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Burdizzo
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In reply to pfo • 1:28p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
FOMC not forecasting inflation of 2% until 2018! Anybody here think the Fed can forecast the economy 2 months out much less 3 years out.

I just don't see how the growth in our economy accelerates until taxes and regulations are lowered.


This has been my opinion since Dodd-Frank
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oldarmy1
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1:35p, 9/21/16
AG
Key number is 18250 on DOW and 2154 on S&P to break the mid channel resistance. Lot of pop and fade occurring indicating selling the bounces intraday follows the day over day trend we've been seeing. Common sense would say that is big sellers taking money off the table with each day and intraday highs failing. HOWEVER - It could also be short sellers at the midline, so its a wait and see for me.


2154 S&P corrected...sorry.
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Comanche_Ag
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:03p, 9/21/16
AG
It's trying hard to break that 2154
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In reply to Burdizzo • 2:05p, 9/21/16
oldarmy1
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In reply to Comanche_Ag • 2:06p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
It's trying hard to break that 2154
BOOM!
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oldarmy1
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2:16p, 9/21/16
AG
DOW follows S&P signal by triggering 18250....too easy folks.
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0708aggie
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2:18p, 9/21/16
AG
whats the next step. earlier you said to take the opposite direction of what the initial reaction is. Are you saying to short?
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MavsAg
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2:19p, 9/21/16
AG
With the fed not raising rates is today a good time to buy VIX?
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claym711
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2:21p, 9/21/16
AG
VIX is rarely a good buy. It's a hedge.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to 0708aggie • 2:33p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
whats the next step. earlier you said to take the opposite direction of what the initial reaction is. Are you saying to short?
Nope...there wasn't a knee-jerk reaction....markets percolated within daily established range and then made a very steady move to those key technical marks. Now that those are breached the upper channel should be tested. That means the big gap down on Sept 8 to 9th getting filled. The way I trade it is to always be selling at the mid point of the gap. On S&P that would be 2173 area.
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oldarmy1
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2:46p, 9/21/16
AG
Here is S&P with yellow around the chart leading up to the announcement. Actually moved higher into announcement with a quick peak and drop after announcement back to pre-build up before moving higher. First trading entry with higher risk would be right when the announcement peak got broken, the low risk entry was on the posted technicals.

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oldarmy1
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2:52p, 9/21/16
AG
You want to see an intraday short squeeze just pull up most market charts. Here is S&P:

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oldarmy1
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3:02p, 9/21/16
AG
Mastertrader for today is Jeff. Spotted the forming head of that S&P reverse head and shoulders and entered futures. Just sold them right at the peak. Made over 25% in under an hour. Told him I was a coward and only entered once technical marks broke.

Solid stuff Jeff!
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Comanche_Ag
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3:07p, 9/21/16
AG
It's awesome to be able to read this thread while watching the charts in real-time.


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Comanche_Ag
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3:09p, 9/21/16
AG
Did that reverse head and shoulders kind of look like a cup and handle as well?
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3rd and 2
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In reply to Comanche_Ag • 3:12p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
Did that reverse head and shoulders kind of look like a cup and handle as well?
Looked more like a squirrel sitting on top of an elephant
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Comanche_Ag • 3:15p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
Did that reverse head and shoulders kind of look like a cup and handle as well?
Yessir. Understand that the right side of most H&S is going to leave you with that
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aggiemetal
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 3:28p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
Mastertrader for today is Jeff. Spotted the forming head of that S&P reverse head and shoulders and entered futures. Just sold them right at the peak. Made over 25% in under an hour. Told him I was a coward and only entered once technical marks broke.

Solid stuff Jeff!
you're too kind...i took all off yesterday and was gonna wait for the FED dust to settle to completely reload, hoping for a nice liquidation break after expected idiotic/positive FED news (in honesty even had we not gotten the pullback I'd have gone in with poorer location) but God threw one my way today with the pullback, got short -60 /ES puts for a helluva ride, able to get in low (BIG) and then close high

pulled half off at that the close and then tacked on a short future to hedge those puts so now I'm delta neutral and the hedge (that I can ride free and clear for about 30+ points if we happen to shoot up, w/ previous basis I've built)

It's always a fun game but days like today are just awesome . . . was really nice, as I had to pull out a big chunk into our bank account today and even after that I was still over where I started the day in my Net Liq

I can't technical like Randy, in fact I can't much technical other than awereness of price volume levels, but he's a helluva wingman
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oldarmy1
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In reply to 3rd and 2 • 3:35p, 9/21/16
AG
quote:
quote:
Did that reverse head and shoulders kind of look like a cup and handle as well?
Looked more like a squirrel sitting on top of an elephant
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aggiemetal
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4:11p, 9/21/16
AG
interesting the close today on the /ES (S&P futures) was to the tick, the high mark we hit on 9/12 Monday, following that big correction the previous Friday . . .it actually took it out a little before that, so that means that poor high (a mark that just gets touched before but has no follow through) was repaired

doesn't mean we're shooting higher for sure but it was a necessary step to get traction if we're going to crawl back to previous levels or take them out

nothing playable in that just good info to carry forward when looking at the tape day to day
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oldarmy1
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8:43a, 9/22/16
AG
The S&P pre-breakdown gap has now been filled. That was quick. Now the focus shifts to challenge of last previous high prior to that mark above 2187. If that breaks then a challenge of all time high on S&P becomes the focus.

Note the immediate pullback shortly after the gap filled. Typical trader activity taking profits on technicals. Haven't spotted any major volume lots to indicate strong resistance topping probability.

DOW close to filling the gap.
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oldarmy1
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8:55a, 9/22/16
AG
Of course today created a gap on the open. Appreciate having the next pullback target big money!
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oldarmy1
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9:30a, 9/22/16
AG
NASDAQ all time highs after a gap and move.
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oldarmy1
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9:36a, 9/22/16
AG
GG broke out. Lot of upside potential for it.
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3rd and 2
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9:58a, 9/22/16
AG
Sold November $850 Call on my Amazon Stock... Also sold two $800 puts on Amazon, even money at $766.
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0708aggie
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10:13a, 9/22/16
AG
army, are you buying GG here? By that I really mean, please explain the trade.
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claym711
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In reply to claym711 • 10:33a, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
Here are a couple of macro views on TLT and intraday











TLT at 137.15 currently. Break 137.27 and 138-140 range can come quickly.

My trade on this was options. Bought 138 calls when TLT was at 134.35. Beware, bond options are pretty low volume and extremely volitile
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oldarmy1
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In reply to 0708aggie • 10:42a, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
army, are you buying GG here? By that I really mean, please explain the trade.
Oct 14th $18.50 strikes at 22 cents, to be specific. Current bid/ask is 22x26
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oldarmy1
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11:00a, 9/22/16
AG
High risk trade CIE hit exact support mark set August 11th and note the volume increase. Today it moved above recent range resistance. When it broke August 29th lowest range support on September 13th I sold $1 covered calls. Cleaned those off on that August 11th low holding on volume, added a larger position Sept. 15th and now on straight hold with breakout coming off of the lows.

My whole goal is to plant it as a net free holding through trading and then let it do whatever it can do longer term.

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Comanche_Ag
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1:35p, 9/22/16
AG
VIX dropped below 12 and I missed it!
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oldarmy1
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1:41p, 9/22/16
AG
ATW....just sayin
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Comanche_Ag
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:01p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
ATW....just sayin

Trying to guess what you're looking at...any of these fit the bill?

- Buy volume increase at $6 bottom
- Consecutive gap up days
- Tight trading range today
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Comanche_Ag • 2:08p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
quote:
ATW....just sayin

Trying to guess what you're looking at...any of these fit the bill?

- Buy volume increase at $6 bottom
- Consecutive gap up days
- Tight trading range today
Oh nothing really. I had queried the stock on its low day. Pure technical said that was a buy on the stock but the industry people gave good insight into the fundamentals. It's a good demonstration of how shares do not follow fundamentals and even logic.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to Comanche_Ag • 2:09p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
VIX dropped below 12 and I missed it!
Your VIX is at $11.89. I don't need the hedge currently and not sure that we still won't see closer to $10.
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pfo
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:34p, 9/22/16
AG
quote:
GG broke out. Lot of upside potential for it.


Thanks oldarmy!!! Buying GG now.
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