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24,928,285 Views | 233714 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by jamey
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In reply to Gabster43213 • 9:38a, 10/1/22
AG
Gabster43213 said:
What about if your time horizon is 5 years?


5 years for an investment to pan out or not is different than I'm retiring in 5 years. If you listened to these foolish financial planners they would have recommended a 60/40 portfolio and you would have been murdered on all.

From your posts I get the impression you are retiring in 5. Based on what you ask as well, I don't think you're knowledgeable enough about the market to actively trade. Many people in your position are looking for their portfolio to provide income to them. They own stocks that pay dividends first and capital appreciate second.

My suggestion is to interview a bunch of credible outside experts and pick one to manage your portfolio for you.
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 9:41a, 10/1/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Food for thought…

If you bought at the top of the market in 2002, it would have taken you 13 years to break even.


Well, not totally true if you collected dividends along the way. DIA pays a 2% dividend. However it has still come back over the long horizon.
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In reply to jamey • 9:42a, 10/1/22
AG
jamey said:
So yall are thinking it may or may not bounce or rally near term from here but either way we got further downside from the current s&p 3585


The trend is down but it will revert upward to the mean before resuming further downward action.
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9:48a, 10/1/22
AG
I think price touching this blue arrow is very likely.
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Chef Elko
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9:48a, 10/1/22
AG
Gazprom shut off all gas to Italy
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 9:49a, 10/1/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Food for thought…

If you bought at the top of the market in 2002, it would have taken you 13 years to break even.


You're also referring to QQQ, but I won't split hairs
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In reply to Chef Elko • 9:51a, 10/1/22
AG
Danwell Home said:
Gazprom shut off all gas to Italy


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/italys-eni-says-russia-will-not-supply-gas-requested-oct-1-2022-10-01/
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Chef Elko
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:01a, 10/1/22
AG
I believe a few weeks ago Italy said they've secured all the gas needed for winter. Russia has been using this as pressure and I think it's plausible they blew up Nord Stream as well.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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10:46a, 10/1/22


No idea if this is fluff/BS, but my guess is credit Suisse or Deutsche Bank. Will be major contagion if that happens.

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11:42a, 10/1/22
AG
Look at $CS chart.
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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:51a, 10/1/22
That's ugly. So…..who benefits from this is the question.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:53a, 10/1/22
It looks like crap. DB ain't much better. Imagine both are distressed. If this is true, can we expect US banks will also suffer massively? In other words, how much investment does one of these banks have in the other banks?

Phil Mickelson may need new sponsors.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:54a, 10/1/22
I spotted this a few days ago but never mentioned it on here.

Do these banks get bailed out? You raked on Citi in '08. They gonna prop these banks up too?
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 1:14p, 10/1/22
AG
I was talking about the SP500.
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Chef Elko
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 1:22p, 10/1/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:


No idea if this is fluff/BS, but my guess is credit Suisse or Deutsche Bank. Will be major contagion if that happens.



I'm thinking CS. They began to wind down IB services and you've seen a lot of managers move to other banks. Not sure how their books look but seeing all the departures you would think it's a dumpster fire.
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 2:08p, 10/1/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
I spotted this a few days ago but never mentioned it on here.

Do these banks get bailed out? You raked on Citi in '08. They gonna prop these banks up too?


Yes, but.

There is less leverage to use now by central banks. Some of these could be nationalized.
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ProgN
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2:14p, 10/1/22
The announcer in the TCU beat down of OU just said:

Quote:
"TCU is running through Oklahoma faster than a stimulus check"
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to Chef Elko • 2:15p, 10/1/22
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AG
Credit Suisse = CS?
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RosecityAg
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3:18p, 10/1/22
AG
Long time follower of the thread - you guys are awesome.

About to grab a good amount (for me) of LABU & TQQQ in the near future. How long is "too long" when it comes to these leveraged products?
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BaylorSpineGuy
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3:43p, 10/1/22
NM.
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ProgN
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In reply to RosecityAg • 4:04p, 10/1/22
RosecityAg said:
Long time follower of the thread - you guys are awesome.

About to grab a good amount (for me) of LABU & TQQQ in the near future. How long is "too long" when it comes to these leveraged products?
About the end of October, after earnings suck, you might want to park a little in SOXL. The world will always need more and more semis.
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 4:04p, 10/1/22
ProgN said:
The announcer in the TCU beat down of OU just said:

Quote:
"TCU is running through Oklahoma faster than a stimulus check"

That's pure gold
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 4:05p, 10/1/22
ProgN said:
The announcer in the TCU beat down of OU just said:

Quote:
"TCU is running through Oklahoma faster than a stimulus check"


That's pure gold
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 4:06p, 10/1/22
I was disappointed that I didn't think of it.

Has hurricane Ian damaged you or your family?
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In reply to ProgN • 7:11p, 10/1/22
ProgN said:
I was disappointed that I didn't think of it.

Has hurricane Ian damaged you or your family?


Not at all and thanks for asking. Our facilities in the Destin area got zero drops of rain. Has been sunny and in the 70s all week. We were spared.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:18p, 10/1/22
FJ43 said:
ProgN said:
I was disappointed that I didn't think of it.

Has hurricane Ian damaged you or your family?


Not at all and thanks for asking. Our facilities in the Destin area got zero drops of rain. Has been sunny and in the 70s all week. We were spared.
That's good, but I thought about flooding near your home. I haven't followed the path but knew you were closer than me. I'm old, but I don't watch the Weather Channel yet,

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8:30p, 10/1/22
AG
Jimbo is the Credit Suisse of college coaches.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:42p, 10/1/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Jimbo is the Credit Suisse of college coaches.


Jimbo is the Cathie Wood..
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Triple_Bagger
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12:33p, 10/2/22
Thoughts on I Bonds? These are currently paying 9.62% interest

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 12:42p, 10/2/22
So does that rate lock in for 1 yr and then you have to withdraw or can you get that rate indefinitely at $10K/ yr per SSN?
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 1:00p, 10/2/22
AG
Many of us jumped into these in April
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Charismatic Megafauna
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1:40p, 10/2/22
AG
Probably some good entries in a lot of materials stonks this week. I will probably try clf again
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 2:41p, 10/2/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
So does that rate lock in for 1 yr and then you have to withdraw or can you get that rate indefinitely at $10K/ yr per SSN?
Rate is locked in for 6 months, then it you get the next rate based on current inflation.

The only portion you lock in for the life of the bond is the base rate, which appears to be tied to the fed interest rate. Current base rate is 0% and it was set back in May. I think the next bonds will have a non-zero base rate.

You can withdraw after 1yr but you will lose the previous 3 months of interest if you withdraw before 5 yrs. The bond is a 30yr bond.

Best case scenario is buy bonds when the base rate is high, then you hope you go through some periods of high inflation. With the base rate at 0%, you might have some years of 0% returns if inflation drops. This has happened before. The average return of the last 10 years is only 2.5% but we had very low inflation and low interest during that time.

You can buy $10k per calendar year online and another $5k per year through your tax filings. If the next bonds have as high of a return as I think they will (19%), I plan to buy $10k in November, and another $10k early next year plus $5k through my tax return. The bond is available for 6 months.
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6:30p, 10/2/22
AG
There's gonna be a bear market rally sooner or later, but I think in general this is a time to be patient and just let the market keep dipping.
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ProgN
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:37p, 10/2/22
I believe the DJIA fills the gap at 28,000 first. We're so close now, that could happen by lunchtime Tuesday.
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