Wow Twtr
Stock Markets
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Last: 12 min ago by El_duderino
quote:
Wow Twtr
Look at first post on last page. Guess who didn't buy...
quote:HA! Well to be fair the takeover talk is what created the quick rebound. If that doesn't get some validity from credible sources then it will sink into recent range until midway or so through this next quarter IMO.quote:
Wow Twtr
Look at first post on last page. Guess who didn't buy...
I got back from vacation and just sold covered calls for the 2nd time on those non-core holdings shares so no complaints here.
Haven't looked at much else so will be diving into catch up. Quick Macro look at the current pullback and see that the expected gap fill Jun 13th/14th was completed and we found some support.
quote:I bought. Feel like I should have bought more.
Looking into Oil for a swing trade now. Didn't quite make the 38 level, but that is one huge iH&S now on the daily
All Bear ETF's have broken below previous lows. So much for that sideways range thing. 
This is what it means when saying "buy the dips with confidence on stocks".
This is what it means when saying "buy the dips with confidence on stocks".
Suggest that ppl check institutional YTD market cash flows and compare that to ETF cash flows. Retailers piling in. Especially on a day like today - check that net volume. Just be sure you know your stops if you're going long up here.
quote:
Suggest that ppl check institutional YTD market cash flows and compare that to ETF cash flows. Retailers piling in. Especially on a day like today - check that net volume. Just be sure you know your stops if you're going long up here.
True. If you bought the dips then a VIX hedge down at $11.30 looks good.
quote:
Welcome back, oldarmy. We missed you!
In case you missed my questions while you were gone, I've copied and pasted them here again:
oldarmy, several times you've alluded to multiple signals you have that warn you of macro changes in the market. Would you mind sharing what those signals are so? I'm looking to develop my own signals as well.
Low interest rates have forced me into the market, but I hate that fact. The market today is smoke and mirrors and will not end well. Although I am forced to invest in the market, I'd like as much warning as possible on when to exit.
You've been great about giving us heads up, but you may not be around when it's time to call the cows back home.
Thanks in advance, buddy.
Appreciate it, JJMT. I'll begin throwing some of the littany of variables used this weekend.
Not quite sure what drives oldarmy to share his wealth of hard earned knowledge with us common folk but I, for one, am grateful.
Going to be a little longer to post response. Hurricane that grazed Honduras and went into Belize resulted in requiring some site direction.
Old army,
Rook here.. Vix dropped below 11.10 (before you had stated to look for that.. Is it a buy opportunity?
Rook here.. Vix dropped below 11.10 (before you had stated to look for that.. Is it a buy opportunity?
US productivity drops again for a third straight quarter. Our economy is so fragile I see no way the US can withstand a rise in interest rates or the increased taxes being proposed by Hillary. I anticipate more money printing worldwide (which won't work but it's all they know) and the bull market in gold and silver to continue.
quote:Yes! In fact look back a page and I didn't wait for breaking into $10's before started buying.
Old army,
Rook here.. Vix dropped below 11.10 (before you had stated to look for that.. Is it a buy opportunity?
Apologies again. Really busy right now. Also, I'm trying to come up with an organized method of giving the multitude of variables. We've got fund dollar flow, short shares volume, sell/buy flow, larger lot (# of shares) measurements, Option Theta/Delta change, Bond valuations, Commodity variation, FOMC monetary policy, PPI, Consumer Confidence, on and on and on it goes.
It's not only having all of the variables understood; its the programming all of those into the model. So the best I can do is give the list of everything and then remember that all of that info ultimately will require volume and lot size/trade for confirmation of what it's telling me.
It's not only having all of the variables understood; its the programming all of those into the model. So the best I can do is give the list of everything and then remember that all of that info ultimately will require volume and lot size/trade for confirmation of what it's telling me.
Those asking on SBUX this is a good entry with a $55 stop. A whopping 20 cents/share risk entering at $55.20.
For those with more limited trading capital (I was there once too) my approach on a trade like SBUX would be enter at $55.20 it bounced to $55.40 sending the weekly $55 Puts down to $0.14 cents. So assume 1000 shares held at $55.40 you are up $200. For $140 you can have a protective Put guaranteeing no loss at $55.
If the macro markets take a larger pullback all stocks would challenge recent low support and likely move below it. Well with the $55 Put you have many options (pun intended). Should SBUX move to say $54 you are guaranteed $55 on the Put. You could also reassess the markets and SBUX and decide to sell the PUT netting you the equivalent of the share holding loss (or even better).
If the macro markets take a larger pullback all stocks would challenge recent low support and likely move below it. Well with the $55 Put you have many options (pun intended). Should SBUX move to say $54 you are guaranteed $55 on the Put. You could also reassess the markets and SBUX and decide to sell the PUT netting you the equivalent of the share holding loss (or even better).
What consideration do you make for IV when going long on the weekly? Do you have any methods for identifying when the IV and likely price moves are not aligned?
quote:Please help me understand what your asking. I didn't post to buy a call option (going long) but are you asking if that would have been a good way to go, and if so, how the implied volatility factors play into that?
What consideration do you make for IV when going long on the weekly? Do you have any methods for identifying when the IV and likely price moves are not aligned?
Well how do you have 1,000 shares at $15.40?
And wouldn't the max loss at $55 share price be $340? Not "no loss"?
And wouldn't the max loss at $55 share price be $340? Not "no loss"?
quote:Doh! That should have been $55.40 (corrected)....and you are right in if the shares fell to $55 right at the close of trading Friday then the option would expire with no value. The basis for the Put trade is based on it being Tuesday and holding shares overnight being the risk. If we came out tomorrow bright red on markets then SBUX could open at $54 or worse, so with 4 days (3 now) it is an acceptable trade-off. Good point on total max loss if everything moved precisely at the wrong time.
Well how do you have 1,000 shares at $15.40?
And wouldn't the max loss at $55 share price be $340? Not "no loss"?
Okay that is a little more clear, this was meant to be a 24 hour trade, with a put to protect against overnight downward move if you hold over night.
Looking at P and L $340 max loss out of $55,200 is about 0.6%. Your target profit was $200+? Correct. So max loss is really small percent though worst case so unlikely, and quick profit of 0.36% on a $0.20 move, chance for more, or less as put will lose value.
If you enter and exit in the same day where do you set a stop loss? Maybe $55.00?
Are these P and L percentages typical for your 24 hour trading strategies?
If you enter and exit in the same day where do you set a stop loss? Maybe $55.00?
Are these P and L percentages typical for your 24 hour trading strategies?
The target is not $200. That was the current profit when entering the protective Put. The goal is to hold the shares overnight looking for the bounce move higher. If SBUX bounces upward as expected when entering the trade then assuming 1000 shares held gives you choices on exiting. For example I would expect a fairly quick move above $56. So that would be 80 cents or $800 from entry. If I was ultra conservative I could sell 500 shares banking $400 thus offsetting the $140 Put giving a $260 profit. You'd also have a $400 additional profit in the remaining 500 shares and still have that Put protection to give you cover through Friday.
Now I would not sell 500 shares at $56. The shares I bought at $55.20 when posted have no hedge either. I was confident in the trade and was describing how thise with limited capital might approach the trade. My target for selling this trade is $56.75. That doesn't mean I won't be selling a portion of the trade along the way. I trade just a little more than 1000 shares used in the illustration.
I don't post my partial sells but everyone should be aware than I am a big proponent of taking an early partial profit when the trade moves in my favor quickly. Back to the 1000 share example. Let's say we pretty much know $56 gets hit. With no Put you can sell 500 shares booking $400 and then your remaining 500 shares could be held knowing your net entry price is $1.25 lower than where you entered the trade. Nothing makes a guy happier than knowing a stock would have to trade below recent lows, where everyone else bought.
Love that old addage "I got wealthy taking some profits too soon".
Now I would not sell 500 shares at $56. The shares I bought at $55.20 when posted have no hedge either. I was confident in the trade and was describing how thise with limited capital might approach the trade. My target for selling this trade is $56.75. That doesn't mean I won't be selling a portion of the trade along the way. I trade just a little more than 1000 shares used in the illustration.
I don't post my partial sells but everyone should be aware than I am a big proponent of taking an early partial profit when the trade moves in my favor quickly. Back to the 1000 share example. Let's say we pretty much know $56 gets hit. With no Put you can sell 500 shares booking $400 and then your remaining 500 shares could be held knowing your net entry price is $1.25 lower than where you entered the trade. Nothing makes a guy happier than knowing a stock would have to trade below recent lows, where everyone else bought.
Love that old addage "I got wealthy taking some profits too soon".
TWTR $19.23 premarket
From a stock strength stanpoint the quick recovery from post earnings to hit new trend highs above pre-earnings trend highs should be a signal to even the novice traders of underlying strength
From a stock strength stanpoint the quick recovery from post earnings to hit new trend highs above pre-earnings trend highs should be a signal to even the novice traders of underlying strength
Further Breakdown of the approach is helpful. Many thanks.
quote:No problem!
Further Breakdown of the approach is helpful. Many thanks.
To finish out the final way that ultra conservative path would have worked out we'd have to look at where we were just prior to closing. You are into the shares at $55.20. You have a stop at $55, because technically it should not get there. As we approach the close we look at the stock price $55.62 and THEN make a decision on the Put option. It would need to be a pretty bad morning on futures to see SBUX challenge $55 from $55.62 so even the ultra conservative trader might just hold serve. However, the purpose of these low cost Put's is NOT to preserve profits but PROTECT underlying capital.
Looking at the $55 Put expiring tomorrow it had dropped down to only 9 cents or $90 for 1000 shares protection. So the formula looked even more attractive. Right now I would be eyeing the $55.50's at 14 cents if I had no other Puts. Then you actually have created a hedge on capital protection PLUS guaranteed a little profit if the markets turned on you. Again, this is showing how people with capital preservation or low risk tolerance can still trade successfully.
quote:
For those with more limited trading capital (I was there once too) my approach on a trade like SBUX would be enter at $55.20 it bounced to $55.40 sending the weekly $55 Puts down to $0.14 cents. So assume 1000 shares held at $55.40 you are up $200. For $140 you can have a protective Put guaranteeing no loss at $55.
If the macro markets take a larger pullback all stocks would challenge recent low support and likely move below it. Well with the $55 Put you have many options (pun intended). Should SBUX move to say $54 you are guaranteed $55 on the Put. You could also reassess the markets and SBUX and decide to sell the PUT netting you the equivalent of the share holding loss (or even better).
Yes, because people with 'limited trading capital' can trade with 55k.
Assuming proper position sizing, that means the trading account has around $1 million. Which eliminates almost all of this board, and this board is way more well off than the majority of America.
quote:I know what a gallon of milk cost. Once I developed the above listed approach I'd trade as much 75% of working capital. That's why I laid out the strategy to begin with! Proper position is irrelevant with strategic disciplines.quote:
For those with more limited trading capital (I was there once too) my approach on a trade like SBUX would be enter at $55.20 it bounced to $55.40 sending the weekly $55 Puts down to $0.14 cents. So assume 1000 shares held at $55.40 you are up $200. For $140 you can have a protective Put guaranteeing no loss at $55.
If the macro markets take a larger pullback all stocks would challenge recent low support and likely move below it. Well with the $55 Put you have many options (pun intended). Should SBUX move to say $54 you are guaranteed $55 on the Put. You could also reassess the markets and SBUX and decide to sell the PUT netting you the equivalent of the share holding loss (or even better).
Yes, because people with 'limited trading capital' can trade with 55k.
Assuming proper position sizing, that means the trading account has around $1 million. Which eliminates almost all of this board, and this board is way more well off than the majority of America.
OldArmy , would you buy VIX here at 11.65 or should I wait until it comes back down to low 11's?
by buying VIX, do you guys mean VXX?
quote:Wait. Profits should have been locked in on the low $11 buys already.
OldArmy , would you buy VIX here at 11.65 or should I wait until it comes back down to low 11's?
quote:Drey - He is referencing the volatility index. Sometimes shown as $VIX
by buying VIX, do you guys mean VXX?
I didn't buy in the low 11's. Looking for an entry point and was wondering the if I should wait.
Yep, I get that. I'm just checking on the mechanism to bet with or against the VIX. Thanks
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