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21,986,309 Views | 224138 Replies | Last: 9 min ago by Maximus Johnson
59 South
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oldarmy1 said:

This represents a long term breakout for NIO. Expect extended trend upward. AND no one on here should have been fooled otherwise. Stair step up support as they tried their best to hide their intentions. Yeah, we are smarter than that old tactic.




OA, what are your thoughts on the NIO lockup period expiring 3/11? That seems to be the only headwind for it short/medium term. My original plan was to hold up until earnings and sell a chunk plus covered calls on another chunk. Then buy back after lockup selling pressure let up. This breakout has me rethinking so now I'm not so sure and may just hold for the double in the 13-14 range.
59 South
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And now it's coming up on 10 already... wow
IrishTxAggie
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I picked the wrong time to sell my calls...
tramaro1
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IrishTxAggie said:

I picked the wrong time to sell my calls...

Story of my life!
oldarmy1
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Anyone who followed on the April 15 naked $7 Puts they are up 100% (meaning decayed to half of sold price).

I'm leaving 100% of those on because $7 is below the last basing action, so even once this current trend move ends we'll be finding a new base higher.

In other words SCORE!
gougler08
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NFLX bounced right off that trend line again...should have a breakout move coming sometime soon
oldarmy1
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oldarmy1 said:

boyz05 said:

NIO will be on 60 minutes this Sunday. Could see a squeeze before the close
Big Options volume on March 15. $9 highest call with $7 largest volume Put. Big traders spread trades for reaction. 15 cent on the $9 might not be a bad trade if the broadcast is positive.


FYI...I just sold these at $1.20. Not a bad 15 cent investment.
UpstateAg
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My only regret is not buying more when it was at 6. That, and not selling higher strike price calls. Just need a slight pull back....
oldarmy1
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UpstateAg said:

My only regret is not buying more when it was at 6. That, and not selling higher strike price calls. Just need a slight pull back....
You're not gonna get it now.
UpstateAg
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Yeah. I sadly know. My EAs trading GBP/JPY are making up for it a little bit though.
E
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SUM & NIO breaking out, I just need HEAR to do something and that will be 3 for 3 on TexAgs suggestions so far for me. Thanks guys!
oldarmy1
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E said:

SUM & NIO breaking out, I just need HEAR to do something and that will be 3 for 3 on TexAgs suggestions so far for me. Thanks guys!
Who put us on HEAR....whoever that was what is your consensus on earnings? Chart shows another triangle pointing to a down day before it might find traction.
silvey77
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oldarmy1 said:

E said:

SUM & NIO breaking out, I just need HEAR to do something and that will be 3 for 3 on TexAgs suggestions so far for me. Thanks guys!
Who put us on HEAR....whoever that was what is your consensus on earnings? Chart shows another triangle pointing to a down day before it might find traction.

Go look at all the research on page 404. It is very long and very detailed. Then make your decision. Earnings likely to be announced next week with whispers saying tuesday after close
No man in the wrong can stand against a man in the right that keeps on a comin'
silvey77
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clifton06 said:

Current Share price $15.54 Market Cap $225M --- Expectation $35-$40 per share
Research and Synopsis on Turtle Beach
Up until January, I had never heard of Turtle Beach, and as a small time investor, my first visual of the company came when I had noticed that the gaming segment was going up and put about 100 shares into Logitech before their Q4 earnings report. It came out positive; Logitech went on CNN's Mad Money and I made about 10% before I sold it approximately 5-6 days after purchase. I wasn't really looking, but my news feed showed Turtle Beach because it was a similar company. I looked at it for 20 seconds, noticed the stock was relatively flat the past 2 months, when others were dropping, and dismissed it because I was looking for companies that had a recent precipitous drop. I did notice that the market cap was $225 million though, and moved on.

About a week after this, I was walking around the mall with my 10 year old daughter and I walked into a gaming store. As I looked around, I noticed headsets prominently displayed, and knowing it was a gaming accessory, I asked what headsets sell the most. The worker went into how he thinks Plantronics make the best headsets because they worked with NASA. (Definitely not investing in Plantronics) While there, a guy I know from church walked in (chick-fil-a worker on break) and said "You don't even play video games, what are you doing in her?" I replied, "You are right, I don't, but I am looking for companies to possibly invest in." He says, "If you are looking at gaming headsets, Turtle Beach is the best around and they have been for years." I say "Did you know their entire company is priced around $225 Million?" and he says "That is really low, I would have guessed at least double that."
I then make it a mission to find out as much about Turtle Beach as possible because as my friend said, "I don't play video games." I went asking around at a youth event at church to see what gaming headsets they use (to about 25 youth). I got 5 Turtle Beach, 2 that had Razer (I think) but want Turtle Beach, 1 that had Astro (Logitech brand), and 15-20 that either didn't play video games or had no headset at all.
Now I am really curious, I go into Target to talk to electronics people and asked some dude about headset sales. He says, "I can actually show you data on my scanner." My eyes lit up! Real-time-data. He walks over and scans an item and I notice that Turtle Beach had sold $70k worth of this one headset (stealth 700x) on week-to-date. This is around the same time that APEX legends had launched, but no numbers were out yet.

I buy 500 shares.

On 2/13 (Wednesday) I go back to Target and get someone to help me with a scanner. I have him give me the week to date sales totals of every single Turtle Beach product, the result, week-to date $300k+.

I buy another 1000 shares.

I hear about APEX Legends getting huge numbers so I go back on 2/16 (Saturday) and get a new week-to-date number, $517K in sales.

Bought another 1200 shares.

I go in on Monday 2/18 and the week had reset on Saturday night or Sunday, so now I am thinking the $517k may not have included a Saturday. 2/18 number is $132K (Sunday sales, I think). I go in on 2/19 ($214K). I think this is Sunday and Monday sales, but definitely $82k for one day. I also am able to see the literal markup % of between 30% - 40% per product. I go in again on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday but am unable to access the numbers as the stockers and electronics people who have been helping me are now getting error messages when they try to access the data

I then go hunting for electronics sales info and find a chart from 2017 that shows the top 10 retailers for electronics.

#10 is Target.

Bought another 1250 shares.

I then went into a gamestop to ask questions, and heard at this store they were selling about $800-$1000 worth of Turtle Beach per week. I asked how many Gamestops there are in the USA. They said over 4,000 and we are one of the smallest stores in the area.
I then start calling Gamestops from all over the country

I call Philly, Boston, Alexandria VA, Alexandria LA, Lincoln, Rockford, Anaheim, San Jose, Oakland, Portland, Minneapolis, Greensboro, Greensville, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Atlanta, and many more that I cannot remember. This is what I gathered. The stores vary greatly in Turtle Beach sales. Some are around $150 per week, some are at almost $2,000. Over half said it was their largest mover for headsets. The average I believe is around $600-$800 per store. Their markup is also higher than Target with selling price marked up around 40%-50% over what they paid.
I also went into Best Buy, Walmart, and looked at Amazon and how recently people were rating the different versions of the headsets. Are they buying now??

The answer. YES
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silvey77
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clifton06 said:

Turtle Beach Data and background
4/24/15 Turtle Beach issued a $5.0M subordinated note(debt) to SG VTB Holdings at 10% for year 1 and 20% in the years following
SG VTB Holdings also had/has a large stake in the company 2.5M shares now down to 750K shares
In FY 15 and FY 16 impairment losses were taken on its hypersound business.
FY15
$50m in goodwill impairment
$2m intangible asset impairment

FY16
$31M in goodwill impairment
$38M in intangible assets impairment
In FY15/16 this $115M combined impairment was exacerbated by $27M in operating loss between the two years.
In FY17 after negative NI for the first three quarters the gaming segment begins to take off and Turtle Beach has a $1.16 EPS for Q42017
This news was not enough to make the company comfortable compliance wise with NASDAQ and needing to hold a $1 share price and knowing that Sales were increasing, the company issued a 1 to 4 reverse stock split in April of 2018. Shares outstanding 56M to 14M.
After this the FY18 Q1 results came in and beat guidance with a $0.16 per share EPS.
In July the company hit its peak share price since 2014 at $32 per share.
Q2 18 it beat estimates again by producing $.40 eps.
Q3 18 it beat estimates again $.91 eps.
During Q3 stock price falls that continues to the $15-$17 per share we see now.
In Q4 the subordinated note and other debt was eliminated by Cash flow reducing the interest burden by around $1.5 per annum.
There was also a renegotiation of the revolving credit with BofA that allowed the company to buy out all preferred shares that attributed to much of their short term debt. Revolver draw can be up to $80M of which $10M can be used for stock buyback.
Q4 18 it smashed consensus and guidance was raised three times to $1.31 per share.
FY18 annual sales $290M, NI $45M, EPS $2.90 per share.

Analysts FY19 expectations have Turtle Beach returning $.09 for Q1 and $1.63 for the year.
This poor guidance and other factors has caused the stock price to be valued between $15-$17 since November.
Other factors
SG VTB has unloaded over 1.6 million of their 2.5 million shares into the market (usually at $17+ per share) that has stopped rallies and caused the stock to yo-yo as they have always sold around 100k shares at a time and have unloaded as much as 250k shares in a week.
Analysts have not changed guidance for FY19 even after gaming data is showing growth.
Expectations for FY19 is $.09 for Q1 and $1.63 for the year.
Misinterpreted NPD data showing gaming accessories are down 10% YOY for Jan19.
NPD Jan18 was a 35 day cycle NPD Jan 19 was a 28 day cycle.
10% decline when extrapolated out over 5 weeks results in a 12% increase from last year.


Why this does not matter in the long term!!!
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silvey77
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clifton06 said:

Math: All since Apex Legends release
Verified:
Target (verified) may or may not include Saturday, I am assuming it is included to be conservative:
$517,000 per week $380K after markup $380 x 1.35 = 513 (close enough)
$380K per week to Turtle Beach
Researched
Gamestop $600 per store (low range, it may be as high as 800) = about $400 to Turtle Beach because of markup. GameStop has over 4,000 stores in the U.S..
$400 X 4,000 = 1,600,000 per week

Estimated
Wal-Mart sells 4.5 x the number of electronics each year than Target, which makes sense because they have over 4x the number of stores.
Conservative Estimate $1.5M per week to Turtle Beach
Amazon has more electronics sales than Wal-Mart and most people playing online gaming are also shopping on-line, but Amazon also has way more products to offer including headsets.
Conservative Estimate $1.0M per week to Turtle Beach
Best Buy is also a major player in this and have almost as many electronics sales as Wal-Mart, but also offer computers and high end equipment that Walmart doesn't.
Conservative Estimate $400K per week to Turtle Beach
Total estimate for target, gamestop, Walmart, amazon, and best buy
$380 + 1600 + 1500+1000 + 400 = $4,880,000 per week for the time between 2/09 2/20

In FY17 roughly 28% of all revenue was international.
$4,880,000 x .28 = 1,365,000
1,365,000 + 4,880,000 = 6,245,000 per week in February 2019 excluding smaller retailers and turtlebeach.com.

Run rate that includes no Christmas season at all, but from February which is one of the slowest retail times of the year
$6.245M x 52 = $325M add in Christmas 4Q bump of $50M and that is my expectation $375M- $400M in revenue for FY19.

FY18 had eps of $2.90 on less than $300M revenue in FY18.

Debt interest and liabilities have been reduced. I am expecting $3.50-$4.00 EPS for the year and $.60 -$.75 for Q1, blowing away analysts expectation $1.63 for the year and $.09 for Q1.
Analysts Q1 Rev expectation is $36M - My expectation is between $55M - $70M
The company should hit close to $40 per share by summer if these numbers continue.
Today's price is $15.70 per share.
Added shares.

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oldarmy1
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Appreciate it. The options were/are an earnings play so I'm not really caring much about the current malaise.
oldarmy1
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NIO symbol change?



Dobre casy
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While there, a guy I know from church walked in (chick-fil-a worker on break) and said "You don't even play video games, what are you doing in her?" I replied, "You are right, I don't, but I am looking for companies to possibly invest in." He says, "If you are looking at gaming headsets, Turtle Beach is the best around and they have been for years." I say "Did you know their entire company is priced around $225 Million?" and he says "That is really low, I would have guessed at least double that."

Well if a chick-fil a worker values it at least $450M, I'm in!! Just kidding, but I got a good chuckle out of that anecdote.
CT-11
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Bought some SOLO. It is the Canadian version of TSLA / NIO. Looks like it is trying to bottom above that gap.
oldarmy1
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Taking a $10 covered call position on NIO for 30% of holdings. That would give $9+ pullback coverage.
HomeFinderCody
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oldarmy1,

Are you still holding TRNX or did you get out? I bought MNGA at $2.95 right before the free fall. I know there seemed to be some knowledge and you mentioned you could see $6 in next year. Wondering if you still feel the same.
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Aggie_2463
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HomeFinderCody said:

oldarmy1,

Are you still holding TRNX or did you get out? I bought MNGA at $2.95 right before the free fall. I know there seemed to be some knowledge and you mentioned you could see $6 in next year. Wondering if you still feel the same.
Lol yeah that stock had me 0/1 on Texags investing after I found this thread. I bought at $2.75 then luckily sold at $2.30 before the drop to $0.90

Made a little money off TWTR, AKS, but need HEAR to bring me back to redemption from that MNGA flop!
IrishTxAggie
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Buckle up Elon...
https://instagr.am/p/BuWse7Gj3vw
oldarmy1
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HomeFinderCody said:

oldarmy1,

Are you still holding TRNX or did you get out? I bought MNGA at $2.95 right before the free fall. I know there seemed to be some knowledge and you mentioned you could see $6 in next year. Wondering if you still feel the same.
Micro caps are very risky. The product and technology appear to be sound but its taking them too long to transform into production. They keep acquiring entities that add equity value but still have to break through the early adopter wall.

I own a bunch of shares and tend to be very patient on micro-caps. That said, I was not happy that the CEO stated they had enough forward flow capital not to need any more offerings before the reverse split - only to almost within a week announce yet another round of private equity offer.

So now I don't trust him but have this net free holding. We'll see.

oldarmy1
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13 straight minutes of S&P moves higher pressing 2800.
oldarmy1
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That yellow chart pattern I showed you last week - it's all over the place around this 2800 level waiting to see if trend breaks out to continue or if this is the end of the run short term.
Brian Earl Spilner
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The market is Gandalf. Came back stronger and better than ever.

11% YTD is ridiculous.
Wiggletrace
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oldarmy1 said:

Taking a $10 covered call position on NIO for 30% of holdings. That would give $9+ pullback coverage.
I am curious in a full scale strategy on NIO.

I was lucky enough to get in on the $9 March Calls at 0.15 and sold those at $1.5 each.

I also bought $11 March calls on the cheap (i am up 212%) when it became apparent the stock was trying to breakout and the $9 looked to be in the money soon.

After seeing the movement, I went for $12 April Calls (up 160% since purchase).


How should I play the two remaining positions? I am new to option trading and just looking at some strategies to use going forward.


Thanks in advance, and I owe all of this growth to OA who posted about the $9 Calls being an interesting idea.
CheladaAg
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Agree with OA on this. Bad look on their management to catch the common investor off guard with the recent reverse split, especially with the positive momentum the stock was riding before the offering. Now with all of these recent announcements of acquisitions they are not getting the positive reactions in stock price as they were before the recent sell off. I'm a bagholder too and hope things turn around quickly and it better start with their Q1 earnings and guidance.

Below the CEO has put out some comments on the recent actions of the company and explain why it's the optimal strategy. This was much needed for transparency and give everyone some foresight.

TAMPA, Fla., Feb. 26, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Taronis Technologies, Inc. ("Taronis" or "the Company") (NASDAQ: TRNX), a leading clean technology company in the renewable resources and environmental conservation industry, today announced that the Company has completed the acquisition of one of the largest independently owned industrial gas distributors in Los Angeles, CA. The acquired company generates approximately $4.5 million in annual sales, and has five retail locations across the Los Angeles metro market. The acquired company also sells industrial gases and welding supply products into the Mexican markets in Baja California and Sonora, through a relationship with one of the largest independent industrial gas operators in the region. The transaction was structured as an asset purchase, with a cash purchase price of $2.5 million.

This transaction effectively completes the initial phase and business objectives of the Company's acquisition program initiated in early 2017. These objectives were originally as follows:
  • Establish a top five independent industrial gas business in the two largest industrial gas markets in the United States
  • Generate sufficient customer interest to support new Taronis production facilities in East Texas, Northern California and Southern California
  • Leverage our proprietary, patented technology to grow our market position to at least $100 million in approximately five years
  • Establish a clear operational vision supporting the ability to further grow each market to at least $100 million within approximately ten years, and selectively expand the regional footprint to support a combined $250 million US industrial gas business
  • Increase the Company's revenue base to a level that creates a clear and imminent path to cash flow positive operations
  • Expand the Company's access to capital, particularly the bank debt markets, to effectively leverage our balance sheet and enhance the potential return on equity for shareholders
  • Leverage that platform of financial scale and stability to fund international expansion, to fund further research and development for renewable fuel products, and to launch a scalable water decontamination business
"This acquisition is the final milestone in first phase of our initial business plan set forth in early 2017," commented Scott Mahoney, Chief Executive Officer of Taronis Technologies. "Two years ago, our Board established a series of business objectives. This plan required making a series of carefully selected acquisitions in California and Texas that would enable our Company to become a top five independent competitor in the most attractive markets in the US today for industrial gases. With this transaction, we have completed that critical goal."
Mr. Mahoney continued, "After completing nine acquisitions in the past thirteen months, we have increased our revenue run rate by approximately 800%, and believe that we can now reduce our acquisition rate. Our goal was to quickly reach a scale that could sustainably fund our research and development efforts, our corporate overhead, and create a largely self-funded business model. We chose to take this path because we felt it would be a much more cost effective and efficient method of penetrating extremely competitive markets as compared to a much slower, more costly path through organic expansion. And as a result, we accomplished in a little over one year what could have taken more than twenty years to do organically."
Mr. Mahoney concluded, "We are now able to shift much of our operational focus to the deployment of our metal cutting fuel production capabilities across Texas and California. Our goal is to convert all of our traditional metal cutting fuel clients to our patented MagneGas metal cutting fuel product. We produce the only renewable metal cutting fuel in the world, and believe it is a vastly superior product. We believe in our cleaner, safer, smarter solution, and we intend to aggressively demonstrate these benefits to our clients and the broader market in 2019 and beyond."
About Taronis Technologies, Inc.
Taronis Technologies, Inc. (TRNX) owns a patented plasma arc technology that enables two primary end use applications for fuel generation and water decontamination.
The Company's fuel technology enables a wide use of hydrocarbon feedstocks to be readily converted to fossil fuel substitutes. The Company is developing a wide range of end market uses for these fuels, including replacement products for propane, compressed natural gas and liquid natural gas. The Company currently markets a proprietary metal cutting fuel that is highly competitive with acetylene. The Company distributes its proprietary metal cutting fuel through Independent Distributors in the U.S and through its wholly owned distributors: ESSI, Green Arc Supply, Paris Oxygen, Latex Welding Supplies, Tyler Welders Supply, United Welding Supplies, Trico Welding Supply and Complete Welding of San Diego. The Company operates 17 locations across California, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida.
The Company's technology can also be implemented for the decontamination of waste water, including sterilizing water, eradicating all pathogens. The technology is being tested to determine if it can completely eliminate pharmaceutical contaminants such as antibiotics, hormones and other soluble drugs suspended in contaminated water. Lastly, the technology process is capable of reducing or eliminating other contaminants, such as harmful metals, as well as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium levels that trigger toxic algae blooms. The technology has prospective commercial applications in the agricultural, pharmaceutical, and municipal waste markets. For more information on Taronis, please visit the Company's website at http://www.TaronisTech.com.
tramaro1
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oldarmy1 said:

Time for us to take GILD for another ride. Bought weekly GILD $66

OA1, what is your stop loss on this one? I have faith in you but just curious. I bought at $.40 and now it's under $.30.
oldarmy1
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tramaro1 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Time for us to take GILD for another ride. Bought weekly GILD $66

OA1, what is your stop loss on this one? I have faith in you but just curious. I bought at $.40 and now it's under $.30.
Holding into the opening tomorrow. On weeklies under 50 cents I usually have a stop loss at 50%, so 20 cents in your case.
tramaro1
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Thanks
oldarmy1
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tramaro1 said:

Thanks
Someone sent up the bat signal

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