sts7049 said:

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imagine if this were a ticker

𝐔𝐧𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥. pic.twitter.com/2kf85NgSHd

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 24, 2022

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I clearly see where Zack Morris and Atlas tweeted it out

I know some of yall don't care for my EW theory, but I really think the Nasdaq is about to front run all indexes and will be on a massive bull run starting Monday and ending around April at $18,100 followed by a 15-20% drop.

mazag08 said:

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I know some of yall don't care for my EW theory, but I really think the Nasdaq is about to front run all indexes and will be on a massive bull run starting Monday and ending around April at $18,100 followed by a 15-20% drop.

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Don't stop.

I bet many hate my schtick, we're still here.

McInnis 03 said:

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mazag08 said:

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I know some of yall don't care for my EW theory, but I really think the Nasdaq is about to front run all indexes and will be on a massive bull run starting Monday and ending around April at $18,100 followed by a 15-20% drop.

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Don't stop.

I bet many hate my schtick, we're still here.

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"We're"

mazag08 said:

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I know some of yall don't care for my EW theory, but I really think the Nasdaq is about to front run all indexes and will be on a massive bull run starting Monday and ending around April at $18,100 followed by a 15-20% drop.

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I like your EW posts and I'd urge against others discounting it. It's not my preferred method and that's why I haven't dove into the finer intricacies of EW theory. That being said, when you post something that goes against what I'm seeing, I do look deeper into what I'm seeing. That's the good and bad of technical analysis, you can find anything to justify the reason you make a decision. I like looking at things from different angles.

No man, keep doing what you do.

mazag08 said:

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I know some of yall don't care for my EW theory, but I really think the Nasdaq is about to front run all indexes and will be on a massive bull run starting Monday and ending around April at $18,100 followed by a 15-20% drop.

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To illustrate..

We've been tracking the super cycle that started with the bottoming in March 2020. This super cycle is likely the 5th (and last) wave of the current long term structure.

Without going into too much crazy technical EW stuff.. I want to reiterate what the most two common wave structures look like. These are measured using the fib extension tool and by starting at ground zero, which for Nasdaq futures (NQ) which I'm watching at the moment was March 23, 2020. Then you label the top of Wave 1, which for this (and most indexes) was September 2, 2020, and then labeling your third and final point at the bottom of Wave 2 which was October 30, 2020. What this does is it measures the length of Wave 1 and uses that as its base distance. A 100% move would mean 100% of the length of Wave 1. It then places the starting point of the extension tool at the bottom of Wave 2. So you're ultimately measuring how many Wave 1's the total structure eventually reaches starting from the bottom of the second wave.. before a major correction (after the 5th wave). So pay attention on these diagrams to the fib extension levels, because they are far and away the most common. If a wave extends one level past, you can expect all future waves to extend one level higher than expected.





And now look at my charting of NQ. Notice the fib levels and the notice the diagonal nature and the trend line I've drawn that seems to be the landing spot for all odd numbered waves and subwaves.



Where are we? We are in Wave 4 within the larger Wave (3) since March 2020. I know this because Wave 3 touched perfectly off the 100% extension of Wave (1) from Wave (2)'s bottom like in the first diagram above. Going forward, THE most common landing spot for a wave 4 (which we have been and are currently in), is a 38% retracement of the length of the preceding 3rd wave. The second most common is 50%. It just can't overlap in price with the top of Wave 1. You can see this retracement calc in the brighter red color on my chart. Friday dipped just below the 50% (and NDX actually touched almost directly off the 50%). Another sign of a bottom event is the current Wave 4 would be close in price level to the Wave (iv) of the smaller degree structure. You can see that on my chart.

And now you can see my target box overhead. That's the pivot zone. I wouldn't bank on my timing. That yellow line looks logical, but the Russell is proof that logic means nothing. We can easily enter a 9 month long darvish box wave that ultimately results exactly how you expect.. just way longer than you expected. But the landing spot of the 138% fib is exactly what I expect

I think this is my play for the week.

In this market, I'm looking for 15-20% plays. Not swinging for the fences anymore.

Dude just stop









I can only get so hard

Lots of people talking scared.

It's time to start nibbling quality in longer term holds.

This is the "damn I should have bought some back when it was" area I think.

Bloody open but I had to share this because I probably found it funnier than it really is.

If we go green today after the morning massacre, then that's a positive and probably means the bottom is close. We need the capitulation and then rebound.

reading this thread, feels like max pain is still to the downside rather than a relief bounce

Overnight the markets were very choppy with equity markets higher until 3.18 am, where they then swooned until 5.51 am... S+P futures dropped 65 points..and Nasdaq futures dropped just under 300 points... 10 year treasuries moved from 1.78 to 1.71... These are chunky moves and are part of the new volatility we have to deal with as the markets continue to build in an aggressive Fed... So why did the markets move in this 3 hour range?... Some say it was the State Department announcement of withdrawing US individuals from the Ukrainian embassy... We do not think that was it, as it came out 5 hours before the move... Could have been the Zoltan's piece about the Fed Balance sheet... But nonetheless markets are on edge and the FOMO is long gone... It is now more of capital preservation... Mike Wilson of MS is out with his "Fire and Ice", piece... We respect his ideas, but he has been negative for awhile and under-performed the last few years... Nonetheless, he does not think the worst of the risk off trade is over... Now to the weekly outlook.

We said towards the end of the year that we expected an equity correction in the first quarter... Originally we were more focused on the March time frame, but moved it up as the Fed hawkishness increased... From Fed Governors moving hawkish and Powell confirmation testimony clearly moving from employment fears to inflation panic, we moved it up... Now we have had corrections in the Nasdaq of 14%, and the Russell close to bear territory at 19%... And not to far in the S+P futures being over 9% and being well below the 200 day moving average..about 72% of stocks that trade in the Nasdaq are down at least 20% from, their recent highs... And 50% OF NASDAQ STOCKS ARE DOWN 40% OF MORE (WSJ). We are near the correction we were looking for.... While we are not dumb enough to call a bottom in a market that is moving as fast as this one... WE WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A RISK ON RALLY AFTER THE FED MEETING AS THE MARKET MAY BE BUILDING IN TOO HAWKISH OF A FED MOVE... Sure we understand inflation is absurdly high...but we do not see a Volcker regime to address it... So we are out there thinking they could be a big market surprise off the Fed meeting, starting around Thursday morning.

Fed... Goldman was out Sunday talking about more than 4 hikes this year.. Bloomberg Intelligence was out pushing the idea of a 50 basis point move in March... Some are calling for a hike this week... OUR BASE CASE IS AS FOLLOWS

We expect the Fed to accelerate tapering to end February 15... Talk a good game as to what they will do next... Probably not talk about Balance Sheet reduction in any great detail until after tapering is over and a rate hike is on the table for March...at the end of the day this is a dovish Fed with a Dovish Congress....The ECB has drawn a line in the sand about rate hikes this year... The Fed will reduce the balance sheet...Barron's had an article detailing what we talked about two weeks ago...what is the Balance sheet reduction versus rate hikes...We said about 500 billion per 25 basis...Barron's talks about 2 trillion being 100 basis points... Same thing... We think the Fed will focus on B/S reduction to the detriment of raising rates too quickly... While some have the Fed raising at every meeting this year, which is 8 meetings..take away this week and it is 7 meetings... We still think 4 rate rises and if we had to lean one way of the other, meaning 3 or 5, we lean to 3 with B/S runoff... While Zoltan's piece said the Fed will actually sell, we think they can achieve their objective by not reinvesting... Many at the Fed do not want to hold mortgages, so that run off of 50-100 billion a month is a good start... Will mortgage spreads blow out?.. Some of that has already happened.

Trading this week before Wednesday versus after Wednesday... Stocks to remain choppy with a risk off environment...margin calls are coming...worst is not over... Treasuries positioning is too short... But we are not near stop out levels yet... 10 years can easily blow through 1.70 to the 1.625 level...but we do not think we get to 1.50... 5 years can get to 1.43...but the Fed is raising rates and tightening accommodation... So this rally in treasuries will not last...CORPORATE SPREADS ARE STARTING LOOK UGLY...CDX HY is now above 336, which is well above the 200 day... At new one year highs, breaking early December...if this breaks further, on a chart basis we see 411 as the objective...

Wooooo boy, the activity in the last 5 minutes is harsh.......capitulate beeches!

(We're not there yet)