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Last: 3 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
wow, big volume the other way! I jumped into a couple SPY calls.perma Brew doomster said:
Squeeze it!
Per 30K, tax harvesting must be in by 12/28 at the latest for the accounts to settle for tax year 2022. Suspect most of selling aggressively should be done by then, but I will say that Santa rallies are typically associated with years in which the market is green and therefore new profits need to be put to work.
That's a Canadian Rule, the 30th is the last day for Americans.
How would you know?? I'd rather trust a CPA.
Ag CPA said:
That's a Canadian Rule, the 30th is the last day for Americans.
Don't accounts usually take 2-3 days to settle any non-margin, stock position? Options take 1 day but stock is 2-3, no?
Ag CPA said:
That's a Canadian Rule, the 30th is the last day for Americans.
Nevermind. I saw your screen name. Will defer to your expertise. Lol
They're beating crap out of TSLA. Those buy and hold people that loved all those recent splits are not having a pleasant Christmas season.
Exactly what i wanted to see , bad year , no Santa Claus rally , year end tax trading , " window dressing " by professionals , panic or capitulatory selling - I am buying this week aggressively .
sts7049 said:eh...yeah i know it's far OTM, but 120s are about $5. i want more than one contract, so too much for a lotto for me.$30,000 Millionaire said:sts7049 said:
taking a TSLA lotto... next week's 140Cs.
Too far. Do 120s.
paper handed this one. will revisit tomorrow
A rough five days for TSLA (-25%)
Starting to get tempted into writing a few 2/17 puts in the 80 to 90 strike range if that premium can get to 10.00
Starting to get tempted into writing a few 2/17 puts in the 80 to 90 strike range if that premium can get to 10.00
Down 62% in 3 months doesn't seem normal for a mega-capYaketyYak said:
A rough five days for TSLA (-25%)
Starting to get tempted into writing a few 2/17 puts in the 80 to 90 strike range if that premium can get to 10.00
Rivian (RIVN) also down as much as TESLA. So don't fall for the F16 stuff about Elon/Twitter creating a sell off.
RIVN makes a solid EV. Bezos/AMZN owns about 20%, Saudi private equity 15% and Ford 10%. They either trade north of $50 in 2024 or Bezos buys them out in Ch 11. I'm loading some 2024 $30 calls here.
RIVN makes a solid EV. Bezos/AMZN owns about 20%, Saudi private equity 15% and Ford 10%. They either trade north of $50 in 2024 or Bezos buys them out in Ch 11. I'm loading some 2024 $30 calls here.
Two days into the "Santa Clause rally" and still no presents besides getting to watch Tesla and Southwest implode, see if things turn around…
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Out snow throwing. Took a break. I guess an hour ago Putin getting ready to respond. Putin decrees that no Russian oil can be sold to any country participating in the price cap... details to follow.
Here it is
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Putin-Bans-Oil-Sales-To-Countries-That-Comply-With-G7-Oil-Price-Cap.html
Putin layin' wood.
Next up will be Saudi.
I'm sure JB is on his knees right now begging Saudi not to cut production while simultaneously working the WTI manipulation in an effort to force Putin into selling cheap crude, make the Price Caps look effective, and enable the SPR refill at a number closer to his 'seventy dollar' mark.
Won't work in the end.
And, U.S. Big Oil has ZERO incentive to help.
UK and EU,...not sure I'd be long anything in those countries.
JB in deep doo, IMO.
Go XOM! (Approx 4% away from ATH. What other stocks are in this category today?)
Gas is bound to be $4.00 again in summer
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Yes.DeangeloVickers said:
Gas is bound to be $4.00 again in summer
To the first week in December, my town in SD was $4.39 for 87/10% and $4.59 for 87/0%. Surrounding areas were close to a $1 discount. I think the locals finally got the message, but not sure. I haven't filled since before Thanksgiving. Currently using my stored early Fall supply.
I finished all my tax harvesting two weeks ago. Thankfully not much.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I also put an order in for LABU at $6.10 GTC + EXT.
Want $7
Want $7
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Also, read this re: TSLA
https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3352186
https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3352186
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Twins: (1) TSLA 2 months ago vs. AAPL right now. (2) amazingly, even the path leading up to the peak looks the same, including the breakaway gap. (3) not to mention, a crash of AAPL this magnitude has much bigger impact on the broader market. Seatbelt on, plz, as 2023 is coming pic.twitter.com/VrRchdFFjc
— Master WU (@MasterPandaWu) December 28, 2022
We are not in for fun times in the next few quarters are we?
I am a half hair more intelligent than a Jersey housewife (maybe) when it comes to broad economics but from what little I do know, and hear, is that at least some portion of doom and gloom is very possible, even probable in the near future.
I am in a new career and in a new city, basically starting all over again and trying to tell myself that laying low for the next year or so would probably be prudent. In terms of big plans and whatnot. Such as a new house. Mainly just a hunker down and wait and see. Prudent or overly pessimistic?
Curious as to y'all's ten second thought processes are if ya have them.
I am a half hair more intelligent than a Jersey housewife (maybe) when it comes to broad economics but from what little I do know, and hear, is that at least some portion of doom and gloom is very possible, even probable in the near future.
I am in a new career and in a new city, basically starting all over again and trying to tell myself that laying low for the next year or so would probably be prudent. In terms of big plans and whatnot. Such as a new house. Mainly just a hunker down and wait and see. Prudent or overly pessimistic?
Curious as to y'all's ten second thought processes are if ya have them.
As with any prediction of the future we could be right or wrong. But it seems to me there's been an awful lot of manipulation going on leading up to the elections and EOY. I just can't imagine the piper not asking for payment at some point.
Very prudent. Values will come down and rates will too.Eliminatus said:
We are not in for fun times in the next few quarters are we?
I am a half hair more intelligent than a Jersey housewife (maybe) when it comes to broad economics but from what little I do know, and hear, is that at least some portion of doom and gloom is very possible, even probable in the near future.
I am in a new career and in a new city, basically starting all over again and trying to tell myself that laying low for the next year or so would probably be prudent. In terms of big plans and whatnot. Such as a new house. Mainly just a hunker down and wait and see. Prudent or overly pessimistic?
Curious as to y'all's ten second thought processes are if ya have them.
We will bottom within 6-8 months. But it may not be awesome on the way. It's been one year since the ATH cracked. Back to back down years are very rare.
2008 started October 2007, bottomed March 2009. 17 months.
We are 12 months in.
2008 started October 2007, bottomed March 2009. 17 months.
We are 12 months in.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Possibly a violent drop 1st, then rebound a bit, then bottom.
2nd half of 2023 could be a once in a decade or so opportunity to get in at a low price for $DIS and $SPY.
2nd half of 2023 could be a once in a decade or so opportunity to get in at a low price for $DIS and $SPY.
Bottom will be marked with fed pivot by the way.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$DIS is a piece of crap. I don't get why everyone is so enamored with them.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
We will bottom within 6-8 months. But it may not be awesome on the way. It's been one year since the ATH cracked. Back to back down years are very rare.
2008 started October 2007, bottomed March 2009. 17 months.
We are 12 months in.
Choose your words carefully. After ATH's following extreme decade long moves up, bottoms don't come in two years. Those are merely the end of the first phase. You then get a period of seemingly multi years of rebound before something happens to cause a true bottoming event. You know it's still a part of the same correction because it takes a long time to merely just get back to previous highs. And it feels like things are fighting very hard just to prove that they aren't failing. That's because they are. They're fighting like crazy as a last gap of a bull market long gone. Then they finally roll over.
2009 wasn't the bottom of 2008 or 2007. It was the bottom of what started in 2000. 1974 wasn't the bottom of 1972, but the bottom of 1968/1969. And though it didn't make a new low.. it's likely that 1942 was actually the final bottom of the Great Depression.
Which is interesting.. the Great Depression was preceded by a 9-10 year run up where SPX grew parabolic.. ~5x over that time.
Before 2022, the market was preceded by a 12-13. Year parabolic run up where SPX grew nearly 6-7x. Are we about to get a 10 year+ bear market?
Whatever happens over the next two years is likely just the end of the beginning.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
$30,000 Millionaire said:
We will bottom within 6-8 months. But it may not be awesome on the way. It's been one year since the ATH cracked. Back to back down years are very rare.
2008 started October 2007, bottomed March 2009. 17 months.
We are 12 months in.
Lost 20% already and still haven't had the capitulation moment.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Heineken-Ashi said:
Which is interesting.. the Great Depression was preceded by a 9-10 year run up where SPX grew parabolic.. ~5x over that time.
.
Just think if those 1920's 1:3 margin ratios existed today.
I don't see it that way. In the total history of the S&P 2000-2013 looks like consolidation for our current run up. My definition is a multiple year bottom not a permanent level we'll never come back to.
I think the current downtrend resumes an uptrend by the end of 2023. How long that lasts, don't know.
I think the current downtrend resumes an uptrend by the end of 2023. How long that lasts, don't know.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Side note: want to witness a corporate governance failure? Look at $LUV.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Do you agree with those who believe we're in a unavoidable sovereign debt spiral? The timelines I've read for that process playing out is as soon as 5, but likely 10ish years.
The idea is that it's been inevitable since 1972, and gas was poured on the fire in 2000, and they lit the bonfire in 2008-2009. 2020 M2 activity was adding logs to keep the party going. The petrodollar is the last levy preventing a US default.
I am not savvy enough with charting to be able to see if any of what you are showing indicates whether the next cycle aligns with the 5-10 year prediction I keep seeing thrown around or if it says something else entirely. Any thoughts?
The idea is that it's been inevitable since 1972, and gas was poured on the fire in 2000, and they lit the bonfire in 2008-2009. 2020 M2 activity was adding logs to keep the party going. The petrodollar is the last levy preventing a US default.
I am not savvy enough with charting to be able to see if any of what you are showing indicates whether the next cycle aligns with the 5-10 year prediction I keep seeing thrown around or if it says something else entirely. Any thoughts?
Our collapse is unavoidable and it's being purposefully engineered by our "leaders". Whether it's in 5-10 years, no one knows but when it happens charts will mean zip.
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