We really gonna end an OPEX day +-0.10 on SPY?

Somethings coming.

FJ43 said:

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Somethings coming.

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FJ43 said:

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FJ43 said:

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Somethings coming.

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Dirty little move. That why you wait for confirming.

Can the bears flush it here?

Nope. Puky day to try to trade, as 30k predicted

Dang pop at the end got me. Had 2 4125 flies, closed one at 100% early, so at least B/E minus fees.

interesting stuff...so what level would we consider a blow-off top? 4,400? 4,500? shorts gonna get punished with another ~10% SPX

thought you'd find this interesting, probably others as well... TLDR version: VIX disconnect from equities

Junk bond yields are materially diverging from overall equity volatility, which appears to be unreasonably suppressed.

To put this into perspective, the last time junk bonds yielded near the current levels, the VIX was hovering around 50.

Today, equity volatility is at the same… pic.twitter.com/2qboM88cVq

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 20, 2023

I don't think you're wrong fwiw. I'd be interested in hearing what catalysts they see from people that think the market is undervalued and going higher. Maybe they see something that I'm missing and that's why we're all here.

FJ43 said:

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Hope I'm not wrong but I am loaded with May VIX calls.

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I bet you'll make out like a bandit. I think he was making the case that volatility will rip sooner rather than later...it won't continue like this, strange really.
He's a good follow, has some great takes on metals too (gold and silver in particular).

I sold my VIX calls for small profit... figured I could get back in at a little lower price.
but didn't do it ... hoping for Monday.

Oh do tell. Been in bed sick all weekend and I need something to wake me up. What makes it significant? Just the number of earnings reports?

Spoony Love said:

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Oh do tell. Been in bed sick all weekend and I need something to wake me up. What makes it significant? Just the number of earnings reports?

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stay away in May is very close too. Seasonality is going to take it's pound of flesh.

and another great tweet by this guy... charting tops in relation to earnings. We are at one now.

There has been a significant contraction in diluted earnings, despite basic EPS being near all-time highs.

Like the economy, corporate fundamentals undergo short and long-term cycles, and we are likely at the peak of another prolonged earnings growth period, which appears to be… pic.twitter.com/mxWDRD1OZZ

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 22, 2023

Everyone still a fan of IBKR for trading?

I'm done with Fidelity after the last 72 hours.

I had SPY flies 412/13/14 for Friday opex. SPY closed at 412.2. Woke up Saturday morning to a you've been assigned email and 400 shares of SPY in my account. Last night into this morning, waiting for trading to open up so I could sell, sucked.

It's rare I hold to expiration, but did on these. In the past they would always exercise and sell for me, so I'd just get the sales proceeds in my account. This time they assigned. Talked with the help desk this morning and they said the policy was changed at the start of the year such that if you're in the money they are going to assign.

F that.

ATLX

Any idea what is going on and how long to hold. I sold some off at 20 to recover most of my cost

What happened with fidelity? I use them and I'm not a huge fan of the interface - but I get good fills

edit: oh this is when you got assigned the XOM stuff?

never put yourself in that position. always close.

these openings and IB periods lately have been just gross.

cryption said:

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What happened with fidelity? I use them and I'm not a huge fan of the interface - but I get good fills

edit: oh this is when you got assigned the XOM stuff?

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165k in SPY shares for 412 calls when it closed at 412.2 on Friday.

cryption said:

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What happened with fidelity? I use them and I'm not a huge fan of the interface - but I get good fills

edit: oh this is when you got assigned the XOM stuff?

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That was me. 800 shares. Luckily it went up a few days later and I actually made a little profit even after paying the premium and margin interest. Lesson learned for sure though

But he raises a good question, because under similar circumstances in the past Schwab didn't exercise options that were ITM. So I wonder if they also changed a policy

My alert for TSLA puts triggered a few minutes ago but I'm walking into a meeting dammit

WTF just happened?

Sorry that happened to you both. Looks like XOM worked out at least

Anyone else 50/50 with either a bull trap or bear trap?

topher06 said:

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WTF just happened?

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Came here to ask the same.

I think it's just volatility. SPY has done this several times recently.