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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to FishrCoAg • 7:36p, 6/6/21
AG
FishrCoAg said:
If AMC is at 36 on expiration day you lose 12 on the stock, offset by the call premium. You also lose the 4 you spent on the put. Assuming you close the trade.


So your only true risk is the position tanks right? Seems like you can do this 4 times a month and be better free shares by the end of June assuming the price doesn't completely collapse right?
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 7:43p, 6/6/21
If you buy puts and the price collapses you are still protected by the puts you bought. Max loss is $4/share at a share price of $36. Anything less than that is the same $4/share loss, or 10% net loss, right?
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Ragoo
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 8:13p, 6/6/21
AG
Aggiesincebirth said:
FishrCoAg said:
If AMC is at 36 on expiration day you lose 12 on the stock, offset by the call premium. You also lose the 4 you spent on the put. Assuming you close the trade.


So your only true risk is the position tanks right? Seems like you can do this 4 times a month and be better free shares by the end of June assuming the price doesn't completely collapse right?
no, your risk is the $4 between $40 and $36.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to Ragoo • 8:40p, 6/6/21
AG
Ragoo said:
Aggiesincebirth said:
FishrCoAg said:
If AMC is at 36 on expiration day you lose 12 on the stock, offset by the call premium. You also lose the 4 you spent on the put. Assuming you close the trade.


So your only true risk is the position tanks right? Seems like you can do this 4 times a month and be better free shares by the end of June assuming the price doesn't completely collapse right?
no, your risk is the $4 between $40 and $36.


Ok so if the stock went to $4 a share I would be at break even correct? Seems like if the shares stay in the $40 range and the premium stays high, it's free money doesn't it? My break even per share should be $4?
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Ragoo
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 8:43p, 6/6/21
AG
If you buy a pit you are buying the right to sell at a certain price price if the stock trades below. Or you sell and collect the premium. Either way your max risk is the delta between your 48-12+4 and the $36 pit strike.

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slacker00
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 9:06p, 6/6/21
AG
$40 is your breakeven and your max loss occurs at $36 (loss of $4). Any price lower than $36, you still lose $4.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to slacker00 • 9:35p, 6/6/21
AG
slacker00 said:
$40 is your breakeven and your max loss occurs at $36 (loss of $4). Any price lower than $36, you still lose $4.


That's what I was thinking but if I own the shares then wouldn't I just be making my cost basis $40 instead of $48? So essentially at the end of the week the sold calls expire for max gain the outs expire. I make $8 on the options and I still own the shares at a $40 basis even though the shares are $36 so I have a $4 loss on paper then I do the same thing again next week and keep reducing my basis. The biggest risk should be if the price completely craters right?

I really appreciate the responses that I am getting. Seems like this stock you could make a ton of money in premium and could go net free fairly quick selling at the money calls.
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Thundergon
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10:25p, 6/6/21
Haven't reviewed anything but here are some plays I saw on Twitter others are watching.

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slacker00
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 11:40p, 6/6/21
AG
So after taking your $4 "paper" loss and trying again:

The lower price will see smaller premiums. IV will likely have dropped from the ~400% it is now to a more normal value, so the premiums won't be as juiced.

Also, you now have to sell OTM calls (even smaller premiums) rather than ATM calls, unless you want to risk getting your shares called away locking in the paper loss.

It could be a profitable trade, but it is not free money.
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FJ43
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3:28a, 6/7/21

Mornun!

A new day and a new week of trading ahead. Here's your morning snapshot.....



SPY opening slightly lower and I'll be watching 420.68. Should we test that and bounce I'll play long back up.
Qs opening slightly lower and I'll be watching 333.68 & then 332.50. Bounce here and I'll play long back up.

SKEW rose back up a little to 147.76

So....SPY and Qs......



Trade wisely!

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FJ43
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5:18a, 6/7/21

SPCE

Maybe keep an eye on this.

Broke downtrend and flagging here. Hold the 2nd downtrend and about $30.12 and think this could be in play.

Possible weekly ideas....
Breaks $32.20 and can maybe play to $35 for quick scalp.
Breaks $35 (better yet) and could play to $39.75+.

Could always go 6/18 calls.







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McKinney Ag69
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7:07a, 6/7/21
AG
Pounding the table here. You guys should get into GOED. It's trading at 2.66 and just acquired the largest online provider of household appliances in the country, Appliances Connection. I think it could be the next Wayfair, or overstock.com. For reference overstock OSTK was 3.23 in March last year and went to 120.00 by August. Wayfair went from 27.00 in March to 370.00 at one point and is 321.00 today. GOED (Goedekers & Appliances connection) is in the same vertical and just had insiders buy a significant amount of shares.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/1847-goedeker-announces-closing-205-210100587.html





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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 7:14a, 6/7/21
Sponsor
AG
Challenger 17 said:
Pounding the table here. You guys should get into GOED. It's trading at 2.66 and just acquired the largest online provider of household appliances in appliances connection. I think it could be the next Wayfair, or overstock.com. For reference overstock OSTK was 3.23 in March last year and went to 120.00 by august. GOED is in the same vertical and just had insiders buy a significant amount of shares.


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BullSprig07
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In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 7:27a, 6/7/21
AG
I'm in at $2.66
Water Turkey07
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austinAG90
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7:32a, 6/7/21
AG
Monday Macros

Rates Back Up on Yellen Comments and Renewed Wage Inflation

Janet Yellen made comments that higher rates in treasuries would be welcome... In fact she said rates should normalize, especially given the forthcoming massive infrastructure bills... 10 years have backed up to what was previously resistance of 1.58, after breaking to 1.55 on the weaker employment number... 5 years are clearly above the .78, at .80... So we are back in the range with lots of longs in the market in front of the 120 billion dollar refunding this week of 3/10/30. So what is "normal" anyway... For old timers the historical average of 10 years is 4%... Yellen is not talking about going back to those levels... Currently we think the world normal refers to zero real rates, or about 2.42... So we look at normal as probably 2.25-2.50... And given the difficulty of not be able to break 1.77% for 10 years, we would be happy to see our original prediction of 2% 10 years and 1.25% 5 years... Either way rates are higher yielding today.

Fed unwind... The NY Fed starts to unwind their Bond ETFs, starting today... They own a lot of them... The biggest holding is LQD... But there are many others where the Fed holds over 2 billion... Do not expect the Fed to sell quickly and will hopefully do what they did with their Bear Stearns holdings, wait for the big guys to call them to show them billion dollar bids, when the market can stomach it best... Doubt they will be the offer in the ETF space... As for tapering, the employment number knocked it off from the top of the Fed discussions from next weeks meeting, but it will get some play... Many Fed governors are thinking that the labor market is much tighter than the numbers look... And many are working under the table and not showing up in the employment numbers...Certainly the Dallas Fed paper, endorsed by the St Louis Fed, has credibility... Even Clarida, in an interview with Zenter of MS, said that 500 a month of employment, and a recent 3 month average of 541,000, is enough for the Fed to start the talks about tapering...... The actual tapering may not start until near end or even into next year, but the discussions will start next week.

Inflation... It is here and brewing...CPI on Thursday current expectations for
CPI YOY is 4.7%, after being 4.2% last month... Car prices may have peaked for now, but given what we read over the weekend, we doubt it... Car prices are up $4000 over the last year, but companies are using the shortage of chips to put the good stuff in the High End vehicles....nonetheless it is wage inflation that is never transitory, that will sink the disinflation crowd... Higher rates. With volatility at some of the lowest points, expect a spike as the inflation mantra starts to change and become a fear, as opposed to the non believers out there... The next big move in inflation will come from rents, where landlords will start to raise rents based on shortages and increasing home values....

Goldilocks is not the right strategy... We are still ok with equities for the rest of the month... But inflation and higher rates are coming... And so is a massive amount of stimulus... But it could still be towards September when fireworks occur... But take some risk off the table... Too many are pursuing similar strategies...


The chop will continue this week.. The inflation and rate war will continue... Do not get mesmerized into what many are trying to convince you that this is a "Goldilocks economy"... It is not... And we view it as treacherous... Range for 10 years is 1.52 to 1.64... But if 5 years can not break the .78 and sustain it, higher rates are coming.
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FJ43
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In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 7:35a, 6/7/21
I'll take some for a ride.
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ProgN
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7:38a, 6/7/21
PTON upgrade, PT $140
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FJ43
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In reply to austinAG90 • 7:39a, 6/7/21
austinAG90 said:

Goldilocks is not the right strategy... We are still ok with equities for the rest of the month... But inflation and higher rates are coming... And so is a massive amount of stimulus... But it could still be towards September when fireworks occur... But take some risk off the table... Too many are pursuing similar strategies...

This. Thanks for always providing solid valuable insight. Way beyond my paygrade and learn with each post.

Much appreciated.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to slacker00 • 7:39a, 6/7/21
AG
Ok thanks! That's what I was getting at I guess. The premiums won't be as good and will have to sell out of the money if it falls pretty good. Just was trying to figure out my risk. I made like $10 contract selling calls with no outs last week and thought it might be smarter to use some of the call premium to buy puts in case the price craters this week
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McInnis 03
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7:39a, 6/7/21
AG
ES at 4231.......important level. Above it is a sky trip below it is likely chop to 4208 or so (Edit because I'm not in the prediction business, still working on that). Watching.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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McInnis 03
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7:43a, 6/7/21
AG
Does it look like Bitcoin needs to make a daily decision soon? I mean consolidation at it's finest is what I'm seeing and it appears to be getting to the tip of a triangle.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:56a, 6/7/21
McInnis 03 said:
Does it look like Bitcoin needs to make a daily decision soon? I mean consolidation at it's finest is what I'm seeing and it appears to be getting to the tip of a triangle.
I think this needs to break the downtrend before I would enter. Maybe 39,676ish level.

Below the EMAs. Maybe it breaks up but could also be a bear flag huh?



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FJ43
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8:01a, 6/7/21
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MOCO9
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8:11a, 6/7/21
AG
CIDM added to Russell Microcap Index.

Russel Index Additions

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Irish 2.0
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8:14a, 6/7/21


**** is trending on Twitter...lol
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FJ43
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In reply to MOCO9 • 8:18a, 6/7/21
MOCO9 said:
CIDM added to Russell Microcap Index.

Russel Index Additions

Wish this thing had an options chain.
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cageybee77
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In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 8:19a, 6/7/21
AG
I've made some money off of this already. Thanks to (you?) somebody mentioning it on this board.
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Brewmaster
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8:20a, 6/7/21
AG
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to Brewmaster • 8:22a, 6/7/21
AG
BREwmaster said:
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fooz
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 8:22a, 6/7/21
Irish 2.0 said:


**** is trending on Twitter...lol
I saw a buddy post something about that on FB last night. He's part of the whole reddit/amc crowd.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 8:24a, 6/7/21
AG
Irish 2.0 said:


**** is trending on Twitter...lol
The Apes are out of control.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 8:24a, 6/7/21
AG
Irish 2.0 said:


**** is trending on Twitter...lol
Since I've been accosted for my lack of Cancun imaging, here you go on today's trends.


***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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Jet Black
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8:25a, 6/7/21
Ranger222
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8:29a, 6/7/21
AG
Seems like everyone and their mother will be in AAPL calls at the open.....which makes me nervous
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AgCPA95
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In reply to [removed post] • 8:35a, 6/7/21
AG
jayelbee said:
Looks like $CLNE is forming the right half of the goalpost today.

$CLNE moving up nicely over the past 2-3 days.
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