Oh I get the model T. I don't get what he means though since he says he doesn't trust fib and calculates other numbers.
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Brian Earl Spilner said:
Oh I get the model T. I don't get what he means though since he says he doesn't trust fib and calculates other numbers.
I could be wrong, but most charting software autocalculates and draws the Fibonacci levels for you. He is saying he is more comfortable calculating the 50% level on his own. That's how I prefer to do it, at least.
Mornun!
US red
EU red
Asia mixed but mostly red
VIX over 27 early
Careful for traps if trading weeklies. More so 0DTEs. If you missed hedging or shorts before Friday just my 2 cents but sit on hands and wait for bounce.
My trading is currently fewer trades normal size and taking profits. Lottos are just that. Lottos. Small % of gains. I'm not looking for home runs although they can happen in volatility.
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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FJ43 said:
Mornun!
US red
EU red
Asia mixed but mostly red
VIX over 27 early
Careful for traps if trading weeklies. More so 0DTEs. If you missed hedging or shorts before Friday just my 2 cents but sit on hands and wait for bounce.
My trading is currently fewer trades normal size and taking profits. Lottos are just that. Lottos. Small % of gains. I'm not looking for home runs although they can happen in volatility.
Trade wisely!
Where's my gif that used to come with these?!
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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I've sold my $420 puts last week as they expired on the 31st and I was up over 100% so I took profit after going net free.
Am sitting on my hands. Maybe look into $390s but idk.
Am sitting on my hands. Maybe look into $390s but idk.
Polling the crowd…. In an expected bearish scenario? Would you rather trade vix calls or spy puts? I've dabbled in vix options and futures before, the options have some interesting quirks given the mean reverting nature of the vix.
Although I'd recommend against trading options unless you're very experienced and able to actively monitor it, I'd buy VIX puts into the initial downdraft at the open because I have a sneaky suspicion that we might get red to Green Day.moses1084ever said:
Polling the crowd…. In an expected bearish scenario? Would you rather trade vix calls or spy puts? I've dabbled in vix options and futures before, the options have some interesting quirks given the mean reverting nature of the vix.
*EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS FUTURES PLUNGE 20% TO 270 EUROS/MWH
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 29, 2022
I mentioned last week that LNG looked like it was set to reverse. This may be a good put/short candidate.
Thought it was interesting that AMPY made deltaone's feed this morning.
Pre Mkt recap pic.twitter.com/9Zcb5c5wex
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 29, 2022
Red Pear BCS Luke said:FJ43 said:
Mornun!
US red
EU red
Asia mixed but mostly red
VIX over 27 early
Careful for traps if trading weeklies. More so 0DTEs. If you missed hedging or shorts before Friday just my 2 cents but sit on hands and wait for bounce.
My trading is currently fewer trades normal size and taking profits. Lottos are just that. Lottos. Small % of gains. I'm not looking for home runs although they can happen in volatility.
Trade wisely!
Where's my gif that used to come with these?!
I've yet to figure out how to get a gif to post consistently from my cell while driving. I'm old.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
On Friday, #ES_F broke down a 3 week H&S pattern, starting a fresh sell leg. 4020-30 was 1st target and ES agrees basing in this zone all night
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) August 29, 2022
Plan today: No bounce here yet for hours, not ideal for bulls. Unless bulls can pop above 4030 (targets 4040, 4075), 3980-85 in play https://t.co/J2eszWgmJ1
The 3980 range is not coincidentally the 50 SMA area. I suspect we bounce at that area. Won't be able to trade today tho.
moses1084ever said:
Polling the crowd…. In an expected bearish scenario? Would you rather trade vix calls or spy puts? I've dabbled in vix options and futures before, the options have some interesting quirks given the mean reverting nature of the vix.
What Prog said.
Nows not the time to buy either. I trade both and use both. VIX calls usually further out past volatility trends buying towards lows. I bought VIX calls adding to when it was below 20. Will exit most all with trailing stop on balance with open. Those are over double.
SPY puts I trade same as calls. Level to level on weekly options and further out based on overall macro trends. I do use VIX movement when scalping SPY intraday.
Over simplification but my 2 cents. Different instruments and act differently.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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moses1084ever said:
Polling the crowd…. In an expected bearish scenario? Would you rather trade vix calls or spy puts? I've dabbled in vix options and futures before, the options have some interesting quirks given the mean reverting nature of the vix.
Keep in mind that Wednesday morning (I believe but haven't looked to confirm) is Vixperation, when this week's VIX calls will expire. With such a large downward move to close the week, I'd expect something green on Tuesday at least is likely to crush VIX call premiums. So for VIX calls I'd probably SOH and wait for a green day or a few green hours to see if you can buy at a better spot later today or tomorrow. Sometimes VIX call spreads can work when volatility jacks premium on all strikes.
Either way if you are getting in this morning on the short side of the market I'd be prepared for it to only be a quick scalp and be ready to sell quickly if it goes against me.
Just my thoughts - not investment advice lol.
I'm looking at 390s as well but I'm waiting to see the initial move. I agree with many who are warning of a push to green today. It wouldn't surprise me to see us back in the 408-414 box today at some point.
FJ43 said:Red Pear BCS Luke said:FJ43 said:
Mornun!
US red
EU red
Asia mixed but mostly red
VIX over 27 early
Careful for traps if trading weeklies. More so 0DTEs. If you missed hedging or shorts before Friday just my 2 cents but sit on hands and wait for bounce.
My trading is currently fewer trades normal size and taking profits. Lottos are just that. Lottos. Small % of gains. I'm not looking for home runs although they can happen in volatility.
Trade wisely!
Where's my gif that used to come with these?!
I've yet to figure out how to get a gif to post consistently from my cell while driving. I'm old.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Bob Knights Liver said:moses1084ever said:
Polling the crowd…. In an expected bearish scenario? Would you rather trade vix calls or spy puts? I've dabbled in vix options and futures before, the options have some interesting quirks given the mean reverting nature of the vix.
Keep in mind that Wednesday morning (I believe but haven't looked to confirm) is Vixperation, when this week's VIX calls will expire. With such a large downward move to close the week, I'd expect something green on Tuesday at least is likely to crush VIX call premiums. So for VIX calls I'd probably SOH and wait for a green day or a few green hours to see if you can buy at a better spot later today or tomorrow. Sometimes VIX call spreads can work when volatility jacks premium on all strikes.
Either way if you are getting in this morning on the short side of the market I'd be prepared for it to only be a quick scalp and be ready to sell quickly if it goes against me.
Just my thoughts - not investment advice lol.
Also piggy backing off this - End of Month usually brings rebalancing and reallocating from large portfolios.
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I considered inverting my AMZN put spreads by selling to close the upper leg, but then keeping the (short) $122 lower leg instead of buying to close it, and buying the $120 puts. I could do that with a multi-leg trade and collect another $0.30+ per contract in premium and end up with a (short) put credit spread that I'd close out if/when we bounce.
But I think I'm going to just let these close as they hit my sales targets.
But I think I'm going to just let these close as they hit my sales targets.
Everyone seems to think 390 is inevitable today, but as of this moment, that 4020 level is holding
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Hierarchy of stress:
- Index share traders
- e-mini
- Russell
- Nasdaq
- Crude
- Volatility
- Nat gas
- Forex
- Index share traders
- e-mini
- Russell
- Nasdaq
- Crude
- Volatility
- Nat gas
- Forex
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Sitting on hands for first 30 today.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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AMZN is well in the gap, below my support line of $130.50 back from the April gap, and below the 50-ema at $129.58. The market never moves in a straight line, but I think this gap to $122.84 finally gets filled.
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AMZN first move out of the gates is green. We tagged above 70 on the 1-min RSI.
bounced twice off of 4040 resistance already today, let's see what the reaction will be
I think we have a date with the gap at 380 on SPY.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
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Look at 5-min BB for SPX and QQQ and even big tech like AAPL and TSLA - all getting back into the lower end of the range. Now look at AMZN - sitting at the upper end of the range. I think this is positioning or premium killing before AMZN closes the gap, but it could be bulls defending it to help prop the rest of the market.
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We need a photoshop of that Animal House scene, but where bears are asking "Can we dance with your dates?"
at the moment we haven't lost 4000, so, not yet.SF2004 said:
I think we have a date with the gap at 380 on SPY.
Thoughts?
Harry wang aggressively buying puts.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
My first buy for QQQ triggered this morning. (Long term.) Went in at 304.50.
Just slowly rotating back into it since I sold all that to fund my TQQQ trading.
Just slowly rotating back into it since I sold all that to fund my TQQQ trading.
Premiums far too high to play options right now 0 DTE
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Makes me think it will be a premium eating day then. Could we really just trade sideways?
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
XOM busted $97. Set your cruise control to $100.
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