I agree, 20%. And, it's 20% off the DJIA Closing High. I posted that as a reply to SoupNazi a few days back.BoydCrowder13 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:This is the second time in 3 days you have posted, it's a bear market; however, that statement could be taken out of context as part of an explanation, just as above. Just for clarity, are you declaring we are in a bear market or expounding what it takes to be in a bear market from the replies above?SoupNazi2001 said:BoydCrowder13 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Ag CPA said:
For everyone sitting on cash, where is your current jump-in point? Lately I have been looking at S&P 4000 but I am starting to lean toward 3700-3800; things are moving too fast and could get sloppy next week with the Fed decision.
S&P 3400 to 3850
Pre Covid high on S&P was 3393. I think we will at least test that level.
A 30% pull back from highs?
It's a bear market. That's about the average drawdown in a bear market.
And technically a bear market is 20% down by definition. We have just been averaging 30% down due to the big ones (08, Dotcom, Black Monday).
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Last: 37 min ago by Brian Earl Spilner
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Come on man, don't beat on a person that can't even respond. Mazag is a good guy. I'm not an EW trader either but I find the different approaches to trading that people use interesting.aggiedaniel06 said:ProgN said:
IIRC, it was a post that was very critical about moderation. That's a no-no if you already have 1 foot in the doghouse.
Tbh, I'm with the mods on this one. Elliot wavers are ban worthy!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
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Okay. Got it. No bear market from my end. We just agree to disagree. No worries.SoupNazi2001 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:This is the second time in 3 days you have posted, it's a bear market; however, that statement could be taken out of context as part of an explanation, just as above. Just for clarity, are you declaring we are in a bear market or expounding what it takes to be in a bear market from the replies above?SoupNazi2001 said:BoydCrowder13 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Ag CPA said:
For everyone sitting on cash, where is your current jump-in point? Lately I have been looking at S&P 4000 but I am starting to lean toward 3700-3800; things are moving too fast and could get sloppy next week with the Fed decision.
S&P 3400 to 3850
Pre Covid high on S&P was 3393. I think we will at least test that level.
A 30% pull back from highs?
It's a bear market. That's about the average drawdown in a bear market.
I'm saying we are in a bear market in most markets already except the large cap averages which will play downside catch-up and be in one officially soon as well.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I don't know why you guys bother with F16.
You're insulting people that are less conservative than you, but more conservative than 95% of the population and you're insulting people who will not believe what you believe no matter what.
Nothing else need be said!
I made a trading mistake in the 50K account: I did a personal account trade there, large size, for profit, but it was an accident.
I need to reconcile it, but we were up $7K, and I think we've given about $5K back through draw downs.
I need to reconcile it, but we were up $7K, and I think we've given about $5K back through draw downs.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
The Dow is meaningless, S&P is what everyone watches for this.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I agree, 20%. And, it's 20% off the DJIA Closing High. I posted that as a reply to SoupNazi a few days back.BoydCrowder13 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:This is the second time in 3 days you have posted, it's a bear market; however, that statement could be taken out of context as part of an explanation, just as above. Just for clarity, are you declaring we are in a bear market or expounding what it takes to be in a bear market from the replies above?SoupNazi2001 said:BoydCrowder13 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Ag CPA said:
For everyone sitting on cash, where is your current jump-in point? Lately I have been looking at S&P 4000 but I am starting to lean toward 3700-3800; things are moving too fast and could get sloppy next week with the Fed decision.
S&P 3400 to 3850
Pre Covid high on S&P was 3393. I think we will at least test that level.
A 30% pull back from highs?
It's a bear market. That's about the average drawdown in a bear market.
And technically a bear market is 20% down by definition. We have just been averaging 30% down due to the big ones (08, Dotcom, Black Monday).
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,416
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And this changed when?Ag CPA said:The Dow is meaningless, S&P is what everyone watches for this.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I agree, 20%. And, it's 20% off the DJIA Closing High. I posted that as a reply to SoupNazi a few days back.BoydCrowder13 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:This is the second time in 3 days you have posted, it's a bear market; however, that statement could be taken out of context as part of an explanation, just as above. Just for clarity, are you declaring we are in a bear market or expounding what it takes to be in a bear market from the replies above?SoupNazi2001 said:BoydCrowder13 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Ag CPA said:
For everyone sitting on cash, where is your current jump-in point? Lately I have been looking at S&P 4000 but I am starting to lean toward 3700-3800; things are moving too fast and could get sloppy next week with the Fed decision.
S&P 3400 to 3850
Pre Covid high on S&P was 3393. I think we will at least test that level.
A 30% pull back from highs?
It's a bear market. That's about the average drawdown in a bear market.
And technically a bear market is 20% down by definition. We have just been averaging 30% down due to the big ones (08, Dotcom, Black Monday).
Back in the 1960s, Dow is just a fun historical reference to follow.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:And this changed when?Ag CPA said:The Dow is meaningless, S&P is what everyone watches for this.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I agree, 20%. And, it's 20% off the DJIA Closing High. I posted that as a reply to SoupNazi a few days back.BoydCrowder13 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:This is the second time in 3 days you have posted, it's a bear market; however, that statement could be taken out of context as part of an explanation, just as above. Just for clarity, are you declaring we are in a bear market or expounding what it takes to be in a bear market from the replies above?SoupNazi2001 said:BoydCrowder13 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Ag CPA said:
For everyone sitting on cash, where is your current jump-in point? Lately I have been looking at S&P 4000 but I am starting to lean toward 3700-3800; things are moving too fast and could get sloppy next week with the Fed decision.
S&P 3400 to 3850
Pre Covid high on S&P was 3393. I think we will at least test that level.
A 30% pull back from highs?
It's a bear market. That's about the average drawdown in a bear market.
And technically a bear market is 20% down by definition. We have just been averaging 30% down due to the big ones (08, Dotcom, Black Monday).
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,416
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We agree to disagree. It hasn't changed.Ag CPA said:Back in the 1960s, Dow is just a fun historical reference to follow.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:And this changed when?Ag CPA said:The Dow is meaningless, S&P is what everyone watches for this.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I agree, 20%. And, it's 20% off the DJIA Closing High. I posted that as a reply to SoupNazi a few days back.BoydCrowder13 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:This is the second time in 3 days you have posted, it's a bear market; however, that statement could be taken out of context as part of an explanation, just as above. Just for clarity, are you declaring we are in a bear market or expounding what it takes to be in a bear market from the replies above?SoupNazi2001 said:BoydCrowder13 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Ag CPA said:
For everyone sitting on cash, where is your current jump-in point? Lately I have been looking at S&P 4000 but I am starting to lean toward 3700-3800; things are moving too fast and could get sloppy next week with the Fed decision.
S&P 3400 to 3850
Pre Covid high on S&P was 3393. I think we will at least test that level.
A 30% pull back from highs?
It's a bear market. That's about the average drawdown in a bear market.
And technically a bear market is 20% down by definition. We have just been averaging 30% down due to the big ones (08, Dotcom, Black Monday).
Best way to handle F16 is to read it a few days late. Any commie that deserves a feather ruffling (resulting in an undeserved timeout) will be negated by the common courtesy towards not wanting to necro bump a thread from Page 4.
F16 and this thread make up for 95% of my forum experience. Its the only place Ive seen that is this far conservative. I tend to giggle far more oft than I rage. (After today, may need to mosey over there for a guffaw or two.)
Heavy amount of perma bans can literally destroy a forum quicker than an Elliott wave can turn into a Selliott waive. Saw it with an mma forum I enjoy equally as much as this one that went from thriving to diving in a few months time. Mostly political relate banishments, myself included. (Hey all I did was post some Chinese links to Hunter being a degenerate.)
Wish all these fine folk simply got a 30 day suspension, instead of sent to the Netherrealm. Truly a forum killer, that theres no recovery from when done in excess.
Pretty soon all we'll be left with is this Barnes fellow. Have a good weekend gents.
F16 and this thread make up for 95% of my forum experience. Its the only place Ive seen that is this far conservative. I tend to giggle far more oft than I rage. (After today, may need to mosey over there for a guffaw or two.)
Heavy amount of perma bans can literally destroy a forum quicker than an Elliott wave can turn into a Selliott waive. Saw it with an mma forum I enjoy equally as much as this one that went from thriving to diving in a few months time. Mostly political relate banishments, myself included. (Hey all I did was post some Chinese links to Hunter being a degenerate.)
Wish all these fine folk simply got a 30 day suspension, instead of sent to the Netherrealm. Truly a forum killer, that theres no recovery from when done in excess.
Pretty soon all we'll be left with is this Barnes fellow. Have a good weekend gents.
I have biz travel next week, so will not be as active. Not really a time to trade big anyway...
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I am going to post a couple of charts for you all to ponder over the weekend.
SPY: guess what we tested today - the February lows. we are a long way away from the mean at this point.
I'm looking for an overshoot and a retest of the 21 EMA.
SPY: guess what we tested today - the February lows. we are a long way away from the mean at this point.
I'm looking for an overshoot and a retest of the 21 EMA.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
SPX is approaching oversold territory. I think on an overshoot gap down, things are going to get interesting.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
SF2004 said:
This is absurd...
Surely we are getting close to a short term bottom.
I'm afraid we are still a ways away from the bottom. If we can't hold this level for a few days, we are going to the low 11Ks on the NQ.
No need to fret. It's not too late to make bank. It's pretty obvious what the coming week is about. Does Jerome "The Printer" Powell choose inflation or recession?
In fact it's the same question posed to every central bank in the world.
In fact it's the same question posed to every central bank in the world.
nasdaq can fall another 25% and still be at pre-COVID highs. they will tighten until then or slightly above IMO, then turn the printers back on. my concern is it could unwind much faster than they're anticipating.
aggiedaniel06 said:
No need to fret. It's not too late to make bank. It's pretty obvious what the coming week is about. Does Jerome "The Printer" Powell choose inflation or recession?
In fact it's the same question posed to every central bank in the world.
He open his mouth Monday or Tuesday?
I think it's Wednesday
Well I pulled the tarp off the Yugo today. Another day like this and I'll see if the old beater will crank.
Folks - nobody can tell you how to trade volatility like this, but I can tell you what I do:
- size smaller
- trade at key levels only
- tightly manage risk
- take profits early
- trade with the trend
I've posted some of my P&L here and you can see that I sometimes get stopped for small gain or loss. It's because I'm trading at key levels and if the level is lost, I'm out. The thing with these is that price will "vibrate" around these levels and you'll end up taking stops in profit. It's just part of the game and I'm fine with it.
Learning to trade with the trend was one of the hardest things for me to learn and it's not easy all the time. I traded part of 2020 against the trend, or rather what I thought was a retracement to short back for retesting the lows. I did it successfully but I could have made more money more easily if I traded with it. There are no brownie points for catching the exact bottom or top.
- size smaller
- trade at key levels only
- tightly manage risk
- take profits early
- trade with the trend
I've posted some of my P&L here and you can see that I sometimes get stopped for small gain or loss. It's because I'm trading at key levels and if the level is lost, I'm out. The thing with these is that price will "vibrate" around these levels and you'll end up taking stops in profit. It's just part of the game and I'm fine with it.
Learning to trade with the trend was one of the hardest things for me to learn and it's not easy all the time. I traded part of 2020 against the trend, or rather what I thought was a retracement to short back for retesting the lows. I did it successfully but I could have made more money more easily if I traded with it. There are no brownie points for catching the exact bottom or top.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
If you only have one thing it needs to be risk management. If your total risk is 0.5% of your account with a 20% stop, it's hard to get blown out.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
#StonkLord$30,000 Millionaire said:
Folks - nobody can tell you how to trade volatility like this, but I can tell you what I do:
- size smaller
- trade at key levels only
- tightly manage risk
- take profits early
- trade with the trend
I've posted some of my P&L here and you can see that I sometimes get stopped for small gain or loss. It's because I'm trading at key levels and if the level is lost, I'm out. The thing with these is that price will "vibrate" around these levels and you'll end up taking stops in profit. It's just part of the game and I'm fine with it.
Learning to trade with the trend was one of the hardest things for me to learn and it's not easy all the time. I traded part of 2020 against the trend, or rather what I thought was a retracement to short back for retesting the lows. I did it successfully but I could have made more money more easily if I traded with it. There are no brownie points for catching the exact bottom or top.
Not taking profits early in this market has bit me. I have a trade right now that I could have closed a few weeks ago at a decent profit... instead I stuck to the "50% max profit" tasty trade approach and I am about to probably have to roll for a loss.
I am a moran.
How'd all do this week?
Week of 5/16 I'll be playing in the sandbox with y'all. Can't wait. I'll find some setups but will probably focus on scalping SPY mostly.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Didn't do much this week (except watch my long term accounts get punished).
Are you still in those LUMN $12 calls? And if so, what are your thoughts?
Are you still in those LUMN $12 calls? And if so, what are your thoughts?
I am. They are right at my cut point at the close though. Today it lost a key level...along with most things. I'll see what next week brings given June expiry.AgEng06 said:
Didn't do much this week (except watch my long term accounts get punished).
Are you still in those LUMN $12 calls? And if so, what are your thoughts?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Not the best looking chart. Seems 400 is in the cards. Red EMA is the 200 and orange the 100.
SPY weekly
SPY weekly
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Willing to bet that gap in the 390s gets filled within a month or so.
FJ43 said:
How'd all do this week?
Week of 5/16 I'll be playing in the sandbox with y'all. Can't wait. I'll find some setups but will probably focus on scalping SPY mostly.
5/16 huh?
Will be interesting. Notice the volume profile and trend.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Willing to bet that gap in the 390s gets filled within a month or so.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Ccutamu said:The discord is pretty well dead other than the twitter feed. I think I saw somewhere (I think twitter bc I saw Irish tweeting with him) and I believe he mentioned mentioned he started his own discord channel. I asked Irish for the link but he didn't have it. Told me to DM Mazag on OAs discord channel and he never responded.YNWA_AG said:Ccutamu said:Where is Mazag? Haven't seen him lately.tlepoC said:
OA was worn down by Mazag and is on the Elliot Wave bandwagon. Kudos to Maz
He's in the discord I think
https://discord.gg/aJxvnWTe
Here you go bud
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