Been awhile since we saw a really good murder algo. THAT was the murder algo.

well folks, everyone lost money today.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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well folks, everyone lost money today.

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... except shockingly Nancy Pelosi.

Don't be surprised to see 4580 trade tomorrow.

folks, the activity today was driven by quarter end rebalancing.

For those in the 50K account, I was wrong, so far, on the GOOGL option, but it's a small risk.

SPY is at 453.2 AH.

I don't know if it will hold or not, but let's see. I think an open above 456 is plausible.

Remember that SPY chart I drew a few weeks back?

Well, I maintained it for you all. Look what we're testing right now...

8 EMA and the upper channel line.

"Levels not seen since Monday"

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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folks, the activity today was driven by quarter end rebalancing.

For those in the 50K account, I was wrong, so far, on the GOOGL option, but it's a small risk.

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5th most bullish week of the year is next week. RSI at 2022 lows!!? Let's go!

Quarter end fireworks for #ES_F with the final 30 minute drop into close. ~4565 was key support and put in a quick 20 point pop then fail.

As posted April 1st typically bullish and with 4hr RSI(5) now at 2022 lows ingredients here for rebound tomorrow. Bulls need to reclaim 4565 https://t.co/tSK1CUgkSH

— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) March 31, 2022

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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well folks, everyone lost money today.

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worst day of the year for me, trapped me both ways.

GME With a stock split.

Quick 50K update:

• ACB is right at $4 (strike price). Any strength tomorrow and these will expire worthless. I'm OK taking assignment as well
• CWH let's see what happens, but fair odds we keep shares and can continue selling covered calls against them. Remember this pays an 8% dividend
• DKNG - decent strength today all things considered. We probably get to keep shares
• BROS - stopped out. Aren't you glad we had a stop loss? That said, I do think this is attractive here, but I will probably sell a put tomorrow
• DRIP - waiting for oil pull back
• GOOGL - this may go for max loss, but I will look to get out on strength tomorrow. Ideally this opens above $1 and we can set a stop there. Truly bummed on this one. It had great R/S most of the day until it gave up the ghost in the final candles
• ESSC - still waiting
• JNPR - surprisingly good R/S. We want to hang onto this
• MARA - we are probably going to get assigned. The good news is our cost basis will be $28.5. We can work with that. Next week's 28.5C is trading at $1.50 right now.
• OSTK - round 2 on this one. If assigned, net basis would be $43.5. That's a great basis. I don't think we'll get assigned, though
• OXY - thinking we get assigned. Net basis after all premiums is around $55. Workable IMO
• PETZ - finally profitable. Keeping for now
• URA - good day on that. Still want $30
• QQQ - small gain today. We played that correctly.
• VGFC - 0.50 seems to be the new base, well above our entry. No reason not to keep

Net net, not the best week for this, but no reason to be alarmed.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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If SPX holds above 4590-4595 I'll probably get back in to the BAC calls. I may look to go out a week or so this time.

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BAC failed for me. Stops triggered. Meh....oh well. Just a trade.

TRIN has closed over 2, 17 times in the last 5 years, we ended next day green 13 of 17. That said, we could easily lose 4538 ES support and have another red day. Decent chance to bounce though.

Fade the Month End Has Worked...Treasuries Lower and Steeper...Equities Better

We said clearly yesterday to fade the month end moves...so far it has turned out to be correct... 10 years went from 2.34 at the Asian opening to a high yield of 2.44 by 3.55 am...it remains higher in yield.. The yield curve, which is a bad indicator at this point, has steepened out where 2/10 is now positive 2 and 5/30's were flat, but now inverted two... We think the new month and today's employment number, will lead the vigilantes to push for higher rates... 2.67 on 5 years, the high of this week, would be a stretch but not impossible... And we could get to 3% by the end of this quarter... 10 years have support at 2.52 and 2.61... But we see them closer to 2.75... Mortgage rates continue to ratchet up with the Bank Rate. Com approaching 5%... Almost 20% less people qualify for a mortgage of the average home price of 450,000.... And the amount of a mortgage monthly payment is up 30% over the last year, according to our DC Mortgage experts...

Equities... Are quiet with S+P up 20 points in a narrow range of the same, 20 points... We expect them to be higher...we still see a risk on window until the Fed meeting on May 4... As for Fed governors we see Evans speaking today, which will not mean much.. Williams tomorrow...but Brainard next week will speak on inflation... There will be no change in the global worry about inflation.. The HICP European numbers (CPI) were up 7.5% year over year this morning, well above the previous number of 5.8%...

Employment...we expect a good number... Jolts and Quit ratios showed strength in the employment space earlier this week... We would not be surprised for a strong number above 600,000... But there are outliers where our colleague Ian Shepherdson has a number of zero... Expectation is 490,000... We think just about any number, barring the zero number, will send yields higher... Which is what we said in the Ian Lyngren survey earlier in the week....

New issue corporates continue to come at a steady pace... IG spreads are hovering around 66 for the CDX and high yield 374... Both well within the range... 6 borrowers priced 12.75 billion of bonds yesterday. Order-books were 3.4 oversubscribed and new issue concessions were only 4 basis.. That makes week to date about 32 billion, well above the 20-25 expectation we had for the weeks business...

We just finished the still bearish flow imbalance that's framed the most dreadful quarter in Treasury modern history (BBG Treasury index down 6.22%, worst since 1973) we saw persistent asset manager selling, with a massive uptick this month with CFTC data showing the second largest jettison of FV (5 yrs) futures on record at -340,000 contracts MOM... Low participation and liquidity versus high volatility and t-costs, complicated by fast $ stop outs in forward steepeners... And a foreign buyers strike, which does not look like it will turn around in Japan just because it is a new fiscal year...

This fits our narrative that the bond vigilantes are back... And with no Fed to stop them, expect further demolition of the treasury market... Remember, while the Fed will allow run off, they will not be reinvesting in the treasury auctions... So in past times, where the Fed would rollover a maturing 7 year, they would put that money into the next 7 year auction... This will not be happening, hence,these are more buyers that the treasury has to find for their auctions... We think that is one way the Fed will be steepening the yield curve... As for today, in our employment pool, we have 597,000...

cmk10 said:

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Billy Baroo said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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cptthunder said:

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Pres dumb dumb, actually stammered the word graphite, let's go!

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WWR volume spike.

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Still a couple hours for it to finish red for the day.

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You are gonna end up probably being right...

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Here is the news driving WWR

Biden eyes Cold War-era defense law to boost mining sector

Folks, I am buying 300 shares of FAZ in the 50K account. Stop at $16