SoupNazi2001 said:

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Ukraine is just the latest excuse to sell. Overall market has been in a bear market since last February. S&P just playing catch up on the downside. Inflation running extremely hot and we are about to raise rates in a bear market with a war starting. When was the last time that happened if ever? Long way to go on the downside IMO.

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Yup. But downside is not as deep I don't think.

And watch. FED will now back off from raising rates. Market will rally to new highs and over 5000.

War Machine prints money.

Watch for China to move on Taiwan next.

1. The innocent people of Ukraine need the support of the world right now.
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Distant 2. Ultimately, this isn't going materially impact the actual operations, profits and losses of most stocks. There will be some short term pain on the long side as a result of this. I think everyone on this thread pretty much realized this was inevitable and hopefully adjusted their short term holdings accordingly. It seems like it from the posts.
3. The Fed and the actions of Brandon's administration are going to have far more economic ramifications on us than what is happening in Ukraine tonight.

Mas89 said:

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BayAg_14 said:

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This will be a short war.

https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/1496690015946297346?s=20&t=g6ZIuyXn4mZdRb-7tbawdg

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44 million in Ukraine. If a million fight the invading Russians, could be a long fought war. Who knows?

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depends on how Ukraine fights them and for how long. If they go urban warfare, this could drag on...although it will get quite ugly.
Ukraine military is no slouch and mostly b/c of Russia.

oh and Puck Futin!

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I think you're on to something. I noticed this when a couple subprime lenders SYF and ALLY (formerly GM financial) each had loads of insider selling last August/September.

Only two reasons to sell: price ain't going higher or forced to sell by some SEC/legal obligation.

I agree with your premise. Retail only finds out after the fact, but remember Lehman CEO and Countrywide execs were calling Buffett to have him buy them out 6-8 months before things went belly up.

I'm guessing COVID stimulus only exacerbated issues but infused major money into the markets for a couple years.

The irony now is that as people are finally able to get from under their masks and return to "normal life" only to find that markets are a mess and reckless inflation may not allow for a meaningful market growth.

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Aside from how to lose money buying too much ELOX and WWR, consumer auto finance is the one thing I'm reasonably well educated about to offer commentary on. So for some factual corrections: Ally is the legacy company of the former company known as GMAC. GM sold GMAC in roughly the 2006 - 2007 timeframe (exact year not really relevant) trying to raise cash and avoid bankruptcy. Ally is not what I would characterize as a subprime lender. They do have some nonprime in their portfolio but it is relatively limited. GM purchased Americredit (most definitely a subprime auto lender) in 2010. Since then GM has transformed Americredit beyond its subprime roots into a full spectrum captive for themselves that is known as GM Financial.

Beyond this, I would tell you consumer behavior is very different for mortgages and auto loans. And there's considerable difference in the valuations of the underlying assets in the subprime mortgage meltdown versus the auto lending now. Home values back then had their bubbles burst which affects the desire of the consumer to walk away from the asset and into the bank's lap. Autos are currently in the midst of being overvalued (in my opinion) and will likely see some moderation in the future. But the chip shortages will keep used car values elevated. So if auto lenders see defaults they'll not be taking the kinds of losses you might normally expect. And more generally speaking consumer attitudes towards the necessity of transportation to function and being more difficult to replace if they lose their vehicle to a repossession in today's market versus the willingness to walk away from a mortgage that was significantly underwater that could be more easily replaced by renting something in the mortgage meltdown timeframe…. Totally different setups.

All that said, I don't see anything remotely resembling what happened to mortgage lending back then occurring with auto lending now. That's not specific to any financial institution. I'm talking about the industry as a whole.

Well, SAVA came right back down to 38 like it does before a run. Probably throw something at it soon.

Russian market down -45%

Well here we are boys and girls. This could play out an infinite number of ways so don't try to be a hero and yolo guess. Even the best of the best get shredded during periods like this. Sure, some will get lucky and spike the football whilst doing the Ernest Givins Electric Slide on twitter for months on end, but it won't be you or me.

Looking at the weekly, moves like this are pretty common. 2008, 2010, 2011, 2018 all very similar setups over the coming weeks/months. Very different outcomes from those past years. 2008 we all know what happened (doomsday), 10 & 11 went sideways in a bear flag for a few weeks before trending back up, 2018 did a panic V and never looked back.

I had 4130 as a key next level down on ES S&P futures. We briefly lost that down to just above 4100 but have stagnated hovering around 4130 for several hours now. Could be the bottom, who knows. Next major approximate levels down I have are 4000, 3850 and 3600. Could see a rip back to 4250 and then down again. To me, 3850 makes the most sense over the next few weeks since it is a major level and is exactly 20% off highs but nothing is off the table at this point. It also coincides with a long term trend since the GFC only breached twice (Dec '18 and Covid).

59 South said:

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We all bearish now?

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I'm ready to buy.

59 South said:

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FJ43 said:

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59 South said:

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We all bearish now?

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I'm ready to buy.

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Wait just a little bit longer sir!

I should also clarify, I only check out futures at this time of the day because of where I live.

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I'm patient. Let price come to me. But trigger finger itchy.

lol. Y'all think this is over and it's time to buy?

Only way I trade during these events is using covered calls on 50-75% shares entered and 100% puts against all shares, paid for with the covered call premium. I get 50-25% unentangled share upside with little risk to even moderate gain even if stock craters.

Do the math and target earnings for higher premiums.

The dink and dunk with options period with most cash sidelined is entering the share phase. But I'll take 25-50% of total shares entered with advanced options put/call strategies for little to no risk.

Engine10 said:

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That's an (almost) cost less collar yes? We've been practicing with them and I think it makes a lot of sense to minimize risk.

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Yes. Even a small account can go guaranteed net gain using 300 shares with 2 covered calls and 3 puts.