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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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1:54p, 10/10/22
Social Media reporting Iranian oil workers walking off the job (on-strike) at 2 refineries.

Random note, allegedly European Banks and Utilities got a $2 trillion margin call this morning..? Anyone else reading this? I know on Sep 6th it was reported that a $1.5 trillion margin call was due.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 2:14p, 10/10/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Social Media reporting Iranian oil workers walking off the job (on-strike) at 2 refineries.

Random note, allegedly European Banks and Utilities got a $2 trillion margin call this morning..? Anyone else reading this? I know on Sep 6th it was reported that a $1.5 trillion margin call was due.
way to go big banks! lol

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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to 59 South • 4:34p, 10/10/22
AG
59 South said:
Channeled my inner 30k today

Well done.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:41p, 10/10/22
AG
Low key day for me. I mismanaged both SQQQ and UPRO. I couldn't really watch so I set tight stops.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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4:50p, 10/10/22
I'm not sure we revisit ATH's any time soon. My opinion. Island top at 4100 range. Those often don't get closed…..for VERY long times. I'd put a lid on this thing at being below 4000 for a few years at least. Inflation is entrenched. Agree that CPI is likely gonna devastate on Thursday. May get a Black Thursday this week. I may buy a couple lottos in both directions but suspect investors will get rugged after the CPI prints.

Oil dipped a bit today but I noticed price at the pump by my hospital is up about 40 cents in last week or so. As I said, inflation is entrenched. Someone on here said food prices seasonally are going up now. Don't listen to the hot air coming from CNBC. I doubt CPI drops meaningfully any time soon. Has on average taken between 5-10 yrs to control inflation once it goes above 5%.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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5:11p, 10/10/22
AG
What I think will happen (in order of probability):

1) we will see pre-covid highs in 2022 and have some sort of bounce that can be traded off of. We are so close, it just has to happen. I have very high conviction on this
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here
3) possible covid low as final bottom area if fed doesn't pivot. This is a -55% scenario. I would have most capital deployed here
4) 1800 area as an overshoot of covid low before rapid recovery. This is a -60% scenario and would correspond to 2008/2009 type dips. I would have 100% deployed at this area
5) mother of all implosions, trading down to 1500 area. Not very likely in my opinion.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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5:15p, 10/10/22
AG
Time from top to bottom of major cycles is 1.5 to 2.5 years. I just don't see this being a V recovery.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 5:21p, 10/10/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Time from top to bottom of major cycles is 1.5 to 2.5 years. I just don't see this being a V recovery.


This is absolutely correct. V bottoms = quantitative easing.
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Wannabud
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 5:31p, 10/10/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
What I think will happen (in order of probability):

1) we will see pre-covid highs in 2022 and have some sort of bounce that can be traded off of. We are so close, it just has to happen. I have very high conviction on this
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here
3) possible covid low as final bottom area if fed doesn't pivot. This is a -55% scenario. I would have most capital deployed here
4) 1800 area as an overshoot of covid low before rapid recovery. This is a -60% scenario and would correspond to 2008/2009 type dips. I would have 100% deployed at this area
5) mother of all implosions, trading down to 1500 area. Not very likely in my opinion.



1. Will most certainly happen
2. If we get here what would be the catalyst to push us lower at that point? That is the bigger question. I think we could bounce off those levels multiple times without a major event or multiple catalysts at once to push us lower.
3. Yikes, but has to be considered in play at this point.
4. Double yikes.
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SF2004
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 5:35p, 10/10/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
What I think will happen (in order of probability):

1) we will see pre-covid highs in 2022 and have some sort of bounce that can be traded off of. We are so close, it just has to happen. I have very high conviction on this
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here
3) possible covid low as final bottom area if fed doesn't pivot. This is a -55% scenario. I would have most capital deployed here
4) 1800 area as an overshoot of covid low before rapid recovery. This is a -60% scenario and would correspond to 2008/2009 type dips. I would have 100% deployed at this area
5) mother of all implosions, trading down to 1500 area. Not very likely in my opinion.

Always appreciate your posts.
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BlueTaze
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5:39p, 10/10/22
Today, Jamie Dimon warned of possible further 20% decline coming. In June, he warned of an "economic hurricane", then we rallied hard into August.

I think he is early, again. Need people to get bullish again before that kinda rug pull.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:16p, 10/10/22
AG

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:20p, 10/10/22
If COVID lows are reached, I'll have all of my capital deployed by then. I'm thinking bounce around that 3300 area then capitulate just a bit lower after that bounce fails. The rest of the world is likely much worse off then us if that happens, so I think we get foreign money into US equities.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:22p, 10/10/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:



Do you think those other breakaway gaps likely don't get filled? Looks to be several more right below there.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:43p, 10/10/22
Certainly not saying you're wrong, but if you have high conviction we go a lot lower then why own anything (if you do) right now aside from trading?
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BlueTaze
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7:38p, 10/10/22
2 major horizontal alert lines on my ES chart at 3730 and 3575. FOMC minutes Wed and CPI Thursday, so likely we break thru one of these levels with momentum squeezing all those offsides.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to wanderer • 9:02p, 10/10/22
AG
wanderer said:
Certainly not saying you're wrong, but if you have high conviction we go a lot lower then why own anything (if you do) right now aside from trading?


This is complicated to explain but you really have to have multiple personas if you are going to be active in the market. Long term investing is buy quality and hang onto it.

For example, why would I sell AAPL I bought in 2009 that pays dividends? The split adjusted price of it is $5 and the dividends have more than covered the initial investment many times over.

The heart of your question is why so many traders don't have long term accounts but have real estate portfolios.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:04p, 10/10/22
AG
SPY will be $1,000 if they don't split it by 2030.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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9:07p, 10/10/22
AG
It will certainly be 650 by then and it pays dividends. I'll bet my money with anyone that wants to bet that SPY will be 650 by 2030. You'll get an opportunity to buy this year or next at 325 if not sub 300.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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In reply to Wannabud • 9:13p, 10/10/22
AG
Wannabud said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
What I think will happen (in order of probability):

1) we will see pre-covid highs in 2022 and have some sort of bounce that can be traded off of. We are so close, it just has to happen. I have very high conviction on this
2) likely 2750-2900 area touch in early 2023. This area is very well tested and will have major support, could be a bottom for a shallow recession. This is -40% territory. All of us should start being buyers here
3) possible covid low as final bottom area if fed doesn't pivot. This is a -55% scenario. I would have most capital deployed here
4) 1800 area as an overshoot of covid low before rapid recovery. This is a -60% scenario and would correspond to 2008/2009 type dips. I would have 100% deployed at this area
5) mother of all implosions, trading down to 1500 area. Not very likely in my opinion.



1. Will most certainly happen
2. If we get here what would be the catalyst to push us lower at that point? That is the bigger question. I think we could bounce off those levels multiple times without a major event or multiple catalysts at once to push us lower.
3. Yikes, but has to be considered in play at this point.
4. Double yikes.


On 2) does there have to be a catalyst? A train doesn't easily stop once it's moving in a direction at speed. Markets always overreact in both dimensions. Just like we are having a bubble (that's since popped). Why couldn't we have a bust? If the fed doesn't pivot and people turn off passive buying, it could happen without much effort.

A catalyst could be anything. The most likely catalyst is nuclear war or some sort of constitutional crisis here. I think the US is closer to civil war than it has been since the civil war. Side A and side B literally think they are 100% right and the opposing side is 100% wrong.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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sts7049
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9:16p, 10/10/22
AG
futures dropping
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:21p, 10/10/22
Good perspective, but in your example, why hold onto APPL if you think it's going to drop another $20-30? The $1 dividend/yr is dwarfed by the thinking that it goes much lower. Where your cost basis is seems irrelevant. As you've said before, realized gains/losses are the same as unrealized gains/losses.

Please don't let this come off as me arguing or disagreeing, I'm just trying to full understand the thinking.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:28p, 10/10/22
Drunkenmiller will bet you. He is predicting equities are flat or decline over next decade.

Not that he hasn't been wrong a lot, or isn't wrong on this. But if we get the "great reset" that many elite globalists really want, then it's a possibility we stagflate for an extended period.
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gig em 02
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In reply to wanderer • 9:32p, 10/10/22
wanderer said:
Good perspective, but in your example, why hold onto APPL if you think it's going to drop another $20-30? The $1 dividend/yr is dwarfed by the thinking that it goes much lower. Where your cost basis is seems irrelevant. As you've said before, realized gains/losses are the same as unrealized gains/losses.

Please don't let this come off as me arguing or disagreeing, I'm just trying to full understand the thinking.


Diversification, different accounts with different objectives
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Buck Compton
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In reply to wanderer • 9:36p, 10/10/22
AG
wanderer said:
Good perspective, but in your example, why hold onto APPL if you think it's going to drop another $20-30? Where your cost basis is seems irrelevant. As you've said before, realized gains/losses are the same as unrealized gains/losses.

Please don't let this come off as me arguing or disagreeing, I'm just trying to full understand the thinking.
Now you're playing timing as well as messing with tax basis. Maybe he doesn't want to pay 15-20% on all those gains this year. He'd only effectively have $80,000 to put back in AAPL if he chose to buy it back in a few months. Yes, in the long-term you'll pay tax on your capital gains eventually, but there are estate planning ways to even avoid that when you get to the end of the road.

If he thinks APPL is going down, then he could just sell calls against the position on the way down to pull money out, still collect dividends from owning the shares, and go from there.

But again, just because his thesis is that it goes down doesn't mean it does, or that he times it right. It's okay to hedge your bets a bit, and this is one of his longest term and safest bets. Don't bet against it.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to wanderer • 9:38p, 10/10/22
AG
My thought process very simply:

1) think AAPL will continue to do well in the future and a $20 decline right now is meaningless if I think there is continued upside

2) I would have to pay 15% capital gains tax to sell. If I were to rebuy, I would need to get 18% upside from my entry.

3) the dividend relative to my original investment is close to 20-%. I am enrolled in the drip and get more shares. I do sell some of the new shares to cover taxes

4) why would I want to worry about this on literally every investment I own all of the time? As people we have finite mental energy. I'd rather pull some money out of the market trading and let the rest just ride.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:42p, 10/10/22
AG
20%, so it would be 25% to be back to square one.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:49p, 10/10/22
Thanks for the reply.

This is clearly an area I struggle with. Not knowing when to cash in on something that has skyrocketed, holding on through pain and then selling it at extreme fear (capitulation), etc. Being patient is a struggle.
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In reply to BlueTaze • 9:55p, 10/10/22
AG
BlueTaze said:
Drunkenmiller will bet you. He is predicting equities are flat or decline over next decade.

Not that he hasn't been wrong a lot, or isn't wrong on this. But if we get the "great reset" that many elite globalists really want, then it's a possibility we stagflate for an extended period.


Anything is possible. Population is growing fast and there is a lot of innovation. The question would be flat to down from where. The 1970s are the best corollary and while it can only be described as a decade of chop, there were still new highs made. 1973 was a seven year high, but when it broke out - wow.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to wanderer • 9:56p, 10/10/22
AG
Do you have a plan for what you're buying?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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10:02p, 10/10/22
AG
Here's my plan for Exxon.


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:12p, 10/10/22
AG
Rationale here is very simple: Exxon broke out, I didn't show more of the left side of the chart but it's bull flagging on the monthly chart. If you just wanted to trade the monthly your stop would be $80 and your target $120+.

On the daily, it's in an uptrend. The stop would be break of the uptrend, you would start scaling where XOM has historical resistance.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:28p, 10/10/22
My plan isn't always defined. Hope is a strategy more than it should be, I'll admit

I struggle with separating trading from investing and knowing when to apply what strategy to what ticker.
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In reply to wanderer • 10:56p, 10/10/22
AG
Sell premium.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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12:08a, 10/11/22
Quick Notes:
*Appears Biden approached Trudeau about reopening the Excel Pipeline. Trudeau said no. (Bullish)
*G7 appears to be going forward with Russian Price Caps. Albeit, they start Dec 5th the smoke is thick so fire must be there. (Bullish)
*Europe is running out of diesel in October. Premiums being paid for Oct delivery. (Bullish)
*India appears to be stepping in on the Sakhalin-1 project where Exxon is exiting. (Neutral)
*On Monday, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States was $3.919, up from $3.799 a week ago, and up from $3.724 a month ago. (Bullish)

1974, 15 years old and a 1971 Ford F-150 and my 8 track belting out the Crude Oil Blues blowing my money on gas crusin' main street. $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel. The Embargo. SPR gets created. 1979 was worse in my opinion.

RIP Jerry Reed

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