Looks like shorting VIX yesterday could have made you some money today. Due to lack of knowledge of how to actually place the order, I didn't do it (naturally).

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I want to learn how to do what y'all do so badly. How did you all start? How old were you when you began learning?

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I would suggest all with interest and this mindset track down Aggiemetal (Jeff). I coached him through the first 6 months and he took to it like a bird dog on a covey of quail. He'll need to ramp down the sophisticated approach he has progressed to for starters, but he can point you to the best reading and systems.

I have zero time at this point for doing so again other than these few postings.

p.s. When I say "track down" I mean ask him to post all of the above for all to access. He won't have time to mentor since he's left his job and is focused on trading full time. I trust everyone can respect that..

Ditto

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Thanks OA1, I think I speak for everyone following this thread when I say that we very much appreciate you sharing your knowledge and perspective on here. Good bull.

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Ditto.

Is it time to short SPY? Short term or long term? What metrics can be used to determine which strike price to pick?

Well, that UVXY short worked out pretty well...

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I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%.

Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now.

To be clear, when I keep saying "sell half of your Puts or cover 50% of your shorts" that means if you shorted 1000 shares you covered 500. For example IBB 1000 short shares at $283 and cover 500 at $260, booking $23 for 500 shares. Last top posted it had made it back to $283 so short 1000 shares. It reached $260 couple of days ago so cover 500 shares for another $23/share profit. You now hold 1000 short shares with $23/share security ABOVE $283. In other words, the goal is to build a short position during this sideways action using the upper resistance as your security shield.

BTW - look at volume today on IBB....either another support bounce coming off $260 area OR if the greater market breaks down then it goes with it. I'd trade Call options on the cheap here st $275 strike.

Happy Trading!

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Hmmmm

Holy futures crashing.

Looks like 18K was the top like Old Army said. The trader in me says market crashing because it reached the tradeable top again and couldn't break. The Brexit is just noise.

U.S dollar surging, oil falling hard

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I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%.

Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now.

To be clear, when I keep saying "sell half of your Puts or cover 50% of your shorts" that means if you shorted 1000 shares you covered 500. For example IBB 1000 short shares at $283 and cover 500 at $260, booking $23 for 500 shares. Last top posted it had made it back to $283 so short 1000 shares. It reached $260 couple of days ago so cover 500 shares for another $23/share profit. You now hold 1000 short shares with $23/share security ABOVE $283. In other words, the goal is to build a short position during this sideways action using the upper resistance as your security shield.

BTW - look at volume today on IBB....either another support bounce coming off $260 area OR if the greater market breaks down then it goes with it. I'd trade Call options on the cheap here st $275 strike.

Happy Trading!

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Hmmmm

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Markets got pressed by the wild EU push forcing short covering action from the novices. That last 100 point spike late in the day was about as easy as it gets. What it did do is gave yet another pure short opportunity on the magic number. Hmmmm....shoot me.

is this like the hysteria over Greece where it's all been forgotten?

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Holy futures crashing.

Looks like 18K was the top like Old Army said. The trader in me says market crashing because it reached the tradeable top again and couldn't break. The Brexit is just noise.

U.S dollar surging, oil falling hard

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Yet oil stocks all went up...

Oil stocks went up in today's trading. The oil fall happened in the after hours. oil stocks will be down tomorrow when our markets open.

This is a bigger deal. The rise of European Nationalism and collapse of EU will be damaging for the market.

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Oil stocks went up in today's trading. The oil fall happened in the after hours. oil stocks will be down tomorrow when our markets open.

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If vote ends at stay it will be interesting to watch futures overnight into first hour of trading. Lot of emotion shown in the market moves creates the one un-readable, un-chartable variables. I shorted into close based on the 18k mark and have now taken advantage of the night time ES positions hedging a bullish emotion driven relief pop. If markets do show bright green futures into the opening bell then the 1st 30 minutes will be critical. At the end of the day a new high on the markets would initiate cover orders and the sideways action that has been easily trad-able is over.

If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side.

But EU was struggling anyway, with Greece as an example, maybe the top producers leaving and cutting the leeches loose will be better for the world economies.

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Oil stocks went up in today's trading. The oil fall happened in the after hours. oil stocks will be down tomorrow when our markets open.

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If vote ends at stay it will be interesting to watch futures overnight into first hour of trading. Lot of emotion shown in the market moves creates the one un-readable, un-chartable variables. I shorted into close based on the 18k mark and have now taken advantage of the night time ES positions hedging a bullish emotion driven relief pop. If markets do show bright green futures into the opening bell then the 1st 30 minutes will be critical. At the end of the day a new high on the markets would initiate cover orders and the sideways action that has been easily trad-able is over.

If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side.

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Is the tanking just a self fulfilling prophecy?

Think of this like the bank bailout. If we didn't do the bailout, it would have been really ugly in the near future. A vote out will be similar but might work out in the longer term but the medicine will suck.

And who knows, this might lead those crazies Euros to start another World War.

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Oil stocks went up in today's trading. The oil fall happened in the after hours. oil stocks will be down tomorrow when our markets open.

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If vote ends at stay it will be interesting to watch futures overnight into first hour of trading. Lot of emotion shown in the market moves creates the one un-readable, un-chartable variables. I shorted into close based on the 18k mark and have now taken advantage of the night time ES positions hedging a bullish emotion driven relief pop. If markets do show bright green futures into the opening bell then the 1st 30 minutes will be critical. At the end of the day a new high on the markets would initiate cover orders and the sideways action that has been easily trad-able is over.

If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side.

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Is the tanking just a self fulfilling prophecy?

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Are you asking if it is inevitable? Most likely. Especially when the fact is even if the vote is to leave it's not like tomorrow morning the UK is out of the EU. It's a 2 year timetable and everything will be exactly the same tomorrow and in the short-term. So this emotional market and now futures movement is nothing more than an exercise in mental whippage.

Another leg down wow.

DAX futures -8.2% and FTSE -7.5%

British pound -8% damn

What I mean, is the only reason for the fall is all of the repeated statements saying as such before the vote, but like you said, nothing is different tomorrow morning. Profits, trade, sales, gdp, etc won't be effected for months to years (and it's not even evident the effect will be negative).

Futures down -557

Tomorrow could be epic, this is what happens when a crowded trade goes bad.

I bought 500 shares of SDOW today

I transferred my entire 401k to a stable value fund today around 10:00 am. Even though old army didn't say exactly when a pullback was going to happen, I figured it was a good time to do so with the upcoming vote. Besides, my account lost 0.59% over the last month and everyone's been saying it was inevitable. I'm not a trader, but I do try to take advantage of these situations.

Haven't had a chance to contribute to my Roth this year yet. Assuming it ends up BREXIT, should I dump in half of the limit tomorrow to get caught up YTD, wait a couple days, or should I put in about $1,500 tomorrow and catch up to half in the next couple weeks of it keeps falling?

Just curious what this would mean for the next couple of weeks, not just tomorrow's reaction.

We're at support on S&P Futures. 2020ish break will get ugly

Japan down 7.5%

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We're at support on S&P Futures. 2020ish break will get ugly

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Down 4% and you're calling for it to get ugly?