Heineken-Ashi said:

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POWL, below $256 can leak down to $220.

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I guess it is slowing leaking down to the $220 mark

So when it falls off a cliff it's Covid and financial crisis type 40%+ drop that household/retail dip buying can't stop? Volume wasn't stupid high yesterday so that's a signal some of the carry trade is tapped out?

BrokeAssAggie said:

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I'm going in big SPY $600 2/28 calls.

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Net free on these. Putting stop limit right above my entry. See if we can get some follow through after Fed meetings.

Chef Elko said:

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So when it falls off a cliff it's Covid and financial crisis type 40%+ drop that household/retail dip buying can't stop? Volume wasn't stupid high yesterday so that's a signal some of the carry trade is tapped out?

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I'm not saying there's not cash on the side. I'm saying that there's not enough, should a significant unwind happen, that could do more than slow down the selling, until it's exhausted.

And no, the carry trade is not tapped out. Look at the charts again. We've barely seen a blip in the Yen. If something truly drastic were to happen, Aug 5th and yesterday would look like good days.

Please understand I'm not saying anything is certainly going to happen. I'm merely trying to point out where one of the largest risks to global liquidity, which is mostly leverage, is. Everyone wants to blame a single piece of news for things that happen while not understanding the complicated mechanics that have kept this system running for over a decade.

Stopped out of JBLU

nasty day

BucketofBalls99 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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POWL, below $256 can leak down to $220.

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I guess it is slowing leaking down to the $220 mark

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I'm pretty sure they report earnings after hours today too.

Marauder Blue 6 said:

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BucketofBalls99 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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POWL, below $256 can leak down to $220.

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I guess it is slowing leaking down to the $220 mark

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I'm pretty sure they report earnings after hours today too.

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2/6 AH

ETA: They're getting hit because $ETN and 3 other electric infrastructure stocks were cut to Hold today from Buy.

ProgN said:

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Marauder Blue 6 said:

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BucketofBalls99 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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POWL, below $256 can leak down to $220.

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I guess it is slowing leaking down to the $220 mark

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I'm pretty sure they report earnings after hours today too.

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2/6 AH

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one can only hope for a good earnings report

If I remember from past earnings, it seems like the stock would fall leading into earnings, and then pop after. It's looking like a good time to buy back in this week.

txaggie_08 said:

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If I remember from past earnings, it seems like the stock would fall leading into earnings, and then pop after. It's looking like a good time to buy back in this week.

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I posted yesterday that I was layering into 3/21 $250-310c.

That also happens to be around the daily 233 (fib number) EMA. But can you also spot where the late FOMO entered at vs where the smart money entered? Break that trendline (and the 233 EMA), and support falls down to the 377 EMA and volume shelf.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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UL - Buy tomorrow if above $56.60, stop $56. Target $72. Once above $59, raise stop to $57.50.

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Took this with stops at 56.50….bounce baby!

Thanks! I'll follow this carry trade more closely

It's hard to update every target and every stop, but for anyone who was following, I got stopped on DNN yesterday. Stop was moved up following the breakout after our entry, so nothing lost. Now looks like it wants lower.

Thankfully I sold all DNN last week, tiny gain, but I've been burned on DNN too many times already. I think it's worthy of long positions, but I just trade it now

Heineken-Ashi said:

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It's hard to update every target and every stop, but for anyone who was following, I got stopped on DNN yesterday. Stop was moved up following the breakout after our entry, so nothing lost. Now looks like it wants lower.

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Any new thoughts on UPST?

DIS earnings are on 2/5. They have had some pretty substantial swings the last couple of years on earnings release. Could be a strangle opportunity.

zgolfz85 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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It's hard to update every target and every stop, but for anyone who was following, I got stopped on DNN yesterday. Stop was moved up following the breakout after our entry, so nothing lost. Now looks like it wants lower.

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Any new thoughts on UPST?

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Nope. Yesterdays parameters remain.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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zgolfz85 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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It's hard to update every target and every stop, but for anyone who was following, I got stopped on DNN yesterday. Stop was moved up following the breakout after our entry, so nothing lost. Now looks like it wants lower.

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Any new thoughts on UPST?

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Nope. Yesterdays parameters remain.

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Thanks!

Heineken - have you looked at LPSN? A work acquaintance mentioned them the other day based on his charting. New management team is in place and he was very bullish. Curious if you see anything there?

Double Oaked said:

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Heineken - have you looked at LPSN? A work acquaintance mentioned them the other day based on his charting. New management team is in place and he was very bullish. Curious if you see anything there?

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Never heard of it. Does look like a long-term bottom was struck, but you never know. If bullish, looks to me like the early to mid-stages of a leading diagonal. Something like this. Huge grain of salt. Just not enough sentiment to be sure of anything. Huge volume spike at end of the year that seems to be holding a higher low. But this whole thing is overlappy, so it might be a turbulent ride. No insider buys since March of last year.

Double Oaked said:

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Heineken - have you looked at LPSN? A work acquaintance mentioned them the other day based on his charting. New management team is in place and he was very bullish. Curious if you see anything there?

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I'd be curious to hear if anyone here has any experience with them.

Their offering is a super hot topic right now, and they have a lot of big time competitors that will likely smoke them in the long run - mainly Salesforce and Twilio.

Thinking LOGI goes down on earnings today. Buying March $85 puts looking for max gain at $80. Small size.. maybe 25% of what you would do on a confident trade. All or nothing.

H-A you brought up the Yen carry.

All things remaining the same on the BOJ side of the equation, the other side of the carry trade squeeze is a weak dollar. I'm just unsure how weak the dollar would have to be in order for that scenario to play out. The Yen carry is leveraged out the wazoo. Of the many things that can cause a wild market swing, often to the downside, this one always remains on my radar. Thoughts?

almost back green on ANET. Thought about taking a pretty big gain before yesterday and watched it tank and go way red. Coming back nicely though.

TTUArmy said:

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H-A you brought up the Yen carry.

All things remaining the same on the BOJ side of the equation, the other side of the carry trade squeeze is a weak dollar. I'm just unsure how weak the dollar would have to be in order for that scenario to play out. The Yen carry is leveraged out the wazoo. Of the many things that can cause a wild market swing, often to the downside, this one always remains on my radar. Thoughts?

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Yes. Like I said, the thing that is most problematic is the Yen rising in relation to the dollar. So the dollar falling can do some damage, as it affects the cost of servicing the carry trade immediately.

Are we really not gonna grab the last 10 cents for spy gap fill?

Edit: there it is

NVDA - Yes, I was stopped out yesterday. I'm not sweating it, because it is in between two counts, one bullish, and one pretty bearish. I don't mind sitting on the sidelines until I have clarity. While MY support where I wasn't willing to stay in any longer broke, which was extended down from the higher stop that never had a chance due to yesterday's opening gap down, gave way, ultimate support did not break. So the upside target remains in the $165-$170 range should bullishness win. The downside projection now in blue shows this bounce failing to make a new high and giving way to another significant drop down to the $90-$100 region. Right now, though the chart is showing downside is primary count, I'm probably leaning bullish and will rejoin the party if after the next smaller degree top, the ensuing selloff can hold a higher low.

SPY - Like I said yesterday, as long as the blue box held, chance for higher remains. There's some alternate paths this could take, but primary is up until support breaks.

RDR's abound on the tech stocks that got beat up yesterday (VST, NVDA in particular)