where AAPL is trading. I just cannot believe how undervalued AAPL is going into both the Holiday season and the release of the iPhone 10th gen. I just cannot believe it. Do you trust AAPL to grow more than DIS over the next 12 months? Goodness Gracious. And there are analysts who say DIS is undervalued right now. If DIS is undervalued at 18x earnings and ESPN's shrinking profits.....what the hell does that mean for AAPL with every product line still in growth mode?
On another note, I wonder if AAPL might be correction proof because of this as well. It might be a correction safehaven if a correction is looming. With the economic growth we are experiencing, even if the stock market is overvalued overall, the upper middle class (AAPL's customer base) is going to expand their purchases of AAPL products.
This is a $200 stock period.
If Apple were valued as a consumer products stock, which it is, it would receive a higher valuation.
If Apple's consumer loyalty were measured like Hershey's, which it should, it would receive a higher valuation.
Tim Cook and I don't agree on politics AT ALL and I wouldn't darken the door of a Starbucks or Target because of their politics. But I would fight you if you tried to take my iPhone!
Peter Lynch was right. "Buy stock in companies whose products you love".
People can't go throug the day without smartphones anymore and Apple makes the best.
I will be adding to my Apple on any further weakness. There are no sure things in the market but Apple has held my confidence since the iPod first came out.
Any company worth over $800 billion is doing lots of things right.
If Apple's consumer loyalty were measured like Hershey's, which it should, it would receive a higher valuation.
Tim Cook and I don't agree on politics AT ALL and I wouldn't darken the door of a Starbucks or Target because of their politics. But I would fight you if you tried to take my iPhone!
Peter Lynch was right. "Buy stock in companies whose products you love".
People can't go throug the day without smartphones anymore and Apple makes the best.
I will be adding to my Apple on any further weakness. There are no sure things in the market but Apple has held my confidence since the iPod first came out.
Any company worth over $800 billion is doing lots of things right.
I read today that Apple has assembled a $1B warchest to get into the entertainment business. I assume they plan to go head to head with the likes of Disney and Sony in an already saturated entertainment market. I question he wisdom of this.
SoupNazi2001 said:Bonfire 1996 said:
While expanding my position in AAPL this morning trying to buy the dip, I started to look at Disney. I sold them right after the pop from "Beauty and the Beast" and have watched it tumble down to near $100/share. Sooner or later that is going to be a good stock again. Them yanking their product from Netflix to go to a proprietary delivery was absolutely the right move, along with moving towards selling the ESPN App "a la carte." Those are financial winners for DIS long term. The time to jump back in isn't right now, but soon over the next two years.
But what struck me when looking at Disney is the much maligned stock is still trading at 18x earnings. With as much hell as they have endured for poor performance amongst its cable outlets, they are at 18x earnings. Which is where AAPL is trading. I just cannot believe how undervalued AAPL is going into both the Holiday season and the release of the iPhone 10th gen. I just cannot believe it. Do you trust AAPL to grow more than DIS over the next 12 months? Goodness Gracious. And there are analysts who say DIS is undervalued right now. If DIS is undervalued at 18x earnings and ESPN's shrinking profits.....what the hell does that mean for AAPL with every product line still in growth mode?
On another note, I wonder if AAPL might be correction proof because of this as well. It might be a correction safehaven if a correction is looming. With the economic growth we are experiencing, even if the stock market is overvalued overall, the upper middle class (AAPL's customer base) is going to expand their purchases of AAPL products.
This is a $200 stock period.
There aren't many guarantees in this world but I can guarantee you Apple is not correction proof. By being the largest stock out there it gets hit hard with all the ETF and futures selling you get in a correction. See today for an example.
Eek! A Nazi!
Netflix announced a $7 billion budget for next year. Unless Apple plans on substantial growth in subsequent years, I'm not sure it's worth their efforts. It'll be interesting to see what their plans are because I don't know if they can generate their typical margins on that content when having to compete with everyone else.Burdizzo said:
I read today that Apple has assembled a $1B warchest to get into the entertainment business. I assume they plan to go head to head with the likes of Disney and Sony in an already saturated entertainment market. I question he wisdom of this.
Closed out a short put vertical on HD today (thanks for the heads up on them Bonfire). Got a little greedy and decided not to set to close at 50% profit after their earnings release. They had a short pop before dropping quick. Probably would have closed out that morning, but wound up holding it another two weeks to hit my target of about 57%.
Also closed a strangle on INTC for 50% profit in two weeks.
Finally, closed the short put leg of a Jade Lizard on BBY for minimal profit. Have the short call vertical that should expire worthless unless I am able to close out with a small credit. I'll wind up about with only about 30% on this one.
Returned 5% in 6 weeks on my initial deposit. Don't really have ideas for trades at the moment. Not confident in the market in either direction and iron condors are hard to get good return for my risk tolerance.
Also closed a strangle on INTC for 50% profit in two weeks.
Finally, closed the short put leg of a Jade Lizard on BBY for minimal profit. Have the short call vertical that should expire worthless unless I am able to close out with a small credit. I'll wind up about with only about 30% on this one.
Returned 5% in 6 weeks on my initial deposit. Don't really have ideas for trades at the moment. Not confident in the market in either direction and iron condors are hard to get good return for my risk tolerance.
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