tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

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Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

Proposition Joe said:

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Ragoo said:

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aggieforester05 said:

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Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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NoahAg said:

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AggieFrog said:

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FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

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Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

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If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

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Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

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But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

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there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

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The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

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you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

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They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

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be honest, when was the last time you considered price when going to CFA? You went to CFA because you wanted their food, or someone else in your family wanted their food.

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Didn't you just say people went to CFA because of the hospitality and experience?

Fast food is fast food. Even if you want to carve out CFA and a handful of other "experience" fast food restaurants (boy don't we all love the guy at Freebirds asking you about your day but forgetting what kind of beans you want four times) -- where are the other 2.5 million workers going?

We are there when it comes to order taking. Kiosks and AI are a superior experience to the drive-thru speaker.

We're probably one iteration away from companies like Miso Robotics or the like being able to turnkey implement making McDonalds or Taco Bell's relatively simple menu.

Then bam, 2 million workers expendable. What new jobs are they entering?

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no, I didn't say people go to CFA because of the hospitality. I said CFA as a company underwrites their entire business model on extreme hospitality. They already employ more people in a store than is actually necessary. They do so because the customer experience is very important. They are not competing with most fast food on price. So they don't need to optimize to meet their bottom line.

Just because robots will exist doesn't mean they will automatically be deployed to replace the lowest of wage worker. Especially in an end to end setting.

Their utility will best be served where the input is a pick and the output is a scan ie; warehousing.

I think you're conflating AI and automation. Automation is clearly long term valuable. It adds to productivity and over time, can support higher wages and more innovative job creation, as the outdated and traditional roles shrink.

There was already a significant skills mismatch across the country due to decreases in quality education and training in technical skills, specifically in VoTech. "AI" is just the new boogieman

My current job did not exist before AI. That's one new job.

Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

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Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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you are being overly dramatic

tysker said:

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I think you're conflating AI and automation. Automation is clearly long term valuable. It adds to productivity and over time, can support higher wages and more innovative job creation, as the outdated and traditional roles shrink.

There was already a significant skills mismatch across the country due to decreases in quality education and training in technical skills, specifically in VoTech. "AI" is just the new boogieman

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The topic skewed towards "I don't think a robot is going to install the HVAC unit", so my comparisons shifted in that direction to. The comparison is ultimately the same though - we're about to find that millions of workers are replaceable on the cheap and that is going to have a major impact on every industry -- not just tech-centric ones.

Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

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Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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you are being overly dramatic

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I literally stated "this isn't me sounding the alarm".

But overly dramatic? Nvidia has a market approaching $5 trillion. It's one of the fastest growing stocks of all time.

If that doesn't strike you as dramatic in terms of business and finance, I'm not sure what would qualify.

Trump says fentanyl tariff on China going away. Another boom

tysker said:

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I think you're conflating AI and automation. Automation is clearly long term valuable. It adds to productivity and over time, can support higher wages and more innovative job creation, as the outdated and traditional roles shrink.

There was already a significant skills mismatch across the country due to decreases in quality education and training in technical skills, specifically in VoTech. "AI" is just the new boogieman

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Isn't AI just automation on steroids? If so, AI is the boogeyman on steroids.

AI is not just automation on steroids. Automation can do repeatable tasks more efficiently than humans. AI can do that and also help you figure out more efficient ways to automate the task, or how to automate tasks you previously thought required humans.

The good news is that technology is deflationary. It drives the cost of goods sold towards the marginal cost of production. Whoever adapts fastest captures the margin.

Nvda 206.

El Chupacabra said:

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Nvda 206.

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That's nice. Makes me feel better about selling CLS 200% ago.

Any of you familiar with NBIS nebius group? Robotaxi tsla/Uber competitor rumored to be a MSFT takeover target?

Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

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Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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I can tell you this country desperately needs electricians, pipe fitters. Welders, and general laborers by the boat load if we're going to meet the Data Center and subsequent Power Generation and therefore Nat Gas demand that is being forecasted.

If all of that is in demand then PMs and Engineers are needed as well. There is plenty of work to be had.

Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

---

Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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i would argue the emergence of the internet created as significant a shift, and society managed to adapt.

sts7049 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

---

Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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i would argue the emergence of the internet created as significant a shift, and society managed to adapt.

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I agree. I just don't assume since we did it once or twice that it's a guarantee we can do it again. The main displacements of the internet were print media, which then created new SEO and digital marketing jobs. Next was retail, which created new warehouse/picking/shipping jobs.

The internet was an expansion of industries, where AI/automation is collapsing them.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Any of you familiar with NBIS nebius group? Robotaxi tsla/Uber competitor rumored to be a MSFT takeover target?

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They are in the cloud / data center space - not really a competitor of the companies you named. And they just made a huge deal with microsoft a month or two back so I doubt they'll be taken over.

FI getting destroyed. -35%

Thanks

Was Yandex (YNDX). After Russian sanctions they were able to "leave" Russia and reincorporate in Amsterdam.

NVDA now has larger market cap than AMD ARM AVGO INTC LRCX MU QCOM and TSM combined.

Proposition Joe said:

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sts7049 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

---

Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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i would argue the emergence of the internet created as significant a shift, and society managed to adapt.

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I agree. I just don't assume since we did it once or twice that it's a guarantee we can do it again. The main displacements of the internet were print media, which then created new SEO and digital marketing jobs. Next was retail, which created new warehouse/picking/shipping jobs.

The internet was an expansion of industries, where AI/automation is collapsing them.

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Employment at traditional wall street firm's has already collapsed due to Ai/Automation. Many of the displaced workers are from the older generation and have been peeling out since the fallout from 2008. And yet, many of the remaining workers who have been 'displaced' now work at smaller firm's (often with easier work/life balance and more remote work options), started their own firm, or even consult. The barriers to entry has never been lower..

David Carr said:

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NVDA now has larger market cap than AMD ARM AVGO INTC LRCX MU QCOM and TSM combined.

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NVDA's weight within the S&P 500 is about 7.3%. It is heavy influence on the direction of the market on any given day. And clearly important as funds are trying to meet/exceed S&P benchmarks by year end.


edit to add: any PM without exposure to some combination of NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, TSLA,etc will be playing cathcup going into year end (unless they were long metals and AI earlier in the year)

Unreal… pic.twitter.com/f64bILMULX

— Michael Green (@profplum99) October 28, 2025

David Carr said:

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NVDA now has larger market cap than AMD ARM AVGO INTC LRCX MU QCOM and TSM combined.

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Currently 8.6% weight in sp500

POWL closing in on $400.

cgh1999 said:

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POWL closing in on $400.

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BE Whoop!

VIX kinda spiking...yet market still ripping

this market refuses to ever have any bull traps...

PLTR knocking on $200.

David Carr said:

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Currently 8.6% weight in sp500

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Crazy. If I have time I may dig around for historical concentration similarities. Someone here may already have done the research

Infinite money loops to the moon

Furlock Bones said:

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Infinite money loops to the moon

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You pledge to give me a loan of a million, I'll pledge to loan you $2 million, then you give me $3 million, etc...

Then we can borrow off of all of our loan assets! Genius! We will save this economy singlehandedly.

Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

---

Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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The moon- the only place we have left to build.

Scientific said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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tysker said:

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The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.

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Ignoring that you should be worried what 3 million people who will soon be unemployed are going to do (revolt? welfare? steal? None of it's good for society as a whole)... you think fast food is the only industry this is going to happen with?

My question still stands -- if the common assumption is "new industries will be created", I ask again -- where? Are we just banking on some new industry that needs massive physical labor/presence to come along in the next few years because "its always sorted itself out historically"?

This isn't me sounding the alarm, this is me just pointing out that we're about see a shift that we've never seen before. They will be interesting times.

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The moon- the only place we have left to build.

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We? Sit this one out unemployed inferior meat sack!