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Agree. I have exited almost all my long positions and am playing volatility.

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And volitilaty like the last 2 days makes day traders happy.

Will AAPL break the long term bottom trend line around 85? Looks like it will.

I certainly think so... the last time AAPL was in the low 90's, the whole market was in a swoon. Now, it's back down in that range and we're still near the top of this spring's leg up. Seems like it has plenty more room to fall.

Intraday volatility really picking up lately.

S&P right at 50 day and the bottom upward trend line from Feb 11. Also a H&S at the top of this rally with neckline at 2035.

Well, S&P500 closed at a lower low and under the 50MA. To my novice mind, those seem to confirm that we are now intently heading to challenge the 2040 support. For some of the more experienced folks on here, what do you expect in the coming weeks?

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Well, S&P500 closed at a lower low and under the 50MA. To my novice mind, those seem to confirm that we are now intently heading to challenge the 2040 support. For some of the more experienced folks on here, what do you expect in the coming weeks?

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Markets will continue to be volatile and unpredictable.

That is my prediction.

Half of that is true

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Half of that is true

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Only if you disregard all academic evidence on the subject.

I've got a long long list of +% trades that I'll rely upon.

Swiss National Bank, Warren Buffet, and Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisor all investing heavily in AAPL.

Another low volume ripper.

This volatility is kicking ass

Looks like we can test the bounce off of 2040 again

Pretty much everything lining up showing the next time we lose 2040 on the S&P it won't be bouncing back on this cycle meaning reversal confirmation. And most likely led by DOW breaking below 17500 and not bouncing back above that mark.

H&S setup on the S&P daily starting in late March with neckline right around 2040

The market has been down or horizontal for a longtime now. Most likely this will continue until the new President is elected. Hoping for some upward movement as this is getting tiresome.

This is just nuts intraday

Testing 2040 mark. We'll see what happens

Neckline at 2035-2040 breaks and I'm not covering until 1860

Saw something interesting. On a weekly chart, the 50 MA crossed the 100 MA. That has only happened two other times in last 20 years - March 2001, and June 2008.

It happened throughout the 80s and 90s before he market went hyperbolic, and rallied, however.

OA1, would you label today's closing numbers as "within the noise?"

S&P closed at 2040.04
DJI closed at 17435.40

Yesterdays close at 2040.04 just shows how important that identified number (by many on here) is and we bounced off of it again. While not the final verification point needing to trigger it certainly shows why it's a good one to watch.

Big move in the market off of 2040

Oldarmy, how about an update on your thoughts?

Heck, you are reading the market well so tell me where we are going.

This sideways action with lower highs each cycle (see most recent top Friday) is keeping the probable breakdown intact. Volume is anemic making confirmations more difficult. If we had traded a 250M+ day on any of the recent highs it would have most likely given readings across enough stocks to take us over the hump and a pure reversal call would been the result. Without volume the technical breakdown numbers of 2040 and 17435 are on watch.

Remember that sideways action can last months. Certainly been the case with recent trend reversals. For that reason those recognizing the sideways pattern have done well. Trading off the tops on the declining highs or buying the support anytime nearing 2040 S&P's have been swing trading nirvana. But as the tops compress lower the value risk trade becomes a concern.

Nothing has changed on my macro view on heading to new lows before seeing any new market highs.

Sold 85% or so of my NFLX holdings, called out at 103 Saturday. Sold some covered calls. This was the trade I wanted to happen a month ago but my April 22nd covered calls expired out of the money and i rode it down and back up.

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Sold 85% or so of my NFLX holdings, called out at 103 Saturday. Sold some covered calls. This was the trade I wanted to happen a month ago but my April 22nd covered calls expired out of the money and i rode it down and back up.

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Love the covered call strategy on the sideways action!

two plays working well for me, while we wait for a clear signal for a big down move

been selling puts in /ES far OTM (about 2 Standard Deviations out), balancing delta's with with VXX back ratio (2:1 --sold puts to calls down at support area)

leaning slightly heavier to the upside until bears can take and hold something

letting time decay do it's thing on sold puts in /ES (selling options you can win up down or sideways with time decay, have actually had the wind at my back with direction on my side for once )

VXX is volatility product so it works inverse to the market and covers me on any potential big down move


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other go to selling strangles in AMZN is working great, even with implied volatility being crappy and low (lower premiums for options sellers like myself) you can still collect north of $225/$250 up to $300 on each strangle as far as two standard deviations away from price on each side (about 95% Probability of closing out of the money

with this strategy I always manage a winner at 50%, though if one side gets tested and the other side comes in, I'll close the winner and roll it closer as long as there is still good premium to collect far enough away from the money for my comfort zone

I also aggressively manage losers that go against quickly, lose a battle on those outlier moves but save your P/L and win the war later (very rare these hit but I never lose anything sticking to this strategy more than time and return on capital---in fact usually the big moves jack up the vol and I can collect a ton of premium on the reset position, again all I ever lose sticking with it is a little time and ROC)

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Sold 85% or so of my NFLX holdings, called out at 103 Saturday. Sold some covered calls. This was the trade I wanted to happen a month ago but my April 22nd covered calls expired out of the money and i rode it down and back up.

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Love the covered call strategy on the sideways action!

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yessir, when you've got an inside day, and you are short premium it's a beautiful thing

as much as like trading action and opportunity I always know with my core positions, that even if I'm bored as hell it's cool b/c I'm making money that day . . .oldarmy is my buddy but THETA DECAY is my besty

WOW! Huge jobs miss! Only 38,000 jobs created vs 167,000 expected!

Year over year earnings of S&P down about 7%!

BCBS asking for a huge premium increase for Texas big premium increases projected around the nation for Obamacare for 2017.

Bill Gross came out yesterday saying very different investment environment than the last 40 years. Expect low single digit stock returns going forward and own cash.

And Mr Hedge Fund Drukenmiller plus many others saying outright own gold.

Abenomics failing in Japan. Abe can't raise sales taxes to service the debt, as promised, so he just announced he is piling on more debt (QE)!

QE alone with zero policy changes to aid capitalism like lower tax rates and less regulation is failing!

No way the Fed can raise rates with those jobs numbers and capitalism flat out doesn't work very well with zero interest rates and IMO can't work with negative interest rates.

I rely on oldarmy 1 and you guys for the technicals but the fundamentals look very bad to me.

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Bill Gross came out yesterday saying very different investment environment than the last 40 years. Expect low single digit stock returns going forward and own cash.

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What he said was that the past 40 years was a "grey or black swan" in terms of extraordinary returns.

Just because returns aren't likely to be extraordinary going-forward doesn't mean you should necessarily change your approach. Unless you use expensive active management or trading strategies, that is.

PFO, these aren't the posts I expect from you!

Oldarmy, you've been waiting for your last trigger and it sounds like it was verified?

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PFO, these aren't the posts I expect from you!

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Gator, I am a big believer in stocks for the long run and won't be selling. I might add to my modest gold miners position however and physical gold holdings.