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FJ43
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Mornun!

Mixed markets around the horn....

US slightly red
EU mixed
Asia mixed
VIX about 25




Today I just want to see the open. Would love a flash down V into 439.10 or 437.25. Below prior low and we shall see. Over 446.98 probably takes us to 449.51 and 451.30.

Could be an inside day.

For me today, knock the rust off, get back in the saddle, scalp a little and manage current positions.



Trade wisely!

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

AgEng06
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AG
Good to see you're back in the saddle!
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Mornin FJ!
You guys excited to scalp with fj this week!? I am!!!
Thrax
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BA gonna fall this morning
Red Rover
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AG
Thrax said:

BA gonna fall this morning

I've been on that China Eastern flight from Kunming to Guangzhou a couple of times. Plane was only six years old, but wasn't a 737 MAX. Sad event. From a trading standpoint if the fault isn't BA's this might be a big dip and bounce.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Isn't it crazy, though? BA had a hanging man candle on daily chart Friday. And then this happens?!?

Sad event overall. And bizarre that this happens after a reversal candle on the daily.
austinAG90
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AG
18 Fed Speakers...Powell Up Today...Mini Curve Inversions...Russia Turns Nasty

The markets are in a wait and see mode... For now equities have a strong bid going into quarter end.. Overnight we saw the S+P bottom at 2 am when London opened and then gradually move higher... Since New York came in, it has now rallied to just above flat... The demand remains... The two major factors, which have been the same in the last 4 weeks, are the Fed and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Fed... 18 Fed speakers... Powell speaks twice, but the speech today seems more on topic today at noon... Economy and outlook... Powell's speech later in the week looks more technical... Both Waller and Bullard speak twice... And expect Liesman of CNBC or Bloomberg's Mike Mckee to have a non scheduled Fed interview... The Fed is on a mission... But the reality is that the market only believes them part way...we watched Larry Summers over the weekend on WSW, say the Fed is so far behind, even with their projections, that they will never catch inflation... According to him, Fed Funds has to be 4-5%... Good luck with that. It seems like those type of rates would bankrupt the economy or send the deficit soaring... Markets believe another 7 hikes this year to bring it to 8 for the year... 5/10 has inverted again... 3/10 are now inverted... 7 year is the peak of the curve out to 10 years.... 2/10 is 20 and 5/30 is under 25...

Rates... 2 years have minor support at 2%, where they are now... And 2.16 after that... 5 years have support at 2.21, about where they are right now... With 2 after that... 10 years have broken minor support of 2.17, and have support at 2.33 after that...

Russia/Ukraine...we feel for the Ukrainians, who have embarrassed the Russian Army... But Putin refuses to lose and has picked up bombings... Over the weekend we saw headlines that Russia used Hypersonic weapons to destroy buildings and displace people... Over 10 million are homeless... We see this morning that Russia has now bombed a large shopping center on the outskirts of Kyiv... And they still say they are focusing on military targets... Yea right... Meanwhile Turkish leaders say that a ceasefire deal is getting closer... Does not seem like that to us... Regime change would be a game changer, but not for now... Markets are back-burning Ukraine for now and focusing on the Fed

S+P and the Nasdaq posted their largest weekly gains since November 2020... Some pointed to Powell's certainty of no recession...Others think levels had reached attractive entry points... We saw some short covering from hedge funds. Last week saw the biggest short covering since June 2020. Morgan Stanley sees S+P 500 volatility in the 94th percentile...

Outlook... We expect markets to listen to all the Fed speeches this week... And adjust the curve... If others talk like Waller did on Friday... And Bullard posted on the ST Louis Fed site, rates will rise to our support levels...if others talk more dovishly, like Barkin did on Friday, then we will be more range-bound...we think the Fed hawks will win the speech battle... But we warned early in our career to watch what the Fed does and not listen to what they say... Powell could talk like his fellow Princeton graduate, Paul Volcker , but act like Arthur Burns, who was the ultimate dove...But for markets... WITH LARGE ASSET REALLOCATIONS COMING NEXT WEEK...250 BILLION OR MORE... AND SHORT COVERING...IT LOOKS TO US THAT MARKETS WILL GO INTO MAY ON THE STRONG SIDE... BUT SELL IN MAY AND COME BACK IN NOVEMBER ,AFTER THE MIDTERMS SEEMS LIKE THE RIGHT STRATEGY..as for rates, they look to go higher in yield....
FJ43
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SPY

This is what I am watching for first round scalp.

Yellow = Premarket low

Blue line = 50EMA on Daily.

Purple/pink = prior low.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

sts7049
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Isn't it crazy, though? BA had a hanging man candle on daily chart Friday. And then this happens?!?

Sad event overall. And bizarre that this happens after a reversal candle on the daily.
bizarre? no.

coincidence, sure, but obviously the two things have zero correlation with each other. stuff happens in life you can't predict.
$30,000 Millionaire
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50K account:

$ZIM: selling December 50C at $37 to lock in today's spike.

Let's see what happens with getting assigned....
2wealfth Man
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AG
CF and UAN gapping up at open. Rocket ships.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
50K account:

Selling MOS here at 66.5

Congrats all.
FTAG 2000
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

50K account:

$ZIM: selling December 50C at $37 to lock in today's spike.

Let's see what happens with getting assigned....
Did I miss a buy on ZIM? Is that covered or naked?
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I bought shares at $85 and I sold the Dec 50C. We are trying to get the $17 dividend without getting assigned.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
OXY working well also. Great day so far.
$30,000 Millionaire
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$URA - doing it!
FJ43
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Bought 4/19 VIX 35C at $1.25. I am hedging a little but will also treat as a trade.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

McInnis 03
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AG
lookign for NQ relief bounce here at 300
McInnis 03
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McInnis 03 said:

lookign for NQ relief bounce here at 300
Trim 315, stops to b/e
FTAG 2000
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AG
FJ43 said:

Bought 4/19 VIX 35C at $1.25. I am hedging a little but will also treat as a trade.
FJ in the saddle.

FTAG 2000
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I bought shares at $85 and I sold the Dec 50C. We are trying to get the $17 dividend without getting assigned.
Got it, thank you.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Nickel is gonna reverse hard when the freefall ends, right? Anybody have thoughts on how to play that?
McInnis 03
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McInnis 03 said:

McInnis 03 said:

lookign for NQ relief bounce here at 300
Trim 315, stops to b/e
Stopped on rest.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Philip J Fry said:









Interesting how Key and ASB have almost identical charts. I think any of those three on the watch list is repetitively easy money. Set a stop just below the ema120 line. Sell when it hits 15%


Thanks for continuing to post these. It's been an interesting follow. I liked the charts and followed you on these three plus bought a little OSTK, I've had a love/hate relationship with that one. Targeting 15% from my purchase on each. I used just below the 20-ema as the stop on OSTK.
BourbonAg
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AG
Converted my margin account to a cash account today at TDA and apparently it takes a day or two to switch and they ask you not to make trades while it is switching over. Just an FYI for anyone thinking of switching to a cash account in the future.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Looks like an initial rejection around 446.50 or so on SPY. Correlates to price around 2/16. Could base here before a breakout. A C&H type pattern. Will watch closely for a long above there. A number of major stocks have matching type patterns, namely MSFT, AAPL, NVDA. I'm sure there are others too.

Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Bought a couple crwd weeklies
cptthunder
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FJ, I think you talked everyone into buying $WWR again
gougler08
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AG
Anybody like SHOP down here or wait a bit longer?
FJ43
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cptthunder said:

FJ, I think you talked everyone into buying $WWR again
Trade it if new shares. Watch 1.88-.91ish range.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Spoony Love
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AG
With the volatility that we've seen lately, the 4/25 SPY 460C is sitting at .15. It's not hard to imagine it could cover that price gap this week in a two day rally but in the same breath, this thing could lose all steam.
FJ43
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Watching these levels still. Patience. Green line is now HOD


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BrokeAssAggie
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buying some SPY $441 puts. $441.80 is my next leg down.
clinto
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Looks like NVDA broke out last week, AMD lagging behind. Anyone long AMD here ?
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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