I'm sure you've answered this before, but I've been out-of-thread a few years (yay life!)...but do you have any good resources/references for EW theory? I've seen you using it since your previous username, but I've never really understood it.

I usually just go off EMAs, Pivots, Fib levels, but I'm always looking for tools to keep in the pocket.

Maximus_Meridius said:

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I'm sure you've answered this before, but I've been out-of-thread a few years (yay life!)...but do you have any good resources/references for EW theory? I've seen you using it since your previous username, but I've never really understood it.

I usually just go off EMAs, Pivots, Fib levels, but I'm always looking for tools to keep in the pocket.

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I'd start with reading the Socioeconomic Theory of Finance. Then Elliott Wave Principle. The former is to help rewire your brain toward understand how waves of sentiment drive the market. The latter is more of an introduction and educational background on EW. As for direct application, Prechter (who wrote / contributed to both books) runs the largest EW community and has a phenomenal education section. But the real applications comes from learning the nuances. And you have to remember (this is something I failed out when I started), EWis not a prediction tool. It CAN be predictive. But it's best feature is helping identify where in the process an instrument is, where support and resistance might be, and the possible paths that could be next. There will be many times that something is completely ambiguous. Not everything will make sense all of the time. Waiting for clarity is the hardest part of the process, especially if something is moving strongly directionally.

Waveopedia - Elliott Wave International

Warning - using EW for active trading will not come easy. I don't care what twitter dorks and tradingview wave slappers say. The market these days is comprised of mostly overlapping 3-wave moves. So trying to slap a 5 wave impulse on something is likely going to lead to lots of struggle in trading. You have to take the time to truly learn how to apply. That requires understanding the nature of each type of wave and the relationship between waves. And again, it can often lead to unreliable outlooks. I've been doing this a long time. And it doesn't always lead to the best results. It's at its WORST when the market is extending at major high or major low points where EW tells you something should have topped or bottomed by now but it just hasn't. Hence why I have been trading much less this year. Nothing makes sense right now outside of very short-term moves.

Thanks for those recommended EW resources. I will check those out.

I noticed today that one of your other plays, CRML, is below $6 again. Are you still looking at that one or is it no longer viable?

maroonbleeder said:

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Thanks for those recommended EW resources. I will check those out.

I noticed today that one of your other plays, CRML, is below $6 again. Are you still looking at that one or is it no longer viable?

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I was considering jumping back in for a short-term attempt to play $6 --> $9, but it's getting far too deep for my liking. Still think it tries to jump above the August high, but that's not guaranteed. So hands off and waiting for clarity. Original thesis from the triangle completion is dead, and bearish further is absolutely possible.

maroonbleeder said:

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Thanks for those recommended EW resources. I will check those out.

I noticed today that one of your other plays, CRML, is below $6 again. Are you still looking at that one or is it no longer viable?

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Read them twice! I picked them up on HA's recommendation. Didn't understand much until the second trip through. Your results my vary! Haha

Walmart getting smacked pretty good today. On my watchlist now

probably not a good sign for the economy in general

Diggity said:

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probably not a good sign for the economy in general

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Not sure WMT is a good indicator anymore. Id only go to Walmart if my budget forced me to. I also wonder if all the benefit restrictions and fraud investigations have stopped the flow of some tax paid dollars to walmarts bottom line (WMT receives 25% of all SNAP/Benefits spend). AMZN has to continually be eating into their market as well.

ryanhnc10 said:

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Walmart getting smacked pretty good today. On my watchlist now

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While I'm not a fan of this stock, this is a good spot, technically speaking. But this ER is still fresh, so I'd give it a few days.

harge57 said:

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Diggity said:

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probably not a good sign for the economy in general

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Not sure WMT is a good indicator anymore. Id only go to Walmart if my budget forced me to. I also wonder if all the benefit restrictions and fraud investigations have stopped the flow of some tax paid dollars to walmarts bottom line. AMZN has to continually be eating into their market as well.

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I've always said that when Walmart going up slowly is a sign of a bull market. Walmart going up fast is a sign of rotation from high priced retail to discount retail. Walmart rolling over from going up fast can be a sign of retail breaking.

I wouldn't say it's broken enough support yet to be confirmed rolling over, but it's certainly weak here and something to absolutely consider.

They did pivot over the years into more of an online Amazon competitor. But their bread and butter is still being the cheap all-around retailer. Their main business is low margin and requires high volume in both butts through doors as well as those butts either buying more goods continually, or being willing to pay higher prices continually. If those trends start moving in the opposite direction, there's no where left to turn for consumers.

I would be very careful with WMT. It may get a dead cat bounce soon, but that chart looks very bearish to me on the daily with even the 200 day getting ready to roll over. There's no averages underneath this thing to catch it if it can't hold $100-101. Hell - even the 300 day is getting ready to rollover and is above the stock price.

The weekly doesn't look much better.

Even if it holds at $100, I only see a $10 bounce as the base case scenario. It's not worth playing with this fire for a 10% gain.

The Hedgeye guys were/are short WMT, with the previous low end of their range at $108. We'll see where they reprice after today's move

These super flat SOXL days makes me nervous. Which way is it breaking?

QQQ is on the verge of closing below the 50DMA. Careful on any longs in tech until it's reclaimed.

FJ43 said:

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About time for VIX calls gents

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If anybody ever dares doubt the fj...

Bitcoin still climbing after-hours.

Gaeilge said:

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Bitcoin still climbing after-hours.

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Glad I bought more today. Still think it may retrace a little but it's possible it wont. In a perfect world it would consolidate here for a couple days before it shoots up much further.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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FJ43 said:

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About time for VIX calls gents

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If anybody ever dares doubt the fj...

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September $30 VXX calls are 16c and October 30 calls are less than 50c. Don't have to buy much at all to payoff bigly. Cheap insurance.

FJ43 said:

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aggies4life said:

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FJ43 said:

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I've set an alert on PATH above 10.20 but will have heavy resistance about 11 bucks.

Possible double bottom.

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Great call on this. Got in at $10.20 - still holding….what do you see going forward?

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Congrats brother. Glad you have had a solid return.

What I see with a quick look is it's beginning a golden cross. That's a good sign.

It really needs to consolidate a bit then have a solid close above today's high and hold above 16.67(ish). It's a resistance level that goes back a ways. It's at the point to begin forming a cup and handle. It needs to do that to have continuation.

Earnings are coming up so never a bad time to sell some degree of covered calls depending on what you're holding.

Great trade and glad you executed on the trigger level.

Taking profits along the way is never a bad thing.

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@aggies4life


Following back up here. This is forming (handle) like you wanted. Hope you sold some covered calls to soak up premium and lower cost basis.

For now looks good.

Citadel took off a lot of its exposure from its acquisition.

CITADEL HAS SHED OVER 80% OF AGGREGATE RISK FROM SITUATIONAL AWARENESS PORTFOLIO - CNBC CITING LETTER

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 21, 2026

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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FJ43 said:

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About time for VIX calls gents

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If anybody ever dares doubt the fj...

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September $30 VXX calls are 16c and October 30 calls are less than 50c. Don't have to buy much at all to payoff bigly. Cheap insurance.

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What's the needed move in the market for VXX to have a 50%+ increase? (currently at 19).

El Chupacabra said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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FJ43 said:

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About time for VIX calls gents

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If anybody ever dares doubt the fj...

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September $30 VXX calls are 16c and October 30 calls are less than 50c. Don't have to buy much at all to payoff bigly. Cheap insurance.

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What's the needed move in the market for VXX to have a 50%+ increase? (currently at 19).

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It's not about that. It's about finding the cheapest hedge possible. SPY and QQ puts are expensive. VIX calls are expensive. VXX amplifies VIX moves and the calls are dirt cheap.

^
!
!

What he said. I usually use VIXY short-term options for a cheap hedge, but it's the same concept. I'm going overseas for a bit, and this is cheap insurance for when I'm not watching the market as closely as I usually do.

Crypto, metals, and software blasting my portfolio through this market chop is so satisfying.

Minerals too