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59 South
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:57a, 10/11/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
59 South said:
Channeled my inner 30k today

Well done.
Thanks for sharing your method mate.... I love it. SPX options are the way to go - love the cash settlement aspect as well as tax advantages. I ran the puts trade back again later from 6.50 to 11-12. Went for a small lotto at end of day but was happy with the r/r on those.

I even have kinda copy catted your spreadsheet - to the others, 30k is onto something here. You need a little practice but after you work out the kinks, things are really fairly straightforward and easy. You gotta cut the losers though, manage risk and manage setting/changing stops.



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59 South
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5:17a, 10/11/22
AG
Some visualization - note how I missed the real fun - 18:00-20:00 is blocked for dinner and getting the kids to bed.

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sts7049
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7:39a, 10/11/22
AG
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BaylorSpineGuy
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8:36a, 10/11/22
Does anyone still think the S&P seasonality chart will still play out? It's basically been dead wrong most of this year with sporadic moments of accuracy. There's typically a bounce in October of midterm election years.

I'd like to go short but failed to get my shorts in before the drop started late last week, and now I feel to enter short here would be chasing. Is this the wrong mentality? I may enter a straddle tomorrow afternoon before CPI on Thursday.
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Quacked
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:37a, 10/11/22
Idiot here, when you say 2750-2900 you mean the DJI?


Quote:
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here
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sts7049
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:41a, 10/11/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Does anyone still think the S&P seasonality chart will still play out? It's basically been dead wrong most of this year with sporadic moments of accuracy. There's typically a bounce in October of midterm election years.

I'd like to go short but failed to get my shorts in before the drop started late last week, and now I feel to enter short here would be chasing. Is this the wrong mentality? I may enter a straddle tomorrow afternoon before CPI on Thursday.
dead wrong? it's been pretty spot on actually.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to sts7049 • 8:43a, 10/11/22
The market is down 25% this year. The seasonality chart shows 4-6% growth annually. Some of the months have traded similarly but let's be honest, this is an outlier year.


Enjoy this!
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gig em 02
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8:49a, 10/11/22
Why does the phrase "is everyone feeling bearish now?" not apply? Everyone on twitter is predicting the end of times.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Quacked • 8:51a, 10/11/22
AG
storey979 said:
Idiot here, when you say 2750-2900 you mean the DJI?


Quote:
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here


Believe he's talking about the SP500.

He's not the only one with that thesis either. We are in no man's land right now. We've broken through some key areas of support. I don't see anything until 3300. It gets worse as you zoom out.


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South Platte
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In reply to Quacked • 8:52a, 10/11/22
storey979 said:
Idiot here, when you say 2750-2900 you mean the DJI?


Quote:
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here
S&P 500
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:53a, 10/11/22
AG
Buy when there is fear.
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59 South
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8:53a, 10/11/22
AG
Just made low of the year. It is bear market rally or free fall time.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to gig em 02 • 8:53a, 10/11/22
AG
gig em 02 said:
Why does the phrase "is everyone feeling bearish now?" not apply? Everyone on twitter is predicting the end of times.
remember follks:
Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN
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BaylorSpineGuy
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8:58a, 10/11/22
356.50 was near the low of PM trading. Will see if we get a relief bounce.
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gig em 02
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In reply to Spoony Love • 9:14a, 10/11/22
Spoony Love said:
gig em 02 said:
Why does the phrase "is everyone feeling bearish now?" not apply? Everyone on twitter is predicting the end of times.
remember follks:
Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN


I should've responded directly to 30k to see why he is so bearish given the psychological indicators (that I know he is aware of).
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Philip J Fry
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9:15a, 10/11/22
AG
There's also a saying of don't fight the fed or don't fight the trend.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to gig em 02 • 9:30a, 10/11/22
gig em 02 said:
Why does the phrase "is everyone feeling bearish now?" not apply? Everyone on twitter is predicting the end of times.
Do the opposite of FinTwit. It's almost time to go long
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LMCane
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:31a, 10/11/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
I'm not sure we revisit ATH's any time soon. My opinion. Island top at 4100 range. Those often don't get closed…..for VERY long times. I'd put a lid on this thing at being below 4000 for a few years at least. Inflation is entrenched. Agree that CPI is likely gonna devastate on Thursday. May get a Black Thursday this week. I may buy a couple lottos in both directions but suspect investors will get rugged after the CPI prints.

Oil dipped a bit today but I noticed price at the pump by my hospital is up about 40 cents in last week or so. As I said, inflation is entrenched. Someone on here said food prices seasonally are going up now. Don't listen to the hot air coming from CNBC. I doubt CPI drops meaningfully any time soon. Has on average taken between 5-10 yrs to control inflation once it goes above 5%.
fuel prices more expensive for gasoline and diesel in Maryland and Virginia over the past few days

(I drove out to the Shenandoah through WV but their fuel is always pretty cheap)

diesel over $5 again
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:35a, 10/11/22
AG
Trying UPRO, small size because counter trend.

Stop 28.75
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:38a, 10/11/22
AG
You'll see more stock plays out of me vs options. I can not watch intraday, so I need things I can set and forget with alerts.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:42a, 10/11/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Trying UPRO, small size because counter trend.

Stop 28.75


Trimmed 20%, set stops to break even on rest.

28.05 > 28.4

Stops now 28.1
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:43a, 10/11/22
AG
Zero risk trade now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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LMCane
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:55a, 10/11/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
My thought process very simply:

1) think AAPL will continue to do well in the future and a $20 decline right now is meaningless if I think there is continued upside

2) I would have to pay 15% capital gains tax to sell. If I were to rebuy, I would need to get 18% upside from my entry.

3) the dividend relative to my original investment is close to 20-%. I am enrolled in the drip and get more shares. I do sell some of the new shares to cover taxes

4) why would I want to worry about this on literally every investment I own all of the time? As people we have finite mental energy. I'd rather pull some money out of the market trading and let the rest just ride.

this is the quintessential difference between traders and investors.

you also left out the FACT that there are like 10 days in the markets which see massive gains over a year.

if you are out on that day, you just lost a significant amount of potential profit.

which is why trying to time the market has been proven to be a fools errand and every great investor tells people to buy and hold long term.

what happens if he sells Apple today, and tomorrow it goes up 3%, then the day after it goes up 2% and the day after it goes up 4%?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:59a, 10/11/22
AG
Sold the last of my QQQ for a small loss, set more limit orders for TQQQ below.
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sts7049
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 10:04a, 10/11/22
AG
how much would you have made in the last month if you were playing SQQQ? instead of gambling on the reversal
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Golf1
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10:05a, 10/11/22
AG
That was a big candle on SPY
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Brian Earl Spilner
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10:05a, 10/11/22
AG
News? Huge green candles.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to sts7049 • 10:06a, 10/11/22
AG
sts7049 said:
how much would you have made in the last month if you were playing SQQQ? instead of gambling on the reversal
You're implying SQQQ isn't gambling.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:06a, 10/11/22
AG
Sold 20% more of upro at 28.6

Will hold remaining 60% until stopped out or EOD.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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10:07a, 10/11/22
AG
Didn't you see? 30k took a counter trend long. Also I'm pretty sure when he farts it smells like peppermint
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sts7049
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 10:07a, 10/11/22
AG
it's respecting the trend instead of trying to catch a knife
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Charismatic Megafauna
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10:16a, 10/11/22
AG
I don't really understand this but it sounds exciting
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 10:31a, 10/11/22
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Didn't you see? 30k took a counter trend long. Also I'm pretty sure when he farts it smells like peppermint


No, it smells like nasty shiat.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:32a, 10/11/22
AG
I'm going to move stops to 28.4 now on upro.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:33a, 10/11/22
AG
Congrats if you took upro with me.
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