Call wasn't that bad. If it hits mid $40's tomorrow or early next week, then I'm buying a few 1000 shrs.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Prog's beloved TTD just lost its lunch AH.
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CheladaAg
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— Luis Maysonet (@LuisMaysonet86) November 9, 2023
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Haven't been by in a very long time.southernskies said:
Need XOM to give me a run here. I think Farmer previously said it usually has a run up to dividend? Usually. We'll see if something can shake out here
XOM with a run to ER to Ex-Div and a run to Pay Date, that's the way it use to be. It's been absent the last 2 quarters and I think it's not showing this time (Q3 results) either. I hope I jinxed me and it runs up like the devil.
I still hold a large XOM position and will grow larger after the PXD conversion.
Crude oil,.....I don't give a rip if you think it's a conspiracy, but the DOE/EIA numbers do not effin balance and haven't for months (excess of over a year). However, the EIA did acknowledge after-the-fact that their "rebenchmarking" of production calculation accounts for more crude oil being produced than originally thought. In short, BS..
*Crude production,...the U.S. is now at and has been at record production...like 13.3mbpd. And, check out those adjustments made by EIA. Multiply those crude barrel production adjustments ("production previously unaccounted for" by 7(days) to get the weekly impact and it will blow your mind when you walk it through the S&D. (Oh really?)
*U.S. Oil Rigs went from 725 in January 2023 to 497 just last week. We have been taking rigs out of production steadily through the year. But hey,.....we are at record crude production...somehow. (Oh really?)
*The MSM keeps pumping "demand destruction" that fossil fuels aren't being used. (Hmmm....oh really?)
*Cushing, OK facility that sends crude oil to our major refineries is sitting at an inventory of 20 million barrels, or what is know as the "sludge zone" of unusable material. It's been hovering at 20 million barrels for over 3 weeks.
*Refinery utilization is at 85%. Refineries do repairs this time of year and supplies of summer blend gasoline get reduced and start making winter blends.
*The U.S. continues to import more crude(sour crude) than we export (light sweet).
*There are no crude oil inventory builds recorded anywhere and the SPR inventory level remains at the 40 year low.
*So there you have it,....RECORD U.S. crude production with 30% fewer rigs, no inventory builds, fossil fuel demand destruction, Cushing running on empty, SPR at no change in inventory and other inventories showing no builds, refineries aren't refining vast amounts.....so you tell me, where is all this crude oil hiding? And then for poops & giggles, you got a war in the ME and an unstable situation in the region, yet WTI & Brent go down in price? (Oh really?) Like $7 per barrel in the last 10 days. (Oh really?)
I don't know who's running the show at the NYMEX with WTI, but they have a sizable checkbook and they're shorting the heck out of it. I don't know if it is Fed/PPT or ?, but it's interesting to say the least.
The above points are insanity versus what is happening in the "price" world. I can feel comfortable writing/typing this, this whole time Saudi has told the truth through Joe's term in office. Saudi is extending their existing "voluntary" cuts(1 mbpd) over and above mandatory cuts for quota through December 2023. Remember, Saudi said, "Whatever it takes", regarding getting the price of Brent to $95. I believe Saudi will INCREASE their voluntary production cuts in January or February of 2024. In addition, they will cut again into 2024. Saudi, IMO, will do everything possible to undermine Joe's re-election to create high U.S. gas pump prices with a tight crude supply. I am not ruling out an embargo. Saudi noted on Nov 7th that the price of crude(WTI) is a "ploy" and not real.....; however, on the 8th they reversed directions and said the SPR could be filled in 30 to 45 days. Saudi is either telling us that a war is pending and the U.S. wants to fill the SPR (oil would spike $40 to $60 if that happen) Joe isn't going to refill the SPR, no freaking way - OR - Saudi changed their tune on Nov 8th as cover/support to announce an increased voluntary production cut in Jan or Fed of 2024, because they "just want to balance the crude market". As long as the U.S. MSM talks up "demand destruction", Saudi has strong support reasoning to cut production. Saudi has many economic projects for their country that need funding and they aren't worried about cutting production more. Saudi knows the West needs crude for decades to come and Saudi will get their price.
I'm bullish XOM. I am super glad they bought PXD. Two years of recession talk and I'm still looking for it. Maybe the recession is hiding out with all that U.S. crude oil that seems to be missing too. It has been noted that XOM was the largest shorted stock, out of the Big Caps, in October. This should not surprise you as XOM's purchase of PXD was the factor, IMO. Somebodies sold before & after the announcement. The purchasing company share's always take the hit. I do not see XOM breaking below $100 in the current trend. Of course, I didn't see this entire downward move either. The XOM:CVX spread is holding at $40 since the HES announcement and ER. I hope I live long enough to see that spread relationship disappear. I do not see XOM announcing a share dilution with the PXD acquisition. I do think XOM will make another acquisition in 2024. XOM is a cash printing machine.
Thanks for your post, but how's Mrs. Farmer doing? We all pray she's winning her battle.
I am with you, XOM became the most shorted stock this week, overtaking TSLA, usually a good sign.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Haven't been by in a very long time.southernskies said:
Need XOM to give me a run here. I think Farmer previously said it usually has a run up to dividend? Usually. We'll see if something can shake out here
XOM with a run to ER to Ex-Div and a run to Pay Date, that's the way it use to be. It's been absent the last 2 quarters and I think it's not showing this time (Q3 results) either. I hope I jinxed me and it runs up like the devil.
I still hold a large XOM position and will grow larger after the PXD conversion.
Crude oil,.....I don't give a rip if you think it's a conspiracy, but the DOE/EIA numbers do not effin balance and haven't for months (excess of over a year). However, the EIA did acknowledge after-the-fact that their "rebenchmarking" of production calculation accounts for more crude oil being produced than originally thought. In short, BS..
*Crude production,...the U.S. is now at and has been at record production...like 13.3mbpd. And, check out those adjustments made by EIA. Multiply those crude barrel production adjustments ("production previously unaccounted for" by 7(days) to get the weekly impact and it will blow your mind when you walk it through the S&D. (Oh really?)
*U.S. Oil Rigs went from 725 in January 2023 to 497 just last week. We have been taking rigs out of production steadily through the year. But hey,.....we are at record crude production...somehow. (Oh really?)
*The MSM keeps pumping "demand destruction" that fossil fuels aren't being used. (Hmmm....oh really?)
*Cushing, OK facility that sends crude oil to our major refineries is sitting at an inventory of 20 million barrels, or what is know as the "sludge zone" of unusable material. It's been hovering at 20 million barrels for over 3 weeks.
*Refinery utilization is at 85%. Refineries do repairs this time of year and supplies of summer blend gasoline get reduced and start making winter blends.
*The U.S. continues to import more crude(sour crude) than we export (light sweet).
*There are no crude oil inventory builds recorded anywhere and the SPR inventory level remains at the 40 year low.
*So there you have it,....RECORD U.S. crude production with 30% fewer rigs, no inventory builds, fossil fuel demand destruction, Cushing running on empty, SPR at no change in inventory and other inventories showing no builds, refineries aren't refining vast amounts.....so you tell me, where is all this crude oil hiding? And then for poops & giggles, you got a war in the ME and an unstable situation in the region, yet WTI & Brent go down in price? (Oh really?) Like $7 per barrel in the last 10 days. (Oh really?)
I don't know who's running the show at the NYMEX with WTI, but they have a sizable checkbook and they're shorting the heck out of it. I don't know if it is Fed/PPT or ?, but it's interesting to say the least.
The above points are insanity versus what is happening in the "price" world. I can feel comfortable writing/typing this, this whole time Saudi has told the truth through Joe's term in office. Saudi is extending their existing "voluntary" cuts(1 mbpd) over and above mandatory cuts for quota through December 2023. Remember, Saudi said, "Whatever it takes", regarding getting the price of Brent to $95. I believe Saudi will INCREASE their voluntary production cuts in January or February of 2024. In addition, they will cut again into 2024. Saudi, IMO, will do everything possible to undermine Joe's re-election to create high U.S. gas pump prices with a tight crude supply. I am not ruling out an embargo. Saudi noted on Nov 7th that the price of crude(WTI) is a "ploy" and not real.....; however, on the 8th they reversed directions and said the SPR could be filled in 30 to 45 days. Saudi is either telling us that a war is pending and the U.S. wants to fill the SPR (oil would spike $40 to $60 if that happen) Joe isn't going to refill the SPR, no freaking way - OR - Saudi changed their tune on Nov 8th as cover/support to announce an increased voluntary production cut in Jan or Fed of 2024, because they "just want to balance the crude market". As long as the U.S. MSM talks up "demand destruction", Saudi has strong support reasoning to cut production. Saudi has many economic projects for their country that need funding and they aren't worried about cutting production more. Saudi knows the West needs crude for decades to come and Saudi will get their price.
I'm bullish XOM. I am super glad they bought PXD. Two years of recession talk and I'm still looking for it. Maybe the recession is hiding out with all that U.S. crude oil that seems to be missing too. It has been noted that XOM was the largest shorted stock, out of the Big Caps, in October. This should not surprise you as XOM's purchase of PXD was the factor, IMO. Somebodies sold before & after the announcement. The purchasing company share's always take the hit. I do not see XOM breaking below $100 in the current trend. Of course, I didn't see this entire downward move either. The XOM:CVX spread is holding at $40 since the HES announcement and ER. I hope I live long enough to see that spread relationship disappear. I do not see XOM announcing a share dilution with the PXD acquisition. I do think XOM will make another acquisition in 2024. XOM is a cash printing machine.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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ProgN, thank you for the prayers. We appreciate them! Mrs. Farmer kicked the crap outta C, as far as we know. Next appointments, Nov 21 and Dec 14. However, unrelated to recent past C she had some new C come up about 10 days ago and believe they got all of that too. We joke that our chassis, internal engine components and bumper-to-bumper warranties are expiring!ProgN said:
Thanks for your post, but how's Mrs. Farmer doing? We all pray she's winning her battle.
Negative ghost rider!Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:ProgN, thank you for the prayers. We appreciate them! Mrs. Farmer kicked the crap outta C, as far as we know. Next appointments, Nov 21 and Dec 14. However, unrelated to recent past C she had some new C come up about 10 days ago and believe they got all of that too. We joke that our chassis, internal engine components and bumper-to-bumper warranties are expiring!ProgN said:
Thanks for your post, but how's Mrs. Farmer doing? We all pray she's winning her battle.
We've all pitched in on an extended warranty brother, y'all are covered.
Somebody messed up!
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
Wow!cgh1999 said:
Somebody messed up!
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
outside bar, schmoutside bar...this loony market doesn't care about the poor macros...yesterday was just another head fake for it to the "rocket to moon" "stonks only go higher" redditers to send this to ATH before year endSpoony Love said:
Check the outside bar from today. Friday could be ugly.
Sounds like an earnings prayer bet.cgh1999 said:
Somebody messed up!
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi said:Sounds like an earnings prayer bet.cgh1999 said:
Somebody messed up!
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
Was hoping that someone bought 40,000 of the $2.50 calls not 4
here.
I've got some too. I've had a sell order in for months of not years at way less than $2.48… wish they'd have bought mine.
I've got some too. I've had a sell order in for months of not years at way less than $2.48… wish they'd have bought mine.
HoustonAg2014 said:Heineken-Ashi said:Sounds like an earnings prayer bet.cgh1999 said:
Somebody messed up!
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
Was hoping that someone bought 40,000 of the $2.50 calls not 4
He's gonna buy just a few at a time so it doesn't cause a buying panic
FishrCoAg said:HoustonAg2014 said:Heineken-Ashi said:Sounds like an earnings prayer bet.cgh1999 said:
Somebody messed up!
A long time ago, I bought Jan 19, 2024 $2.5 calls on our favorite stock, WWR. Those bad boys are worthless at this point, but someone bought four contracts today for $2.48/each. . The bid/ask is right back to $0.0 / $0.05.
Was hoping that someone bought 40,000 of the $2.50 calls not 4
He's gonna buy just a few at a time so it doesn't cause a buying panic
When is the next "earnings" release?
Someone also bought the same amount of May 2024 $3 calls for $2.53 each. Immediately followed by 5 May 2024 calls being bought for $0.10 each.
Someone is either being very sneaky, or more likely, very stupid.
Be honest, which one of you is the idiot?
Someone is either being very sneaky, or more likely, very stupid.
Be honest, which one of you is the idiot?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi said:
Someone also bought the same amount of May 2024 $3 calls for $2.53 each. Immediately followed by 5 May 2024 calls being bought for $0.10 each.
Someone is either being very sneaky, or more likely, very stupid.
Be honest, which one of you is the idiot?
I didnt buy those calls but WWR has still made me feel like an idiot.
Heineken-Ashi said:
Be honest, which one of you is the idiot?
notice i cropped my screenshot so i didn't share how many of those i'm still sitting on.
so maybe not THE idiot today, but i've certainly had finer moments than WWR.
I am a glutton for punishment and bought another $5k worth of shares at $0.63 yesterday. Cost basis down to $2.60 from $5 buying the last couple months.
I can't figure out when earnings is… Yahoo said it would be Wednesday but Fidelity says like 11/20 or something like that.
I can't figure out when earnings is… Yahoo said it would be Wednesday but Fidelity says like 11/20 or something like that.
You'd have been better off selling them all and taking a tax harvesting loss.
General question for everyone in it; How long and how much capital have some of y'all locked up/lost on this WWR?
General question for everyone in it; How long and how much capital have some of y'all locked up/lost on this WWR?
Nice Ash said:
You'd have been better off selling them all and taking a tax harvesting loss.
General question for everyone in it; How long and how much capital have some of y'all locked up/lost on this WWR?
I've still got 3k shares net free so I'll probably be ok
Sorry for this basic question, I'm making sure I understand this correctly. The options buyer today is buying a few contracts several months out at strike prices well above the current stock price.
The thinking is the buyer is being sneaky and trying to lock in the option to buy stocks at those amounts because he knows something will happen to cause the stock price to rise by the expiration date? Or, he's dumb because my understanding of the price/options play is correct but the stock price isn't going that high?
The thinking is the buyer is being sneaky and trying to lock in the option to buy stocks at those amounts because he knows something will happen to cause the stock price to rise by the expiration date? Or, he's dumb because my understanding of the price/options play is correct but the stock price isn't going that high?
Have stepped away from this thread but this saddens me.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:ProgN, thank you for the prayers. We appreciate them! Mrs. Farmer kicked the crap outta C, as far as we know. Next appointments, Nov 21 and Dec 14. However, unrelated to recent past C she had some new C come up about 10 days ago and believe they got all of that too. We joke that our chassis, internal engine components and bumper-to-bumper warranties are expiring!ProgN said:
Thanks for your post, but how's Mrs. Farmer doing? We all pray she's winning her battle.
Praying for Mrs Farmer.
Yes, continued prayers for both of you.SF2004 said:Have stepped away from this thread but this saddens me.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:ProgN, thank you for the prayers. We appreciate them! Mrs. Farmer kicked the crap outta C, as far as we know. Next appointments, Nov 21 and Dec 14. However, unrelated to recent past C she had some new C come up about 10 days ago and believe they got all of that too. We joke that our chassis, internal engine components and bumper-to-bumper warranties are expiring!ProgN said:
Thanks for your post, but how's Mrs. Farmer doing? We all pray she's winning her battle.
Praying for Mrs Farmer.
You all hang in there! This hits close to home, as I just lost my mom to cancer a couple weeks ago. She had a 50/50 chance to make it 6 months with her acute myeloid leukemia, and she had 15 really good months where she responded well to chemo. She had a very good long life, and is happily spending time with Jesus, now.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:ProgN, thank you for the prayers. We appreciate them! Mrs. Farmer kicked the crap outta C, as far as we know. Next appointments, Nov 21 and Dec 14. However, unrelated to recent past C she had some new C come up about 10 days ago and believe they got all of that too. We joke that our chassis, internal engine components and bumper-to-bumper warranties are expiring!ProgN said:
Thanks for your post, but how's Mrs. Farmer doing? We all pray she's winning her battle.
To make this business related, do any of you know more about this concept (which I've been interested in for a few years):
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/prenuvo-offers-2500-full-body-mri-scans-that-can-detect-cancer-early.html
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,802
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AG
I swear we're not many years from going in once a year and getting a full body scan with ai interpretation and any sign of cancer, tumors, or whatever gets caught and dealt with then and there
There are places that do this at a good price. I did it and they were able to find something that I needed to watch. Well worth the couple hundred dollars it cost.Charismatic Megafauna said:
I swear we're not many years from going in once a year and getting a full body scan with ai interpretation and any sign of cancer, tumors, or whatever gets caught and dealt with then and there
Well, that's the thing. I'd do it for a couple hundred dollars. This article says it's $2500. That's a bit steep for me, not to mention most people. You'd think this might be worthwhile to insurance companies at some price. They pay for the "turn your head and cough" annual exam, but this might be much more accurate?n_touch said:There are places that do this at a good price. I did it and they were able to find something that I needed to watch. Well worth the couple hundred dollars it cost.Charismatic Megafauna said:
I swear we're not many years from going in once a year and getting a full body scan with ai interpretation and any sign of cancer, tumors, or whatever gets caught and dealt with then and there
TxAgLaw03RW said:
Sorry for this basic question, I'm making sure I understand this correctly. The options buyer today is buying a few contracts several months out at strike prices well above the current stock price.
The thinking is the buyer is being sneaky and trying to lock in the option to buy stocks at those amounts because he knows something will happen to cause the stock price to rise by the expiration date? Or, he's dumb because my understanding of the price/options play is correct but the stock price isn't going that high?
They either made a mistake, or they're dumb. I would sell mine today for $0.20 just to get my money back.
PLTR risen to >5% of my porftolio
cgh1999 said:TxAgLaw03RW said:
Sorry for this basic question, I'm making sure I understand this correctly. The options buyer today is buying a few contracts several months out at strike prices well above the current stock price.
The thinking is the buyer is being sneaky and trying to lock in the option to buy stocks at those amounts because he knows something will happen to cause the stock price to rise by the expiration date? Or, he's dumb because my understanding of the price/options play is correct but the stock price isn't going that high?
They either made a mistake, or they're dumb. I would sell mine today for $0.20 just to get my money back.
maybe someone can educate me... how did the buyer actually buy them for $2.48? if there are plenty of GTC orders with ask prices way lower than that, how did it even happen?
Happen at market open. Likely got caught with an algo spike on the ask price.cjo03 said:cgh1999 said:TxAgLaw03RW said:
Sorry for this basic question, I'm making sure I understand this correctly. The options buyer today is buying a few contracts several months out at strike prices well above the current stock price.
The thinking is the buyer is being sneaky and trying to lock in the option to buy stocks at those amounts because he knows something will happen to cause the stock price to rise by the expiration date? Or, he's dumb because my understanding of the price/options play is correct but the stock price isn't going that high?
They either made a mistake, or they're dumb. I would sell mine today for $0.20 just to get my money back.
maybe someone can educate me... how did the buyer actually buy them for $2.48? if there are plenty of GTC orders with ask prices way lower than that, how did it even happen?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/moodys-cuts-usa-outlook-to-negative-citing-higher-interest-rates-and-deficits.html
Look for interest rates to keep climbing.
Look for interest rates to keep climbing.
Non-event. Markets will shrug it off. SPX definitely hits 4,500…possibly even 4,600 before year end. DO NOT GET IN THE WAY OF THIS RUNAWAY TRAIN! (Until after the '24 election)
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