For passive investments / 401k, too late to move out of diversified stock ETFs to bonds or should just ride the wave now?

Note - 20+ years away from "retirement age"

We're a lot closer to highs than to a low bottom. This EU impact is a wild card. If futures hold here ot deteriorate further the support levels will have been broken. If we don't see a reversal today back above 2020 S&P then all bets are off.

Another challenge with most 401k's is that they settle based on end of day numbers. You can't get out, so whatever you do wait until last 30 minutes. If reversed then hang in there and look for exit on a swing bounce.

BTW- we've lost all gains in 2016 now. So if you've just hung in the market you're a little lower than where you started. No one happy not to see growth in retirement accounts.

If you got out on initial warnings your about 7% above that. Also not great. The premise however is how much tbe variance between those two approaches increase. I do know those who have been out have much less angst over their monies for now.

Uh oh

So the market is down another 1%+, but the VIX has hardly moved...

So I have about $20k from a 401k rollover I did about 8-10 weeks ago that transferred to, and still is in, a cash position.

I have 30 years until retirement.. should I be putting that money into the market right now? My overall account just took a huge hit. (-3.5%)
Any suggestions for long term hold?

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Just keep buying and "$ cost avg"

Just like in 08/09... as long as you just kept buying you ended up just fine.... the only people who lost were folks that tried to time the market...sold....and then waited too long to buy...missing all the recovery gains.

Just keep buying (ESPECIALLY in the types of accounts youre describing)

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Sarcasm? Quick example: the last bear cycle I had taken my dad's 401k to cash and bought back in and when moved back out last year he had realized 329% gains or 63%/year avg. Please post your 5 year performance as a %. I'll take my approach.

Not sarcasm at all.

I'll just use BRKs 5 year return: 13.06%


Best of luck to you continuing to time the market. Odds are..... what they are

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So the market is down another 1%+, but the VIX has hardly moved...

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VIX quotes are sometimes off. Look at VXX.

I'd NOT drop all that money into the market this very second.

I'd pick some amount of time 12mo 18mo 24mo... pick an investment period 2, 4, 8 weeks... and "dollar cost average" across that time frame.

Just me... and how I'd do it... you can make (and lose) a lot more money doing it other ways.

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So the market is down another 1%+, but the VIX has hardly moved...

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VIX quotes are sometimes off. Look at VXX.

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Looks like it has caught up...VIX products are ripping higher again.

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Just keep buying and "$ cost avg"

Just like in 08/09... as long as you just kept buying you ended up just fine.... the only people who lost were folks that tried to time the market...sold....and then waited too long to buy...missing all the recovery gains.

Just keep buying (ESPECIALLY in the types of accounts youre describing)

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Sarcasm? Quick example: the last bear cycle I had taken my dad's 401k to cash and bought back in and when moved back out last year he had realized 329% gains or 63%/year avg. Please post your 5 year performance as a %. I'll take my approach.

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He didn't say if you sold and bought back in that you lost (the way you apparently comprehended it and felt obliged to prove him wrong).. he said the only ones that did lose are the ones who did this.

In other words, if you stayed in, you didn't lose.. myself included. I didn't touch anything in 08/09 (I pumped a lot in during that time), and I came out with near 100% return by 2010.

With this clean break of 200Ma and a clean close below it, we're going to those key levels of 1893,1868,then 1820 in my opinion. The 10 year at 1.46 is ridiculous.

I don't know what's going to happen but I know these currency moves are crazy and when currencies starting acting like this its ugly.

I'm trying to use those currency moves as reference for what may happen here. CNY went from $6.40 to around $6.60 which was the beginning of the market fall last time.

This time, the pound is getting slammed and this morning BofA cut their Chinese GDP forecast and gave a weaker outlook on CNY. In my opinion, this is a continuation of the scary Chinese headlines that spooked the market with some Brexit added to it. So if the market got scared and fell last time, then it should again.

Add to that nobody knows who is going to run England and the United States going forward. A lot of headline risk to take this down.

Nothing is scarier to me than bonds. IMO bonds are returnless risk. And I don't think paper money is safe for the long haul either (of course short term it's safe). With worldwide economies in the tank and foolish government officials seemingly willing to try and QE away serious policy and structural problems I expect more money printing here and abroad.

As far as buying now into American markets, I would wait. We are so near highs and S&P earnings are falling.

My dear old dad once told me the investors who jumped from buildings during the great depression weren't those fully invested at the start of the crash but were those who kept buying because they thought stocks couldn't go lower.

I always keep plenty of cash on hand to weather a multi year beating. No one understands the true value of liquidity until they don't have it.

VIX tracks options. VIX ETFs and ETNs track futures. Most basic explanation. So when VIX is down alongside SPX, put options are being sold cheap (betting higher, or at least heavy hedging). That gives you days like this where VIX is down big while UVXY is up. The beauty, for getting short UVXY, is that if/when there is a rebound UVXY will sell off very hard compared to VIX, you'll get a corresponding move plus roll.

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VIX tracks options. VIX ETFs and ETNs track futures. Most basic explanation. So when VIX is down alongside SPX, put options are being sold cheap (betting higher, or at least heavy hedging). That gives you days like this where VIX is down big while UVXY is up. The beauty, for getting short UVXY, is that if/when there is a rebound UVXY will sell off very hard compared to VIX, you'll get a corresponding move plus roll.

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Very clear and concise information!

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VIX tracks options. VIX ETFs and ETNs track futures. Most basic explanation. So when VIX is down alongside SPX, put options are being sold cheap (betting higher, or at least heavy hedging). That gives you days like this where VIX is down big while UVXY is up. The beauty, for getting short UVXY, is that if/when there is a rebound UVXY will sell off very hard compared to VIX, you'll get a corresponding move plus roll.

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anybody have an updated graphic?

Any recommomendations for bond ETFs or funds that should perform nicely during this period of uncertainty? Muni's, junk, etc?

Everyone is talking doomsday, but isn't it grand how the market has settled around the nice round numbers of 2000/17k today. Maybe some new resistance in a post-Brexit world

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Everyone is talking doomsday, but isn't it grand how the market has settled around the nice round numbers of 2000/17k today. Maybe some new resistance in a post-Brexit world

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You mean support?

Po-tae-to, Po-tah-to

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Po-tae-to, Po-tah-to

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Anyone else thinking we gap up tomorrow and hit 2020 before fading?

I think a rebound to 2020 looms if we get oversold conditions tomorrow. Right now looks like a wave 5 within a larger wave 3 down AH or tomorrow, then a potential rebound to test 2020, but that can change quickly

The Nikkei just bounced like 300pts in 20 minutes. I don't see any news except China bringing down the Yuan to $6.65.

One thing is for certain. When governments are faced with economic problems they all devalue their paper currencies.

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Anyone else thinking we gap up tomorrow and hit 2020 before fading?

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First half of your thinking is in play.