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24,687,297 Views | 233387 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by Ranger222
snizzler22
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I asked that same question to a commodities trader yesterday and he said it's more correlated to RBOB Gasoline Futures. Take that and add tax should get pretty close to the price at the pump.
La Bamba
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Dan Scott said:

MSTR is under $200. On Friday when MSTR was around $300 I thought selling $200 puts expiring this a Friday for $2 would free money. WRONG!

Bitcoin $29K
I know Saylor is a mega bull but even he has to be sweating it a bit.
Nitro Power
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McInnis 03 said:

CPI number today will be better than expected, they're even changing the vehicle price number calc.

No way they let cpi sky today. I bet it is surprisingly low, like exceeds by 80-100 basis points


Juuusssstttt a bit outside
irish pete ag06
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It all hinges on AAPL, in my opinion.


The day AAPL tumbles below 150 and falls hard will be the day we get the limit down...
BrokeAssAggie
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Gap down, then rip our faces off at 9am?
Ragoo
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Bob Knights Liver said:

My guess is there some part gouging and some part real increase in costs. They'll blame it on supply chain issues for processing. I'm not sure I believe that. There is likely real effect from inflation on transportation and on other materials and labor costs to process. While that's real, I don't think it has nearly the magnitude that we're seeing in fuel prices. I'm not a downstream guy, so I don't know.
man I hear "supply chain issues" almost daily. I think it has just become the company line to drive prices up.

The bigger issue IMO is labor. No one wants to say it though.
I bleed maroon
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According to CNN, it's almost all good news on the inflation front:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/11/business/consumer-price-inflation-april/index.html

New York CNN Business


US inflation took a breather last month for the first time since August. Prices still increased, but at a slower pace than in previous months.
The Consumer Price Index was up 8.3% in the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly higher than economists had predicted. It was a decrease from the 8.5% recorded in March, which had been the highest level in more than 40 years.
Stripping out more volatile product categories like food and energy, the CPI stood at 6.2% over the same period.
For April alone, prices increased by 0.3%, adjusted for seasonal swings, less than the 1.2% jump recorded in March. Without food and energy prices, core inflation rose 0.6%, more than the 0.3% advance in the prior month.
Wednesday's data suggests that the inflation peak is behind us, just as economists, the Federal Reserve, the White House and the American people hoped. But there are still a lot of factors that will keep prices elevated over the summer.
The war in Ukraine has put pressure on energy and food prices. Meanwhile, renewed Covid-related lockdowns in China threaten to exacerbate the supply chain issues that the world has been struggling with over the past year. That means it's uncertain how much the pace of inflation can slow down until these things are resolved.
jefe95
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There's no such thing as gouging.

If someone pays it, that's market.
McInnis 03
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McInnis 03 said:

CPI number today will be better than expected, they're even changing the vehicle price number calc.

No way they let cpi sky today. I bet it is surprisingly low, like exceeds by 80-100 basis points
HA, YOU'RE DUMB TODAY, YOU WERE SMARTER YESTERDAY WHEN YOU TALKED ABOUT EXPENSIVE PUMPS.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
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I bleed maroon said:

According to CNN, it's almost all good news on the inflation front:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/11/business/consumer-price-inflation-april/index.html

New York CNN Business


US inflation took a breather last month for the first time since August. Prices still increased, but at a slower pace than in previous months.
The Consumer Price Index was up 8.3% in the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly higher than economists had predicted. It was a decrease from the 8.5% recorded in March, which had been the highest level in more than 40 years.
Stripping out more volatile product categories like food and energy, the CPI stood at 6.2% over the same period.
For April alone, prices increased by 0.3%, adjusted for seasonal swings, less than the 1.2% jump recorded in March. Without food and energy prices, core inflation rose 0.6%, more than the 0.3% advance in the prior month.
Wednesday's data suggests that the inflation peak is behind us, just as economists, the Federal Reserve, the White House and the American people hoped. But there are still a lot of factors that will keep prices elevated over the summer.
The war in Ukraine has put pressure on energy and food prices. Meanwhile, renewed Covid-related lockdowns in China threaten to exacerbate the supply chain issues that the world has been struggling with over the past year. That means it's uncertain how much the pace of inflation can slow down until these things are resolved.


Here's a quote from someone smarter than me:

"It's not at 0.2% decrease unless you're playing numbers games. Inflation MoM increased by 1.23%. The only reason YoY inflation wasn't as high as last month is because last year April came in up 1.6% MoM.
All Smoke & Mirrors. Inflation is up big month over month. I posted this before the numbers came out.
April YoY CPI is expected to come in at 8.1%. March was 8.5% YoY. The only reason this month is expected to come in lower YoY is simply because the increase in inflation from March to April this year is expected to be lower than the same period last year. Even so, an 8.1% increase YoY in April still represents quite a large unsustainable jump. Last years March to April jump was 1.6% leading to a CPI of 4.2%. The 8.1% estimate represents a YoY increase of 8.1% higher than prices were AFTER the 4.2% a year ago (That's roughly 12.5% price increases over a 24 month period). In order to hit the Feds target rate of inflation of 2% YoY, we should expect an average jump of 0.17 month to month. So, in order for inflation to be increasing at sustainable rates, we should look for 8.5%+0.17%-1.6%= roughly 7.07% (I say "roughly" because when we're talking about a rate of increase we should factor in the compounding nature of inflation) . Therefore the consensus of 8.1% actually represents a jump of 1.03% month to month higher than sustainable levels. What we want is inflation to be increasing at a rate lower on average than experienced in the trailing 12 months. Last months 8.5% increase in YoY inflation assumes an 0.71% increase on average month to month while this month is expected to be an increase of 1.03% month to month. So what I would like to see is the CPI coming in lower than 7.61% for April 2022, although current April consensus is 0.49% higher. So to get the true feel of how bad inflation is, look at the MoM numbers … not the YoY numbers. Now … I don't know how the hell analyst came up with that 8.1% consensus. I was expecting much lower given the 1.6% month to month jump last year. But understanding these numbers is important. We don't want to get lost in the assumption that YoY inflation coming in lower in the latter month than the previous represents a decline in the rate inflation is actually increasing month to month."
AgOutsideAustin
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Red Red Wine said:

"Here comes the red again!
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a sad emotion"

But, I did love me some Eurythmics back in the day.


But not more than UB 40 obviously……
Brewmaster
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Nitro Power said:

McInnis 03 said:

CPI number today will be better than expected, they're even changing the vehicle price number calc.

No way they let cpi sky today. I bet it is surprisingly low, like exceeds by 80-100 basis points


Juuusssstttt a bit outside
LOL
but watch, it won't even matter. First move is usually the fake. Market pulled back on CPI data (initial move), I'll take rally then squeeze into the afternoon for 500 Alex.

McInnis 03
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Nitro Power said:

McInnis 03 said:

CPI number today will be better than expected, they're even changing the vehicle price number calc.

No way they let cpi sky today. I bet it is surprisingly low, like exceeds by 80-100 basis points


Juuusssstttt a bit outside
I'm trying to help you! FadeMc is the most successful trading plan in the history of Wall Street.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

First move isn't always real move.

Maybe very profetic.

For anyone that's hurting - remember that the market will come back eventually. Don't let past poor decisions contribute to future poor decisions. Evaluate all options and if you don't have a better option, continuing to hold might be the best part forward. Don't double down on mistakes or revenge trade. Remember that you can sell portions of your holdings - if selling is the best option - you don't have to sell all of any particular stock.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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jefe95 said:

There's no such thing as gouging.

If someone pays it, that's market.


Fair enough. Gouging is probably the wrong word. I didn't intend it to have the highly negative connotation that you see in the media often.
Michael Cera Palin
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lol
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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TSLA 780P.
BrokeAssAggie
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If SPY can settle above $398 in the first 30 minutes I like our chances for a rebound today.
BrokeAssAggie
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Bob Knights Liver said:

TSLA 780P.
big green candle
irish pete ag06
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XOM

Thank you for getting me to trade this Farmer!
TecRecAg
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big green candle SPY 5m.
BrokeAssAggie
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rally ass about to show up early today.
texagbeliever
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I want you to know i did my part. I sold my XOM & MRO calls this morning on the dip. So naturally they are leading the charge through the moon. Gain is a gain i guess...
Michael Cera Palin
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XOM you beautiful *****
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I got stopped out but I'm back in TSLA 780P. I want to see if we hold here or if we bounce off the top of the 5-min BB and SPX rang from yesterday.
TecRecAg
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Have yourself a day MTTR.
$30,000 Millionaire
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well, there are easier ways to make your daily goal.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Red Red Wine
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I just really like red wine, but that stupid UB40 song was played incessantly during my years at A&M.

Red, red wiiiinnnnneee,
Goes to my head
Makes me forget that I
Still need her so

Her being the "market"! The market is a crazy mistress.....
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Is VIX not moving much the last few min or is my chart slow to update?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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We could bounce at SPX 4011 or at 3980.
Charismatic Megafauna
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TecRecAg said:

Have yourself a day MTTR.

Rdr yesterday? And/or was yesterday an rdr for spy?
TecRecAg
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I don't really follow the whole RDR thing. I just know MTTR beat earnings and getting a nice run. They were in stage 4/4 where you see a decline in price after a big run over the course of a few months. Just so happened that stage coincided with the general downturn in the market. I don't know that it's worth the $37/share it was once at.. but it's definitely on sale right now.
Tumble Weed
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irish pete ag06 said:

It all hinges on AAPL, in my opinion.


The day AAPL tumbles below 150 and falls hard will be the day we get the limit down...


Totally agree.

I see AAPL as the last stock that many people want to sell because it is a great company. There will be pain when it drops.

I say this as someone who cashed out on AAPL recently.

I expect 3 limit downs before the bottom.
Charismatic Megafauna
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La Bamba said:



Still having a hard time breaking 4020 with authority. You guys ready for the 380s?
BrokeAssAggie
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I think we push up some more today.
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