I bleed maroon said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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I bleed maroon said:

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Dabbling in a "buffer ETF" for the first time. Bought a hundred shares just to watch how it behaves. This is NOT a recommendation to buy.

PNOV: S&P fund that protects up to the first 15% downside, in return for a capped max return of 13-14%. Tracking period is through next November. No dividends, and no options available. As I understand it, in Nov 2026, you can leave it in the fund and "renew" for another year period. You can trade it any time in the interim for what the market says it's worth. Expense ratio is high-ish at 0.79%, and its' track record is mostly in a bullish market environment.

Looking at it as a cash alternative, retaining exposure to the market. May be a good alternative for those nearing retirement or already retired. Open to any and all critiques ...

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It's pretty much an inverse SPY instrument. But one that caps your potential. So in periods of bull, your money goes down while the market goes up. And during bears, your money goes up while the market goes down, yet returns less than a standard inverse ETF would.

So not only do you need to generally time it right, but you need to be ok knowing you left tons on the table had you used the same timing with an inverse ETF.

With the ability to use stops on inverse ETF's, I cant see the use case for this outside of someone who doesnt check the market often and wants something they can set and forget and hope it works out for them

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Thanks! Yep - I see it much the same way. It's not for me, BUT, for someone with a large amount of cash in their IRA who wants market exposure with reduced risk, it's pretty accessible. It's a packaged solution, but if they don't check their account much more than quarterly, it may still be better (and I disagree that it leaves "tons" on the table - mainly higher ETF expenses and capped returns in return for the "set and forget" capability). I have relatives in this situation - I ain't gonna manage their money on a daily basis).

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Only problem is, if you don't time it right, the jump in value could do nothing more than return what lost from decay.

POWL earning estimates and thought on guidance ?

Japan - Softbank down 33% in a month.

There's just no liquidity in this market. Today is what happens when retail is acting alone without the liquidity machine. Likely trapped buyers. We will see.

I've looked at some buffer ETFs and like the strategy. I work in oil and gas, collars and three way collars are a very common way to hedge commodity prices. If you have a good amount of capital, you can just "buffer" SPY yourself since it's just a collar structure. Sell call, buy put with call proceeds.

I did research buffer ETFs/collar structures and the consensus was to adjust your stock/bond allocation, essentially keep more in cash/short term treasuries. Unfortunately, I cant find the exact publication but will post it if I do.

I still choose to collar some of my positions vs selling outright or selling covered calls. I keep the spread pretty wide and protect against a wipeout with some of my high flyers. Would have paid out big if I executed the HOOD and SMR collars I was looking at a month or so ago haha

POWL hitting early

$339x$345

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Only problem is, if you don't time it right, the jump in value could do nothing more than return what lost from decay.

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Nah - you're using the wrong benchmark. Their alternatives are generally viewed to be all-in on an S&P Index fund or stay with a 3.5% guaranteed money market return. It's a risk-adjusted, bear-avoiding method that many non-active-traders may be seeking. They'd rather take a 0% than a 15% decline, in return for peace of mind. The other similar buffer funds I've seen provide total downside protection, with a 7-8% cap. I think this one might be better than that comparison - thoughts?

Hint: It's not for you and me. I bought it to give it a "real-world" test, mainly to study the mechanics. I'm a skeptic, too.

Chef Elko said:

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POWL hitting early

$339x$345

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https://powellindustriesinc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/powell-industries-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-0

Quote:

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Fourth Quarter Key Highlights:

Revenues of $298 million increased 8%;
Gross profit of $94 million, or 31.4% of revenue, increased 16%;
Net income of $51 million, or $4.22 per diluted share, increased 12%;
New orders(1) totaled $271 million, an increase of 1%;
Backlog(2) as of September 30, 2025 totaled $1.4 billion, an increase of 3%;
Cash and short-term investments as of September 30, 2025 totaled $476 million.
Completed the acquisition of Remsdaq Ltd., a U.K.-based manufacturer of SCADA Remote Terminal Units for electrical substation control and automation in generation, transmission and distribution.
Full Year Key Highlights:

Revenues totaled $1.1 billion, an increase of 9%;
Gross profit of $324 million, or 29.4% of revenue, increased 19%;
Net income of $181 million, or $14.86 per diluted share, increased 21%;
New orders totaled $1.2 billion, an increase of 9%.

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Products like these are promised to the exact people you talk about because they know that they..

A. Won't get in at the right time. Either very early or very late
B. Wont exit at the right time. Either very early or very late

And thus, wont make much of any return (likely even a negative return), while the fund eats their fees.

Cash is a position. And likely a better one for the passive investor.

But fair enough. Interested to see the results when you have them.

Cash is a position. And likely a better one for the passive investor.

$SPX after CNN Fear & Greed falls to 9:

S&P is up 79% of the time, 1 month later pic.twitter.com/2pKIcR3TDx

— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) November 18, 2025

Interesting data. Thanks for sharing

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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$SPX after CNN Fear & Greed falls to 9:

S&P is up 79% of the time, 1 month later pic.twitter.com/2pKIcR3TDx

— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) November 18, 2025

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how the hell are we at a 9 fear & greed just 4% off all time highs?!?!

Everyone and their grandma saying it's a bubble and it's about to pop?

Yes, was listening to CNBC earlier and they said they think the bottom is basically in. Wasn't saying that things will definitely turn around like tomorrow, but it's closer to things going back up

Fwiw

NVDA reports ER tomorrow AH. If they give the slightest hint of caution then the selloff is just beginning, if they don't then the bottom might be in for this pullback.

ProgN said:

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NVDA reports ER tomorrow AH. If they give the slightest hint of caution then the selloff is just beginning, if they don't then the bottom might be in for this pullback.

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Option flow was pretty positive today for NVDA earnings tomorrow. Hoping some people know something and we rip after Jensen drops some crazy numbers and strong guidance on us.

Is it know or hope? That's the question. I have zero respect for firms coming out this week pounding "AI bubble" before NVDA's ER, why? The next macro move hinges on tomorrow's ER, imo.

Like everyone says, all about NVDA.

QQQ 555, SPY 630 are areas of interest.

I'm predicting negative SPX in 2026 and some great moves in biotech and energy.

Good luck to all.

EnronAg said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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$SPX after CNN Fear & Greed falls to 9:

S&P is up 79% of the time, 1 month later pic.twitter.com/2pKIcR3TDx

— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) November 18, 2025

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how the hell are we at a 9 fear & greed just 4% off all time highs?!?!

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There's a guy on another forum I'm on that religiously posts F&G daily. Back in August, he posted that it was touching 50 again for the second time. By the end of that day, it had been "adjusted" higher. Keep in mind this was for the prior month.





Here's what it claims to measure according to Grok, correct me if Im wrong..



1. Stock Price Momentum - Not fear, as the S&P is above the 125 day MA, though 125 is not far below currently

2. Stock Price Strength - I dont know if I trust CNN to be pulling from the right place on this one, as there are indicators that are far better at measuring this than the simple ones. But this one is likely bearish, and mostly has been for years as a handful of stocks have driven then entire market.

3. Stock Price Breadth - Same as above

4. Put/Call Ratio - This can change on a whim, and drastically.

5. Market volatility - 50D MA on VIX is as useless as your grandmas tits. VIX already measures 1 month out options on SPX. This double dips with #4.

6. Safe Haven Demand - Treasuries have done NOTHING for over 2 years. And the perceived safety is a myth. Were they safe in 2022? Declined the entire time SPX did.

7. Junk bond demand - LOL. 100x more usless than #6.

This is a junk indicator.

Here's 2022 with F&G on bottom. Looks like extreme fear is when you should be selling, unless its already dragged the bottom for a couple weeks.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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EnronAg said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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$SPX after CNN Fear & Greed falls to 9:

S&P is up 79% of the time, 1 month later pic.twitter.com/2pKIcR3TDx

— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) November 18, 2025

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how the hell are we at a 9 fear & greed just 4% off all time highs?!?!

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There's a guy on another forum I'm on that religiously posts F&G daily. Back in August, he posted that it was touching 50 again for the second time. By the end of that day, it had been "adjusted" higher. Keep in mind this was for the prior month.





Here's what it claims to measure according to Grok, correct me if Im wrong..



1. Stock Price Momentum - Not fear, as the S&P is above the 125 day MA, though 125 is not far below currently

2. Stock Price Strength - I dont know if I trust CNN to be pulling from the right place on this one, as there are indicators that are far better at measuring this than the simple ones. But this one is likely bearish, and mostly has been for years as a handful of stocks have driven then entire market.

3. Stock Price Breadth - Same as above

4. Put/Call Ratio - This can change on a whim, and drastically.

5. Market volatility - 50D MA on VIX is as useless as your grandmas tits. VIX already measures 1 month out options on SPX. This double dips with #4.

6. Safe Haven Demand - Treasuries have done NOTHING for over 2 years. And the perceived safety is a myth. Were they safe in 2022? Declined the entire time SPX did.

7. Junk bond demand - LOL. 100x more usless than #6.

This is a junk indicator.

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This isn't like when you take a bunch of bad tasting ingredients, mix them up, throw them in the oven and next thing you have a nice chocolate cake?

It's about there being so much data and different variables out there that anyone can have it say whatever angle they want it to say.

It's all to get eyeballs, not to actually inform.

If a news outlet really knows "the bottom is likely in", why aren't they making a killing buying instead of just commenting on a TV show or a blog? They have no idea which way the market is going to go, but they need to push *some idea* to fill airspace and garner clicks.

Proposition Joe said:

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It's about there being so much data and different variables out there that anyone can have it say whatever angle they want it to say.

It's all to get eyeballs, not to actually inform.

If a news outlet really knows "the bottom is likely in", why aren't they making a killing buying instead of just commenting on a TV show or a blog? They have no idea which way the market is going to go, but they need to push *some idea* to fill airspace and garner clicks.

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No doubt.

Truly believe that anything that hits the media with regards to stocks is put there by someone wanting to manipulate the markets. Everything is to manipulate.

Proposition Joe said:

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It's about there being so much data and different variables out there that anyone can have it say whatever angle they want it to say.

It's all to get eyeballs, not to actually inform.

If a news outlet really knows "the bottom is likely in", why aren't they making a killing buying instead of just commenting on a TV show or a blog? They have no idea which way the market is going to go, but they need to push *some idea* to fill airspace and garner clicks.

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I hate commercials. So I switch to CNBC when College 84 goes commercials as its the only business channel that isn't ALWAYS pushing an agenda (Bloomberg), but actually talks about the market (Fox).

Yesterday morning CNBC was interviewing some gal who was providing technical analysis. She was just relaying what she sees and a lot of it was short-term bearish. The host was befuddled and only followed up on the slightest whim of hope she gave. These people don't want to help you determine the direction of the market. They want to latch on to only what will lead them to believe something bullish. It's no wonder people are unprepared for market corrections.

And then you have some sites/outlets that do the exact opposite. I used to routinely use marketwatch.com just to check the market, and every day there was some major bearish headline about how we're all doomed. As an uninformed investor reading that daily, I would have been in cash the last 10 years.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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It's about there being so much data and different variables out there that anyone can have it say whatever angle they want it to say.

It's all to get eyeballs, not to actually inform.

If a news outlet really knows "the bottom is likely in", why aren't they making a killing buying instead of just commenting on a TV show or a blog? They have no idea which way the market is going to go, but they need to push *some idea* to fill airspace and garner clicks.

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I hate commercials. So I switch to CNBC when College 84 goes commercials as its the only business channel that isn't ALWAYS pushing an agenda (Bloomberg), but actually talks about the market (Fox).

Yesterday morning CNBC was interviewing some gal who was providing technical analysis. She was just relaying what she sees and a lot of it was short-term bearish. The host was befuddled and only followed up on the slightest whim of hope she gave. These people don't want to help you determine the direction of the market. They want to latch on to only what will lead them to believe something bullish. It's no wonder people are unprepared for market corrections.

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CNBC is definitely a cheerleader

Although Cramer has soured on the AI trade the past couple of weeks and he was one of the biggest pumpers the past few years.

Good lord, Google

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Good lord, Google

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CLS, VRT, CEG, APP, GEV, AVGO….as well

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Sure seems like it wants to go up.

Ripping into NVDA print this afternoon. Let's see if they beat and guide up and set the local bottom

Just bought back my powl CCs and doubled my position, Vst and crwd bumping up against resistance. Not sure how I feel about those. NVDA fireworks could send both flying, otoh selling ccs always pays

Ag CPA said:

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Although Cramer has soured on the AI trade the past couple of weeks and he was one of the biggest pumpers the past few years.

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100%. I heard him go in depth yesterday about the suspect financing behind openAI & oracle