I've been accumulating T in the $22-$24 range and it's now my largest dividend play. Another great recommendation by you. Thanks!

Yes, Div should be cut and T management made that announcement early on, hence a 7 month downward price ride. The Market spoke and said they didn't like the deal. I'm thinking Div will end up around 6%, but it all depends if it is a Split Off or a Spin Off. Here's why,...

In a Spin Off, you have no choice. You will get shares in WBD (Warner Brothers Discovery) whether you like it or not . The downside is that the price of your T shares will go down by the value of WB that is being transferred out of T to WBD. So, if you have 10,000 shares of T prior to the Spin Off, you will still have 10,000 shares of T after the Spin Off and an additional number of shares, let's say 2,000 for the sake of argument, of WBD.

In a Split Off, you get to decide if you want any shares of WBD or simply keep the 10,000 shares of T that you have. If you decide to just keep all of your T, the price of your 10,000 shares of T will go up rather than down because the total share count of T will decrease by the number of shares leaving T to get the WBD shares. That makes the reduced dividend T will pay more attractive as it will be higher than it would have been in the Spin Off scenario. Thus, you might wind up with a 6% dividend given the lower T share count after the Split Off. Of course, you don't have to go whole hog on the Split Off, you can reduce your T share count to say 8,000 for example and tender the other 2,000 in the Split Off, or in any other proportion you might like.

There is no problem in Free Cash Flow and Earnings to cover the dividend at current $0.52 per share or lower.

As for debt, I don't see an issue here either. T will save a billion in debt service a year if the TW/D deal goes through. Remaining debt is manageable. I'd rather be loaded with debt going into a rising interest rate environment. Problem is, in this case, the debt is from previous mistakes versus growth. If T management decides to go on a spending spree again, that is a major and serious red flag. All T management has to do is absolutely nothing, collect a big salary for 3 to 5 years and this company grows like a monster. Seriously, if T management alters that plan and buys some new business, it's a mistake.

In the past couple of weeks, T share price was under $22.94 book value. T company treasury should have been buying those shares back hand over fist. I don't know if they did, but I hope they did and gets reported. There's 7.14 billion shares outstanding and reducing that number would have been prudent and a savings to T. Also, it would have added to shareholder value and turned some negative sentiment positive.

I'll stop rambling..

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Just hope Uncle Sam doesn't mandate maximum 55mph on the Interstates. (I love my 1985 Chevy Dooley 454 carbon footprint.)

Moving on,.....

Welp,....my dive into SPY at the close on Friday didn't pan out,...yet.

SAVA,...still at the woodshed..

ABBV,...still strong and looking good. I'm likely going to lose my shares due to CC's, but it has been a wild ride. If FJB kills the market tomorrow, maybe it provides an opportunity to make some changes on my Calls.

T,....largest holding in my dividend portfolio, looking good these last few days. No word out yet on how the TimeWarner/Discovery deal will be managed (Split Off or a Spin Off). Analysts over the last 3 days are giving T a target price of $30. I'd like to see a fast run to $25 and I'll likely CC all of it starting at July Strikes to further out. I believe T will reach $25 before the New Year.

Santa Rally - I believe in it.

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you might be able to roll ABBV to 135 or 140. It should consolidate here some more (so you might also escape this week without getting called out). I've seen price targets of 140 (the trader I followed into calls originally).

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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CNBC just interviewed some guy encouraging this a "buy the dip".

If you buy this dip, you're a dip. These guys trying to offload their bags.

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or a genius!

Or both...

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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CNBC just interviewed some guy encouraging this a "buy the dip".

If you buy this dip, you're a dip. These guys trying to offload their bags.

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yeah they appear to be selling every rip

Got it. I'm on it.

I'm looking for an entry point in NVDA to go long. Would you wait until 2022?

Looked at BRKB but didn't pull the trigger. Yet. Bought more shares of SAVA and those $70-$100 Jan2023 spreads that I sold when it was nearing $100 a couple months ago.

What's significant about Tuesday? The idiot and his Marxist dwarves know what they're going to say so he could have done it yesterday or this morning.

Love it when make a killing on a position and then re-enter at a lower price a few weeks later. You're playing SAVA very well.

I like BRKB as a defensive move. They're sitting on $150B and will likely make better decisions than me when they buy the dip.

Any ones in particular you're eyeing ?

I'm nibbling on NVDA down here.

QQQ and LUV for me

I'm heavy on LUV now. I'm eyeing TSLA too. Got a bit of MARA equity and some naked puts too. RELY is one I like and added to my portfolio too

Bought some SAVA as well in my Roth account.

mazag08 said:

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Did I miss the DPW name change to NILE?

Glad I dumped that worthless piece of ***** Whoever introduced it to this board should have to poop slap.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ault-global-holdings-plans-change-113000775.html

I don't recall who brought DPW to the board but I think it was a Technical Analysis play, not recommended as a longterm hold.

CRTX looks like it's primed for a rip. Thoughts?

Highly shorted, way below ATH after disappointing trial results, but still feasible. Could be a good lotto

austinAG90 said:

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Wild Risk Off Ride to Start the Week...Catalyst Manchin/Covid/Fed Rethink

So much for the Christmas Rally... We thought we might see a bounceback after last weeks tough equity moves... But the Manchin surprise back off, which we question the timing of, has led to a risk off move across the globe in many equity markets and economic sensitive commodities... S+P futures were down about 80 points at 4 am... And 10 year treasuries had rallied to the next resistance of 1.35.. But both reversed... S+P is now down 50 while 10 year treasuries have backed up to 1.39...

Covid cases continue to accelerate at a rapid pace, doubling every few days... We can see panic as long testing lines are through most of the US... In Europe we sense it is worse with many countries implementing lock down type restrictions... The Netherlands being one of the latest... Even Davos, the center of the top thinkers of the world, has just cancelled their January meetings... Whether one believes the fears or questions the severity, things are closing and that will affect economic numbers... Oil is off over 3% this am.

Rates... Rally is coming from the front end as the market is starting to reverse what the Fed said they do the next two years... The front end of the US curve, both 3/5's, are lower in yield by 3+ basis, while the long end of the curve is up marginally... 5/30, which got to 54 recently, is now back to 66... We think the flattening trade is dead for now and expect to see some more steepening... European rates are flat to lower.

The Fed... Traders spent the last few days reversing some of the Fed dot plots... The FOMC forecaste overnight rates jumping from zero to 1.60 and 2.10 by year end 2023 and 2024, respectively. Eurodollar futures, as of the close Friday, had priced in just 1.50 short term rates on both dates...Meaning they do not believe the Fed will be as aggressive as advertised... Governor Waller late Friday suggested the Fed should consider balance sheet reduction at the end of the first quarter next year, which would mitigate the amount of rate hikes... This is technically called sequencing, for those that have asked us..

Inflation... Still the biggest problem out there from the Fed's perspective... We read many views over the weekend... Some like Larry Summers and El-Arian do not think the Fed did enough... We guess they want to see rate rises sooner than March...Others think the Fed did too much and will not be raising rates nearly as much as they laid out... Our view is that while the word transitory has been retired, there are those at the Fed who still believe that inflation will reverse on its own... We do not agree with that view, but that is how the market is reacting...

Manchin and BBB.. While Joe Manchin walked back his support for BBB, we watched his body language... We think it is a negotiating play and some compromise will be done in January... As currently created, we think BBB tries to do too much and is not properly priced...no one believes programs will end after 3 years... Once the bill is properly priced and streamlined, it will pass...

We wanted to incorporate more of the weekend news, but the Manchin move on Sunday, along with the Goldman Sachs cutting their first quarter GDP forecast in half and the respective market reaction, has caused us to eliminate more of the end of the year thoughts... We will write another longer update mid morning... Suffice to say, with the Fed pivot, the removal of the BBB from economic calculations , and the fear that the Fed put is no longer,...expect to see another choppy risk off week... Our view , whether you believe the Fed outlook or not, is that they are still easing, at least until the end of March.. And the put is not dead, not for a long shot... But one has to be careful of the entry points...Nasdaq futures, at the low this morning, were 7.5% off its high from November 30... S+P futures hit down 4.5% from their 12/16 high

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Manchin is bluffing?!?! "Streamlining" the BBB and properly pricing it will lead to passage? So when the ACTUAL price is admitted as 5 trillion dollars, that will pass with Manchin and Sinnema and the purple state Senators.

great analysis there!!

You can sell Jan PLUG 25 puts for $1.50+ right now...would be a really nice entry point if called out

They make charging stations, correct?

BREwmaster said:

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reading that tomorrow, Brandon will announce "surrender to Covid" and try to scare us all indoors again. So tread lightly on longs all!

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let's see how many follow up questions Brandon will take from the media.

My guess is: Zero.

going out on a limb there!

I'm taking initial position in DKNG down here.

ProgN said:

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They make charging stations, correct?

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Hydrogen fuel cells for forklifts and working to branch to other industrial equipment