same.

Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 28, 2025

Quote:

---

Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600 employees
10. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
11. Paramount: 2,000 employees
12. Target: 1,800 employees
13. Kroger: 1,000 employees
14. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
15. Meta: 600 employees

The labor market is clearly weakening.

---

AI Death Knell engaged!

There's not even 200K layoffs on that list.

From October '22 - January '23 there were 6.5 million

flashplayer said:

---

There's not even 200K layoffs on that list.

From October '22 - January '23 there were 6.5 million

---

AI is still in its very early infancy for these companies. This will only grow to replace warm bodies in chairs.

Gaeilge said:

---

Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 28, 2025

Quote:

---

Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600 employees
10. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
11. Paramount: 2,000 employees
12. Target: 1,800 employees
13. Kroger: 1,000 employees
14. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
15. Meta: 600 employees

The labor market is clearly weakening.

---

AI Death Knell engaged!

---

Learn to code. Well, not that anymore.

Learn to weld and cut hair I guess.

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

Gaeilge said:

---

flashplayer said:

---

There's not even 200K layoffs on that list.

From October '22 - January '23 there were 6.5 million

---

AI is still in its very early infancy for these companies. This will only grow to replace warm bodies in chairs.

---

flashplayer said:

---

There's not even 200K layoffs on that list.

From October '22 - January '23 there were 6.5 million

---

I was one of them!

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

CLS at $325+

FishrCoAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

---

Agree - it's part of why I'm skeptical. I'm also highly skeptical that we'll see AGI in the foreseeable future.

But if we did and you assumed some sort of exponential growth in AGI/robotics, then that could come much sooner than we think.

Agree. I can see it in the way off, distant future but not anytime soon. It is replacing people that had to be somewhat smart/trained with various forms of data. Programming, data analysts, sales, accounting, medicine, law, etc... These will all be affected.

Nothing gonna be left but some blue-collar jobs and less desirable jobs that require human interaction.

I just had three AC units replaced. Very tight spaces in an unusual setup. No way a computer/robot does that now. The salesperson, on the other hand....

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

Gaeilge said:

---

Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 28, 2025

Quote:

---

Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600 employees
10. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
11. Paramount: 2,000 employees
12. Target: 1,800 employees
13. Kroger: 1,000 employees
14. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
15. Meta: 600 employees

The labor market is clearly weakening.

---

AI Death Knell engaged!

---

That would be better shown as a % of those companies. No doubt, it's a lot of people but what % of Amazon is 30K? And they are likely still hiring.

FishrCoAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

---

Not AI specifically, but a disruptive technology. 15 years ago, a car mechanic would have seemed like a great field. Lots of wires and connections. None of that with EVs

A disruptive tech in HVAC is coming. We paid ~$10K to get one of our ACs replaced. There's a lot of money to be made. Disruptive tech in plumbing is less likely.

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

It is roughly 10% of their corporate staff.

We also still have a massive number of boomers retiring soon so I actually think that cushions the impact somewhat. Not entirely, but in a meaningful way.

FishrCoAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

---

AI will be integrated in the robots that Musk is building

thus you have the Android muscle to go along with AI knowledge of the tasks.

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

That makes sense. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. I know firsthand that the trades currently need qualified people. A lot. I don't see a sudden migration of programmers to say, HVAC. I think it would be more gradual. HVAC is hot, dirty, tough work. Not saying that some won't make the move. But many desk jockeys just aren't cut out for hard manual labor.

AI isn't end to end like a human. Doubt it ever will be. It will do the stuff in the middle well.

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

NoahAg said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

That makes sense. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. I know firsthand that the trades currently need qualified people. A lot. I don't see a sudden migration of programmers to say, HVAC. I think it would be more gradual. HVAC is hot, dirty, tough work. Not saying that some won't make the move. But many desk jockeys just aren't cut out for hard manual labor.

---

No doubt it won't be quick -- all of this tends to move a lot slower than people think.

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

Yep. Buggy whip manufacturers started making seat cushions and steering wheels.

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

Proposition Joe said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

---

you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

---

you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

---

They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

can we talk about how eventual UBI could just be a free bonus/beer money for early FIREes?

aggieforester05 said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

---

you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

---

They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

---

be honest, when was the last time you considered price when going to CFA? You went to CFA because you wanted their food, or someone else in your family wanted their food.

Ragoo said:

---

aggieforester05 said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

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The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

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you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

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They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

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be honest, when was the last time you considered price when going to CFA? You went to CFA because you wanted their food, or someone else in your family wanted their food.

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You're right, but I'm fat and make bad decisions. Not everyone is the same. If Taco Bell automates and CFA doesn't the valley between their prices will grow even further. It will have real consequences on their bottom end. It's basic supply and demand. Taco Bell is surprisingly expensive these days, btw.

What if GM hand built all of their trucks and Ford automates and undercuts GM's prices by 20%. How many of the GM faithful will go out a buy a GM poverty pony when they can get a Lariat Ford for the same price?

Ragoo said:

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aggieforester05 said:

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Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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NoahAg said:

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AggieFrog said:

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FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

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Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

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If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

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Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

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But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

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there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

---

you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

---

They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

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be honest, when was the last time you considered price when going to CFA? You went to CFA because you wanted their food, or someone else in your family wanted their food.

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Didn't you just say people went to CFA because of the hospitality and experience?

Fast food is fast food. Even if you want to carve out CFA and a handful of other "experience" fast food restaurants (boy don't we all love the guy at Freebirds asking you about your day but forgetting what kind of beans you want four times) -- where are the other 2.5 million workers going?

We are there when it comes to order taking. Kiosks and AI are a superior experience to the drive-thru speaker.

We're probably one iteration away from companies like Miso Robotics or the like being able to turnkey implement making McDonalds or Taco Bell's relatively simple menu.

Then bam, 2 million workers expendable. What new jobs are they entering?

Sort of like the workers at record pressing companies learning to run machines to press CD's because vinyl is dead....

The current labor pool (employed + unemployed and looking) is about 170.8 million people. The labor participation rate is about 62.5%. Sorry if I'm not overly concerns with the 2 million fast food workers (FTEs? I remember when many of those jobs were filled by part-time labor and high schoolers) that may be automated away over the next 10 years.