Most wells have pump off controllers, so they'll only run when there's a certain amount of fluid in the wellbore. And while the wells pumping isn't necessarily indicative of spending, there can be a correlation. Some areas have extremely high declines, especially some of the tighter areas and shales. So that means you'll have a higher producing rate early in the life of the well and less rate later in the life of the well. That also means your pumps will be running more hours per day early in the life and less hours per day later. Now if you're in a place with an established water flood or that has a strong aquifer drive, the oil rate will still decline, but the water rate will increase to or stay at a more flat and stable rate (so the pumping unit still has to run).

Also as far as headcount goes, I really don't think you'll see it grow significantly anytime soon, at least not like it did previously. Most companies are being extremely careful there. And while rig counts have gone up, I haven't seen much growth in headcount in other areas. So while the teams that support the drilling activity have grown some, headcount growth with field operations, facilities staff, and the engineering staff has been fairly small. I'm not saying there aren't any of those jobs available, there are, but companies are a lot more patient with getting the exact fit they want for a position.

With all of that being said, I'm still long on oil. I have no issues buying oil stocks with companies I'm comfortable with. And while it is possible for oil to go back into the low $30 range, I think it's far more likely to go the other direction. That's just my take though, but I only really invest in oil since it's what I know best (although I did get lucky buying banks after the Brexit panic).

Joseph Parrish said:

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Maybe, but my 300% gain happened with CRC. I'm not saying it's stable, but there are plenty of other oil stocks that are worthwhile right now and less risky. I'm betting that $50-55 oil is more likely than $27.

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Comeby! said:

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Joseph Parrish said:

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Maybe, but my 300% gain happened with CRC. I'm not saying it's stable, but there are plenty of other oil stocks that are worthwhile right now and less risky. I'm betting that $50-55 oil is more likely than $27.

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Are you trying to be hostile here? What is your point? You can believe me or not believe me all you want. I bought the day oil hit $27 a barrel and sold it at the beginning of this year. If you're smart, you can probably figure out what point on that graph that day was. I didn't invest in CRC prior to that day.

You can continue to act like you can't make any money on undervalued stocks, but you would be wrong.

Comeby! said:

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Joseph Parrish said:

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Maybe, but my 300% gain happened with CRC. I'm not saying it's stable, but there are plenty of other oil stocks that are worthwhile right now and less risky. I'm betting that $50-55 oil is more likely than $27.

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You should post the SN 5 year stock performance as well. Maybe question everybody's gains that they've made and posted here on this thread just because it fell off a cliff in 2014.

Joseph Parrish said:

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Comeby! said:

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Joseph Parrish said:

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Maybe, but my 300% gain happened with CRC. I'm not saying it's stable, but there are plenty of other oil stocks that are worthwhile right now and less risky. I'm betting that $50-55 oil is more likely than $27.

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Are you trying to be hostile here? What is your point? You can believe me or not believe me all you want. I bought the day oil hit $27 a barrel and sold it at the beginning of this year. If you're smart, you can probably figure out what point on that graph that day was. I didn't invest in CRC prior to that day.

You can continue to act like you can't make any money on undervalued stocks, but you would be wrong.

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Cool your jets. 300% on CRC is exceptional and I was hoping you would explain how you did it, especially with that ugly chart.

VIX trade rocking

BTW - Energy sector taking a beating due to Trump's comments on lowest gas prices in years and that they will go lower.

Trump is our own worst enemy- maybe sometimes, maybe not

SN is taking it on the chin a bit today. Down around 7% so far today.

I think this is just an overreaction. I'm not saying I know which way oil prices will go, but I just don't think presidents have much control over gasoline prices. Obama would take credit for increased oil production when he didn't do a single thing to help this industry. I think gasoline prices or production levels are just cheap bragging rights for presidents to claim when things go their direction. If Trump continues to roll back regulations and keep the EPA working withing the existing laws instead of creating new ones, it will help oil more than Obama ever did.

ColinAggie said:

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SN is taking it on the chin a bit today. Down around 7% so far today.

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Yeah, they are taking it a little harder than others in the sector.

Looks like they're finding support at $6.95.

Joseph Parrish said:

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I think this is just an overreaction. I'm not saying I know which way oil prices will go, but I just don't think presidents have much control over gasoline prices. Obama would take credit for increased oil production when he didn't do a single thing to help this industry. I think gasoline prices or production levels are just cheap bragging rights for presidents to claim when things go their direction. If Trump continues to roll back regulations and keep the EPA working withing the existing laws instead of creating new ones, it will help oil more than Obama ever did.

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The only thing that is going to help oil prices is demand. Demand will occur when the world economies and our own economy actually pick up and grow more than .5 - 2%. As long as we have politicians that want to increase taxes and make governments bigger we will not get real growth. We are in an oil price bear market. Get use to it, they last for many years. The last one in the 80's lasted for 15+ years. It took a sustained economic expansion to bring us out of it, but these days gov't has expanded faster than our economy and when you take money from the private sector and put it into gov't you get low growth or no growth (i.e. Europe) and higher unemployment.

I would not touch any oil stocks (E&P or service) for a while. Just continue to watch the big drilling contractors. They indicated when the oil bull was over and they will tell you when it may start again. They are still in decline and have yet to bottom and build a base. They are lower than they were 15 years ago when they were bottoming and basing at that time. Any rally is an oversold rally in a bear market.

oldarmy1 said:

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VIX trade rocking

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VIX +12% again today. Take a chunk off the table if you traded it as a hedge.

Guess I was wrong... Is SN making a run all the way back down to under $6? Is there a support in there somewhere?

ColinAggie said:

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Guess I was wrong... Is SN making a run all the way back down to under $6? Is there a support in there somewhere?

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It was right around $6 last time.

oldarmy1 said:

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And here is CRC on a long term chart. About the easiest H&S you'll ever see. And right now it has broken below it's long term support. This is a stock you DO NOT want to trade.

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Why you never ignore the macro-technicals

oldarmy1 said:

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Selling CRC Naked Puts out to July 21st for $1. That's $1000 for every 10 options premium paid to me. If the stock is above or around $10 come July 21 then I keep the $1000/10 Put options. If the stock is below around $9.75 then I likely get executed meaning I have to buy those 1000 shares at $10. But I would actually be at a net $9 purchase net with the option premium.

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so given your recent insight how did you handle your trade here?

Ragoo said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Selling CRC Naked Puts out to July 21st for $1. That's $1000 for every 10 options premium paid to me. If the stock is above or around $10 come July 21 then I keep the $1000/10 Put options. If the stock is below around $9.75 then I likely get executed meaning I have to buy those 1000 shares at $10. But I would actually be at a net $9 purchase net with the option premium.

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so given your recent insight how did you handle your trade here?

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You should be out of that trade the moment the long term support was broken. It's a trade - not a death wish.

fair point

Agree Drilloil, demand in my opinion is driving the ship (no pun intended).

I if I could trade oil short term I would say its range bound for a while longer between 43 and 46. As you could see this morning it dropped 4% and hit 43 then popped back up to 44. I think it settles around 45 again before the numbers next week then moves in one direction or the other before settling back around 45 before the next set of numbers comes out. There would have to be some huge catalyst right now to change that in my opinion.

I am interested in why Trumps comments mean anything? Can someone explain why him saying cheaper gas prices are coming is supposed to tank the oil price? I am lost with this because what exactly can he do to make gas prices cheaper? The only thing I would think of would be to get rid of RINS which would help the energy companies and shouldn't affect oil prices I wouldn't think.

The best TA is all related to volume profile. What seems to be discussed most here, typical H&S pattern, is a successful trade < 50% of the time in backtesting with various stop and profit parameters. It's not a good trade. I'd suggest studying up on VP, not looking for simple patterns that every amateur trader can recognize. Although, if you've studied and like the underlying, using some simple TA to build a position isn't a bad idea - you still need to know your exits, and exits are much harder.

Clay, saw you post in the nerdery. What program are you running?

We are on Ninjatrader for now. Are you running an algo?

oldarmy1 said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Any insight as to the macro market direction you would like to share?

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The latest bull leg signaled on June 9th post has found resistance at DOW 21500. I'd be using covered calls against big gainers on days like today when pushing towards those highs, if a trader. OR if playing long ball I'd buy Puts out to July 21st at strike prices 20-30% below current values. For example, if a stock has moved from $7 entry to $10+ then I'd buy an $8 Put.

Personally I prefer to sell the $9-10 covered call in that scenario, depending on premium, but obviously you risk markets breaking through this resistance and having your shares called out.

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1 week to go on covered call premiums. Most have deteriorated to a point where I have been buying them back to lock in all the gains. Others have dropped below the covered call strike price so much that I'll bid them at a nickel or let them straight expire to gain full premium received. Either way the strategy has paid off as the market continues to bounce off resistance.

Oldarmy, you still bullish on TWTR over the long haul?

TriumphForks said:

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Oldarmy, you still bullish on TWTR over the long haul?

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Yes but as an acquisition target by someone who understands monetization strategies. It will happen.

Does Tasty Works have a "play" account where you can practice strategies before fully implementing them with real money?

Also, is the Bob the Trader promotion still active if you fund your account now?

Also, do the accounts have access to see the support/resistance levels that are talked about on here? If so, is it free or an additional charge to see that information?

khkman22 said:

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Also, do the accounts have access to see the support/resistance levels that are talked about on here? If so, is it free or an additional charge to see that information?

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You should be able to just pull up the graph.

TastyWorks doesn't do paper trading accounts. Also, I think the Bob offer has ended, but I'm not sure.

Anyone else's platform stopped permitting shorting on CRC and SN?

SN @ 6.04

Buy opportunity on SN???