https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265254-amd-david-goliath

Give me your take on this, please.

See if futures hold +10 or better into opening. Won't mean much unless we can push past 2860

oldarmy1 said:

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See if futures hold +10 or better into opening. Won't mean much unless we can push past 2860

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That's a really great article about the lay of the land in the desktop CPU market. Unless Intel pulls a rabbit out of their hat, or AMD under delivers with the Ryzen 3000, Intel will surrender market share until about 2022 at least.

This happened in the early 2000s with the failed Pentium 3s, but Intel was able to use monopolistic agreements with computer manufacturers to keep their chips in 95% of systems. However, this is unlikely to happen again due to anti trust issues and the fact that the computer industry has been democratized into many smaller boutique companies that simply look to offer the best parts at the best price points.

That may scream buy long, but I'm not convinced in the long run that the desktop or laptop CPU markets will make a significant portion of CPU sales. As cloud computing increases and small portable devices become more ubiquitous the value of dominating the traditional computer space should decline. Unless AMD wants to compete in that crowded arena I don't think they make a good long term hold.

As for baked in value, I think his conclusion is bs. We didn't know until last week that Intel wouldn't have an answer to AMD until at best 2022. Even if the market already priced in the AMD success, it didn't price in their success without meaningful competition.

What's your thoughts on the technical analysis? I'll be honest with all of you, I'm a statistician, and I really view technical analysis as essentially augury. Just because I think it's nonsense doesn't mean it's not predictive though, especially if a significant amount of traders genuinely make decisions on how the charts look.

Honestly, I like the chart on it a lot. Combine that with what you've shared, I'll probably take a partial position in the July $30 calls tomorrow.

Is your enter price still 26, or are you just going to get the July 30$ calls at market value? I was thinking 32$ myself, but this whole China thing makes me nervous that we could have a December pull back for the summer.

$26-$27 doesn't matter much to me. I'm getting less concerned about the China trade bs as time goes by. China fears the fed cutting rates more than we are cheering the possibility. Who knows but the July $30's look like a nice opportunity to me. If the futures up 10 or more hold, I'll blow out of my SPY calls at the open and focus on an entry into AMD.

I bought July $30 early this morning when it hit its low. Only bought 5 contracts.

S&P futures up 16.

NVDA right at critical $154 resistance mark. Need to punch through that to see a significant momentum event.

DE calls in the money and should pop for a 100% plus roi

Futures press 2860 and fall back. Confirmation that analytics I use are working again. Yippee

At least until the next wrench is thrown in the monkey

oldarmy1 said:

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Futures press 2860 and fall back. Confirmation that analytics I use are working again. Yippee

At least until the next wrench is thrown in the monkey

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Does that mean we should look into buying some MONK $69 calls?

NVDA close above $157 would be a pure reversal rejection of the support break and send the stock higher. Is it time to climb the wall of worry?

Rice and Fries said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Futures press 2860 and fall back. Confirmation that analytics I use are working again. Yippee

At least until the next wrench is thrown in the monkey

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Does that mean we should look into buying some MONK $69 calls?

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I prefer the BurgerMeister MeisterBurger BMMB calls here.

Prognightmare said:

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265254-amd-david-goliath

Give me your take on this, please.

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I've called into the last couple of years conference calls. Last year they focused and exceeded their goals, Ryzen + ramp and improving product margins ( by near double digits!).

This year is the focus of 7nm products (Navi, Rome and Ryzen 2) and improve free cash flow. No doubt they'll solve this problem.

Thanks

So how long do we watch SPX until we get out of those DE Calls? Or would you recommend selling half right off the bat?

2860 1st attempt rejected


I sold the DE calls on that explosion open

Shundere said:

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So how long do we watch SPX until we get out of those DE Calls? Or would you recommend selling half right off the bat?

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Sold on that explosion open. Now its pulled back so its all on the SPX breaking and running above that 2860 mark. DE calls could end up at $4+ today but on weekly options I nearly always take the explosion open to exit with 100%.

2nd attempt on 2860 underway. Dang the technical are just spot on!!!

with oil trending up this past week, would be nice to see WLL follow suit!

CHK looking tasty at 2.30

Squeeeeeeeeeeze Aggies... Get that SOB over the top

Got out of DE at a 2.85 average

3rd attempt at 2860. Needs to break it here

As posted initially yesterday 2860 is key mark. TexAgs B&I forum knows things.

What is it about 2860?

Roku and sq off to the races

mrad85 said:

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What is it about 2860?

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It's where my formula predicted/projected key resistance for bulls/bears.

4th attempt underway

I took NVDA shares off the table and went to a call for limited risk/reward. Explode upward and the calls make 200% +. Fail and can limit loss to 50%.

I think we're about to do it. VIX holding at -1.10

CreakinDeacon said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Shundere said:

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So how long do we watch SPX until we get out of those DE Calls? Or would you recommend selling half right off the bat?

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Sold on that explosion open. Now its pulled back so its all on the SPX breaking and running above that 2860 mark. DE calls could end up at $4+ today but on weekly options I nearly always take the explosion open to exit with 100%.

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Had to take a call at 6AM here in Costa Rica, so didn't have time to set my orders this morning and missed the $3.15 high on the DE. Now set sell at $3.10, but watching the volume like a hawk. Might just sell 1/2.

Irish
(On dad's account because I did what I normally do and pissed in someone's cheerios last night)

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DE making it all the way back to near high intraday is good sign of strength.