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oldarmy1
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DallasAggie2012 said:

Thanks again for all the info OldArmy! It definitely helps seeing these charts to reinforce patterns and keys to look for when looking into various companies.

I have a little more generic question as I get going on trading options now that I have a base understanding of the actual options and their functions.

How do you find the companies or underlying's that you are trading? I know some come from interest in certain sectors, but I can get overwhelmed sometimes by the number of underlying's out there and how to whittle that down into a more reasonable watch list. I was wondering if you are normally filtering down to a smaller group of companies to look further into based on a couple different key metrics, such as implied volatility, volume, bid/ask spread, etc?
That's a long answer. I think the best way to get going on that is through videos/reading


https://www.amazon.com/Rookies-Guide-Options-Beginners-Handbook/dp/193435404X
https://www.simplertrading.com/ebook/understanding-options?utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=%7Bkeyword%7D&utm_content=sn_lot_em&utm_campaign=ebook_understanding&gclid=CNni9o-K9NACFQWnaQodg2oCYA
redsox34
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If you read the entire thread, you can begin to piece together the different things he is looking for. I think I have read this entire thread 4-5 times and each time I take away something new and informative. You tend to forget things when only reading a few new posts at a time, rather than all together.
DallasAggie2012
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Thanks oldarmy! I'll take a look into some of those that are new to me as I've pretty much tried to devour any material I find out there related to options trading and similar investing practices.

Redsox, thanks for the advice as well. I definitely go back through often and pick up new things every time as well. It's pretty much information overload on this thread. I definitely enjoy it though. This thread has pretty much changed for the better how I view my investment strategies.
oldarmy1
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Real time entry post. CHK January 20 $9 strikes at $0.13
Ragoo
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my BIL works for a large bank and we were discussing his role there. He basically manages a "fund" for them that seeks large cap, low volatility, high dividend, low P/E domestic and international companies. They then run their price projection models and sell covered calls into those targets.

I thought it was pretty neat since olarmy is doing very similar. Obviously he is being more risky in the trades since he isn't using the "stalwart" criteria like my BIL.
BT1395
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oldarmy1 said:

Real time entry post. CHK January 20 $9 strikes at $0.13
I need some help understanding this one. I'm an absolute novice at TA, but this looks like it's bordering on overbought territory. What am I missing here that would help get these call options up in value?

(I understand that we're talking about a whopping $13 per contract, but still...trying to learn from the Master!)
Bocephus
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My rule about covered calls is that I never do one with a stock I wouldn't mind owning for a few years. I sold all my CHK years ago because I thought they were so overleveraged. Has anything changed over the past couple of years?
jh0400
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Ragoo said:

my BIL works for a large bank and we were discussing his role there. He basically manages a "fund" for them that seeks large cap, low volatility, high dividend, low P/E domestic and international companies. They then run their price projection models and sell covered calls into those targets.

I thought it was pretty neat since olarmy is doing very similar. Obviously he is being more risky in the trades since he isn't using the "stalwart" criteria like my BIL.


BuyWrite funds are an interesting concept from a risk/return perspective.
bmks270
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jh0400 said:

Ragoo said:

my BIL works for a large bank and we were discussing his role there. He basically manages a "fund" for them that seeks large cap, low volatility, high dividend, low P/E domestic and international companies. They then run their price projection models and sell covered calls into those targets.

I thought it was pretty neat since olarmy is doing very similar. Obviously he is being more risky in the trades since he isn't using the "stalwart" criteria like my BIL.


BuyWrite funds are an interesting concept from a risk/return perspective.


Some interesting research out there about this strategy.

CBOE has an index that is lower volatility than S&P with about equal performance. Other studies show buy-writing under performing.

My own study of options has lead me to short put/covered call strategies. I'm still learning but I have the most success with conservative options strategies. I think you have to be flexible with your entries and have to account for Implied Volatility.

jh0400
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bmks270 said:

jh0400 said:

Ragoo said:

my BIL works for a large bank and we were discussing his role there. He basically manages a "fund" for them that seeks large cap, low volatility, high dividend, low P/E domestic and international companies. They then run their price projection models and sell covered calls into those targets.

I thought it was pretty neat since olarmy is doing very similar. Obviously he is being more risky in the trades since he isn't using the "stalwart" criteria like my BIL.


BuyWrite funds are an interesting concept from a risk/return perspective.


Some interesting research out there about this strategy.

CBOE has an index that is lower volatility than S&P with about equal performance. Other studies show buy-writing under performing.

My own study of options has lead me to short put/covered call strategies. I'm still learning but I have the most success with conservative options strategies. I think you have to be flexible with your entries and have to account for Implied Volatility.




My understanding is that the strategy has a better Sharpe ratio than a long-only index strategy due to the short position in volatility on the written call.
aggiediehard10
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Buy at open Friday Pier one, PIR, Break out and lots of volume. Buy at Breakout GTT.
Gator2_01
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BT1395 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Real time entry post. CHK January 20 $9 strikes at $0.13
I need some help understanding this one. I'm an absolute novice at TA, but this looks like it's bordering on overbought territory. What am I missing here that would help get these call options up in value?

(I understand that we're talking about a whopping $13 per contract, but still...trying to learn from the Master!)
Stocks in an uptrend stay in overbought territory for the entire uptrend. If you're looking for a breakout and strong move up you better believe you are buying an overbought stock. Then you're hoping it stays overbought for a number of months.
Gator2_01
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jh0400 is correct about the Sharpe Ratio with a Buy/Write strategy. If you're using covered calls you are essentially trading any chance of a large up move for volatility protection.

For example, lets look at General Motors (GM). Right now you can own 100 shares for $3624. You can sell a 30 Delta January call contract ($38 strike price) for ~$55. That gives you a 1.5% return for the month as long as the stock doesn't move.

If the stock moves up, your max profit occurs when the stock moves up to the strike price but no farther by the end of the options contract. Selling a $38 call would mean that your stock could move up $1.76 and it is all profit to you. Add that $176 gain to your $55 contract sale and your maximum profit is $231, or 6%, for the month. So for a month like November, where GM gained ~12%, you limit your gains to 6%.

If the stock goes down, you can withstand a 1.5% move down prior to you losing money, so you have a buffer. On top of that, if the stock is trending down you'll be able to roll your covered call down with the stock. What that means is that you buy your Call contract back for pennies and resell another 30 Delta contract. For example, if GM drops to $34.24 you'd be able to buy back your call for ~$10 and resell another contract for ~$55. Now the normal GM stock owner has lost 5.5% for the month, but you're down less than 3%.

TL;DR - Covered calls reduce your volatility by giving up some upside opportunity.

Big moves up and down can hurt you with this strategy, but if you combine covered calls, a good dividend, and some "stalwart" slow moving stocks then you can make quite good returns.
oldarmy1
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The entire model of covered calls is based on identifying resistance. Ask Joseph about netting 50% share price of a stock from 3 covered call resistance tops.

The last 2 years covered calls have been the biggest % gainers in the markets. Once we broke the Darvis box I posted to stop the covered call strategy because resistance tops one by one will be broken.

If you are simply throwing covered calls on shares now you haven't been watching.

On another note does anyone out there think the 20k magnet isn't going to result in breaking through? Why anyone would contemplate a covered call right now is nuts.

It is also why you see me posting straight call options. Doh!
oldarmy1
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PBI consolidation after initial breakout move over as it begins next move. I love it when a plan comes together!
oldarmy1
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Gator2_01 said:

BT1395 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Real time entry post. CHK January 20 $9 strikes at $0.13
I need some help understanding this one. I'm an absolute novice at TA, but this looks like it's bordering on overbought territory. What am I missing here that would help get these call options up in value?

(I understand that we're talking about a whopping $13 per contract, but still...trying to learn from the Master!)
Stocks in an uptrend stay in overbought territory for the entire uptrend. If you're looking for a breakout and strong move up you better believe you are buying an overbought stock. Then you're hoping it stays overbought for a number of months.
I don't make the rules - I make the money.

One word: Momentum
HoustonAg2014
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OldArmy, can you give me your thoughts on PSX? I've been following it for years and it's been good to me. Seems to follow Crude pretty closely although it's what I would call a fully integrated downstream play. I'm not sure how to value it and it isn't a risky play but is very streaky and I call a for a breakout at around high 79s to mid 80 and again around 85. The company has had a rough year comparatively year over year. Do you think too out is at 89-90 or does it have room to run?

Also interested in FNBC. Got in at 8.82 went up to 9.90 and I put a stop limit in on pre market before the FED announced and it has crashed and burned since. Is there a good entry level for this stock? Never do this but I took advice from a friend without researching it and was riding "high" for a couple days but didn't want to lose my shirt so I put that stop in. He bought in at 6 and never exited thinking it was a take over target.

Sorry for the length but really enjoy your analysis as well as others on here. Most valuable thread on texags.
oldarmy1
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Aggiesincebirth said:

OldArmy, can you give me your thoughts on PSX? I've been following it for years and it's been good to me. Seems to follow Crude pretty closely although it's what I would call a fully integrated downstream play. I'm not sure how to value it and it isn't a risky play but is very streaky and I call a for a breakout at around high 79s to mid 80 and again around 85. The company has had a rough year comparatively year over year. Do you think too out is at 89-90 or does it have room to run?

Also interested in FNBC. Got in at 8.82 went up to 9.90 and I put a stop limit in on pre market before the FED announced and it has crashed and burned since. Is there a good entry level for this stock? Never do this but I took advice from a friend without researching it and was riding "high" for a couple days but didn't want to lose my shirt so I put that stop in. He bought in at 6 and never exited thinking it was a take over target.

Sorry for the length but really enjoy your analysis as well as others on here. Most valuable thread on texags.
Appreciate the kind words and agree that there are some solid investors and traders on here. PSX doesn't look like it has any troubles at all. A very positive trend. Obvious higher trend lows keeping it in place with large volume support when challenged.

Disclaimer: Core holding stock

oldarmy1
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FNBC you ask? If not now, when??? Look at that volume. Unless it's about to go belly up (I haven't researched) load up. Last resistance just below $10 needing to be broken for the potential reverse (upside down) Head & Shoulders to catch fire.

I took a long term snap shot because I actually saw this as a short trade end of 2015 on that bearish head and shoulder. I went with some others but they all turned out about the same, so no worries.

bmks270
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I can now say I have applied what I have learned in this thread with some positive outcomes. It seems after following this thread long enough some things just stuck and is beginning to emerge in my trading decisions. The most significant concept I have gotten from this thread is the significance of volume. Thanks to all who contribute.
oldarmy1
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bmks270 said:

I can now say I have applied what I have learned in this thread with some positive outcomes. It seems after following this thread long enough some things just stuck and is beginning to emerge in my trading decisions. The most significant concept I have gotten from this thread is the significance of volume. Thanks to all who contribute.
VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME - charts don't lie and big money can't hide.
oldarmy1
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We've discussed the big round numbers acting like a magnet for markets. Stocks that hit in the $90's have a 89% move to $100 within 60 days since 1955. Those odds are remarkable in a world where no one can time the markets. Michael Burke was the first person I read who made that observation, although he didn't explain why.

The explanation I developed is based on common sense. Institutions can buy larger blocks without upsetting supply and demand combined with the psychology of big round numbers. Burke also noted that stocks tend to move fastest between $80-$120. Beyond institutional trading I see this as a combination of the magnet rule and then the euphoria around breaking through that psychological number creating the "flash" move upward, although more than 77% will flash and then fail back below the $100 mark within 5 days. But that's another trader short discussion opportunity for another time.

Staying focused on the magnet trade we have DOW 20k staring us in the face. Knowing everything we now know the odds overwhelming tell us we will hit DOW 20k before any significant pullback occurs. That's the key, especially considering it took 2 years to move from 18k to 19k, yet only 44 days to move from 19k to within striking distance of 20k. Do you get the picture? If not look at the actual picture!


Checking the historical DOW magnet we see that only in 2011 did the DOW magnet rule fail as it came within 160 points of 13k but ended up failing as we went into a 11 month bear market. Separately note the volume bars signaling tops or bottoms with tremendous accuracy. The 2009 end of a lengthy bear market was my highest returns in my trading life. Not only did we have a pure volume signal occurring we had about the best inverse (bullish) head and shoulders the markets ever produced. It was one of the rare times I was 100% invested.



That leaves us with the current 20k DOW magnet staring us in the face. What would be a catalyst for sending us over 20k? Anyone? Buehler? Let's ask it a different way. What upcoming emotional event could occur resulting in a relief rally to combine with the magnet rule to send us over 20k? Anyone?


Will check back in for answers before finishing my thoughts.
SlackerAg
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New home construction/sales numbers?
Pasquale Liucci
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Electors place their votes Monday.
Gator2_01
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Based on the results from election day, I'd say inauguration.
oldarmy1
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tx-ags14 said:

Electors place their votes Monday.
I'm gonna go with you on this one, although the other two are solid contenders. In fact, the real question becomes after 20k DOW is hit where is the consolidation top or even a sell off top going to come. We could hit the mark on one of those and then sell off on the other.

I'm going to be taking a decent hedge position Monday to hold onto for the next week based on the incredible near vertical move from 18k to 19k DOW combined with the massive volume which, as we have learned, tells us big money is super active. That volume shouldn't be ignored as bottoms and tops always occur around these major spikes.
Pasquale Liucci
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When you're hedging an almost certain move up like the 20k target (probably a lot of emotion and euphoria driving this last leg as you hit on), how do you accomplish that? Buy cheap SPY puts a few strikes out of money in hopes that you can sell them into consolidation sell off knowing that your downside is very limited and well defined?
oldarmy1
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Exactly. If it hits the 19750 mark becomes a good target. Markets don't have to get there for hedges to pay. It's all about looking for a quick retracement that shoots those cheap premiums upward.
bmks270
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What hours do you typically place trades and how do you go about your execution? Do you hear set some price triggers before the open and walk away? Do you watch the market all day by the computer?
bmks270
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Not trying to be political, just thought this chart was interesting.

oldarmy1
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20k approaching. Looking for a follow through momentum move that could carry it upward to 20250-350, so depending on volumes along the way is when I'll be eyeing hedge moves. Fun stuff!
cgh1999
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PBI at 16!
oldarmy1
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cgh1999 said:

PBI at 16!
Lot of stocks are right at last resistance tops like a bunch of children waiting for the last school bell before Christmas break.

I'll be on a flight to Chicago tomorrow, with last meetings of the year, so count on 20k since I most likely won't get to enjoy seeing it happen. It's a curse.

Also, CIE on its next wave upward. Those are 30%+ moves on each wave.
Jack Boyett
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ktownag08
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Established a position in OSIR today on the dip.

Side note: This thread has been great! I've learned a lot and made some money. Win-win! Thanks OldArmy and many others!
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