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Ranger222
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AG
I got in SGMO @ 4.3. Trying to decide if I want to part with half of my shares to lock in profits or just hold the entire bag for the ride.
3rd and 2
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Take the money!
oldarmy1
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Maroon Stormtrooper said:

Take the money!
Trophy to Maroon Stormtrooper. Futures off over 100 this evening. Another bump against the top channel resistance fails.
wessimo
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We've had a nice Trump rally to start the year. Is today the beginning of a Trump Dump? Or just a blip?
brownbrick
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See the chart of the last page for the current resistance lines high and low.
aggie_fan13
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wessimo said:

We've had a nice Trump rally to start the year. Is today the beginning of a Trump Dump? Or just a blip?
depends on how bad this current scandal is, everytime the administration has something like this I figure the markets will take a hit
Bonfire1996
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Sold my Homebuilding stocks. I am in homebuilding supply and the builders have a typical "catch your breath" moment in the late Spring after getting the year kicked off with big growth. They got this year kicked off with big growth, but margins shrank due to higher material and labor costs. Well, the "catch your breath" moment is a little bigger than I expected. They are still growing year over year, but not at levels the markets expect.

I took the opportunity to sell PHM (Pulte), DHI (DR Horton), and CAA (Cal Atlantic) at some nice year to date gains. I think they will stagnate for the next six months, or even pull back a little bit as this lower than expected growth will be panned pretty well on the Street.

I took my proceeds and bought MELI, the Latin American Amazon, which is experiencing explosive revenue growth, but is remarkably profitable compared to Amazon in its infancy and rapid growth stages. I can't imagine what Amazon would be trading at today if they were profitable in their infancy like MELI is currently. I am excited about the next 12 months of this stock.
Ranger222
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Yeah if I wanted to capture that sector I think I would stick and hold stocks like Home Depot and even SherwinWilliams that have been showing constant and steady growth.

I love $MELI. I think its a good time to get in.
Gator2_01
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Gator2_01 said:

Sold some strangles this morning.

X 21/25 in June for 2.00
JNPR 28/30 in June for 0.98

Also sold a CMG Iron Condor 445/455/525/535 in June for 3.30

Looking for 50% profit in each.
All of these trades have now closed.

CMG closed at the profit target on 5/19
JNPR closed at the profit target today

X was adjusted to a 21/22 strangle on 5/9 for another 0.60 credit and then closed out on 5/12 for a minimal profit.

Capital was redeployed in X and moved to other trades for CMG and JNPR.
Bonfire1996
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Quote:

Sold my Homebuilding stocks. I am in homebuilding supply and the builders have a typical "catch your breath" moment in the late Spring after getting the year kicked off with big growth. They got this year kicked off with big growth, but margins shrank due to higher material and labor costs. Well, the "catch your breath" moment is a little bigger than I expected. They are still growing year over year, but not at levels the markets expect.

I took the opportunity to sell PHM (Pulte), DHI (DR Horton), and CAA (Cal Atlantic) at some nice year to date gains. I think they will stagnate for the next six months, or even pull back a little bit as this lower than expected growth will be panned pretty well on the Street.

I took my proceeds and bought MELI, the Latin American Amazon, which is experiencing explosive revenue growth, but is remarkably profitable compared to Amazon in its infancy and rapid growth stages. I can't imagine what Amazon would be trading at today if they were profitable in their infancy like MELI is currently. I am excited about the next 12 months of this stock.
Glad I made this trade. Homebuilders got hurt today by a new home sale report that showed a slowdown as I predicted. And MELI is up 4% since I bought the stock. There will be a point to get back into homebuilding, and I will let this board know when that is. Right now, I am tech heavy with Amazon, MELI, Apple, and Facebook as primary holdings. I don't think the market has digested exactly what Apple is doing in India, a market it has failed to break into. AMZN got a value jump based upon its penetration into India over the past 12 months and its long term growth there looks extremely promising. AAPL just started manufacturing an affordable iPhone in India which will keep costs low as India is a bad trade partner for imports, and whatever market share they eat up will be a huge, unexpected event for AAPL financially. Couple with a new generation of iPhone, and AAPL looks significantly undervalued to me.
Comanche_Ag
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oldarmy1 said:

Pretty easy support and resistance levels on the macro markets. That's 600+ points of movement between the support/resistance line to consider entering and selling trades, options, etc.



We are closing in on that resistance line today. My thinking is we should have a pull back, but I'm just not sure if I have the gumption to put my money on that.
oldarmy1
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Yup....Traders took profits last 2 days and aggressive ones even reversed those sells into short trades. No doubt that the resistance is right around these days. However, that "v" bottom forming a rising triangle is almost as bullish as it gets....almost because there was no increased volume. Now if that volume comes in then breaking through the resistance would give the markets another jolt.

Remember that if you are shorting the markets at these resistance points then you have an easy exit decision baked in; that being the resistance gets broken. We've had two easy trades encompassing over 400 points each direction (support/resistance). Big money knows these charts are becoming easy to spot so keep a close eye if you trade these levels, because they love to bait you in and nail you.

oldarmy1
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Ok Parrish. When I said caution on the falling knife SN it certainly kept dropping. As mentioned before, it's a good idea to look at a chart of month over month versus daily to spot potential trend reversals. SN monthly just beginning after last months continued drop so this is where you enter and have stops at the close 52 week low. Low risk trade on the nice rising monthly volume.

Joseph Parrish
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oldarmy1 said:

Ok Parrish. When I said caution on the falling knife SN it certainly kept dropping. As mentioned before, it's a good idea to look at a chart of month over month versus daily to spot potential trend reversals. SN monthly just beginning after last months continued drop so this is where you enter and have stops at the close 52 week low. Low risk trade on the nice rising monthly volume.




Yeah, I got faked out by those $8 range reversals. I've already moved money over to jump on it again. I def plan to take advantage of this low spot.
oldarmy1
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If futures hold overnight we are breaking out to new highs in a trend move.
oldarmy1
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Non-farm payroll disappoints, so a mixed bag of economic news. Futures pulled back giving bears some energy to try to get resistance to hold and get another reversal sell going.

This is where it gets fun watching to see if shorts get squeezed or bulls flee, to give high risk shorters a pay day.
brownbrick
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**Warning, Not a Trader Post**

I noticed the VIX was near it lows since like 1990, curious if any of you guys use the VIX in any of your analysis.
oldarmy1
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Anyone up for a Trump vindication rally tomorrow afternoon?
Joseph Parrish
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oldarmy1 said:

Anyone up for a Trump vindication rally tomorrow afternoon?


Been waiting for one of those!
SlackerAg
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The left media generates fear for profitable pullbacks
SpreadsheetAg
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SpreadsheetAg
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oldarmy1
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Joe - SN major support fight going on for SN. Note the smaller head and shoulders drawn that broke, which is when I had said avoid catching a falling knife. Now we have the larger H&S formed with the major support all the back to March last year just under $6. If that gets broken to the downside then a move to $4 could easily be seen. So far it has held and note the increased volume activity on the daily bar. Unfortunately the longer the battle continues the percentages flip to the bears side for a breakdown. Need to see a significant move on volume upward.

The way I've been trading it is buying under $6 and selling above $6.75. That has given several excellent profit days including a one day move Tuesday that triggered my sells set at $6.75 as well as filled $7 covered calls out to June 16th. I cleared most of those covered calls at close yesterday because we hit close to $6. Excellent percentage gainers as long as this major support holds. If it fails then I close out everything and move on.

Joseph Parrish
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oldarmy1 said:

Joe - SN major support fight going on for SN. Note the smaller head and shoulders drawn that broke, which is when I had said avoid catching a falling knife. Now we have the larger H&S formed with the major support all the back to March last year just under $6. If that gets broken to the downside then a move to $4 could easily be seen. So far it has held and note the increased volume activity on the daily bar. Unfortunately the longer the battle continues the percentages flip to the bears side for a breakdown. Need to see a significant move on volume upward.

The way I've been trading it is buying under $6 and selling above $6.75. That has given several excellent profit days including a one day move Tuesday that triggered my sells set at $6.75 as well as filled $7 covered calls out to June 16th. I cleared most of those covered calls at close yesterday because we hit close to $6. Excellent percentage gainers as long as this major support holds. If it fails then I close out everything and move on.


I had a purchase order already filled at $6.00, so I'll try to play it if it goes towards $6.75.
oldarmy1
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And if it fails below $5.75 then exit with small loss. The Put option premiums are too darn high to make it a no loss trade.
Joseph Parrish
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oldarmy1 said:

And if it fails below $5.75 then exit with small loss. The Put option premiums are too darn high to make it a no loss trade.


I'll set an alarm.
Joseph Parrish
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Anybody else see this today?

pfo
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Jim Rodgers is a very smart man and he's right about the debt being much bigger than in 2007-2008 but what do you do to protect yourself from the "biggest crash in his lifetime"? He said he moved to Singapore (which he did many years ago when he also thought the crash was coming). Do you stay out of stocks and keep everything in dollars? I suspect the value of dollars will be inflated away to nothing in the event of a debt crash. Do you put it all into gold or bitcoin now? I suspect gold would be lots better than dollars. Or do you stay invested in the best companies in the world, own some gold, own some real estate, own some cash and try to make your net worth as much as possible prior to the next crash. That's what I'm doing.

One of my favorite Jim Rodgers stories was, many years ago he was going to tell us all the next big thing to invest in. He said "Invest heavily in Sri Lanka". I didn't find that advise very helpful since I knew individuals at the time with a greater net worth than Sri Lanka.
Ragoo
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herewegoagain said:

**Warning, Not a Trader Post**

I noticed the VIX was near it lows since like 1990, curious if any of you guys use the VIX in any of your analysis.
how does one purchase the VIX for volatility swings?
oldarmy1
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Joseph Parrish said:

oldarmy1 said:

And if it fails below $5.75 then exit with small loss. The Put option premiums are too darn high to make it a no loss trade.


I'll set an alarm.


Decent bounce off support early. See if it can spike away.
Bonfire1996
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Markets think the election in England will put a pause on Brexit. And I think they are right. England will stay in the Euro because the millennials are demanding it.

Amazing. The value of getting free bennies from the government is overshadowing the potential of getting blown up by a migrant from the Eurozone.
what say you
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OA, what do you think of today's activity with SN?
oldarmy1
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what say you said:

OA, what do you think of today's activity with SN?
Well, for now $6 held and we have a decent move away from major support. It can disappear quickly though, so until/unless we see SN break above $7 we won't have an opportunity for a full reversal.
what say you
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would you still recommend your previous advice of buy under $6.00... sell and take profit at $6.75 and get out at $5.75?
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