quote:For the morons following this thread, what does that mean. That sounds like the squirrel with an acorn comic from the beginning of this thread.
Wave reversal results in confirmation signal in island top.
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quote:No joke!quote:For the morons following this thread, what does that mean. That sounds like the squirrel with an acorn comic from the beginning of this thread.
Wave reversal results in confirmation signal in island top.
quote:You know what I mean
You purchased $760 amazon puts?
quote:I'll let Clay explain what an "island top" technical signal, if he cares to.quote:No joke!quote:For the morons following this thread, what does that mean. That sounds like the squirrel with an acorn comic from the beginning of this thread.
Wave reversal results in confirmation signal in island top.
My post was simply observing that his potential "island top" would be expected based on the previous days wave reversal post, telling people to get positioned for a pullback. It wasn't code, but glad to see the ghosts popping in. Where ya been??? lol I do still enjoy the squirrel comic because it's actually true.
You want to begin learning about wave reversals then Jeff gives a great start on the Top 4 Elliott waves. Just so happens to start tomorrow.
https://www.elliottwave.com/en/Free-Events/4-Best-Elliott-Waves-to-Trade
quote:quote:You know what I mean
You purchased $760 amazon puts?
Did you sell puts? I dunno. Which way do you think it'll go?
Wow, Comstock Resources stock up 33% today and another 9% after hours.
quote:Oh you were serious? I bought the $760 strike price Puts yesterday. Downquote:quote:You know what I mean
You purchased $760 amazon puts?
Did you sell puts? I dunno. Which way do you think it'll go?
I'm very beginner with complex EW. Island top is very easy to identify. Pull up SPY chart over last 3 days. Gap up, rounded top, gap down. There are long standing bearish divergences on S&P and it's another signal of the exhaustion. I'm not expecting much to the downside at this point. I had SPY puts today but closed them. Keeping in mind there at a lot of open gaps beneath and any strong liquidation action will come quick and vertical.
Oldarmy what levels are you expecting tested?
Oldarmy what levels are you expecting tested?
quote:quote:Oh you were serious? I bought the $760 strike price Puts yesterday. Downquote:quote:You know what I mean
You purchased $760 amazon puts?
Did you sell puts? I dunno. Which way do you think it'll go?
Deamn! How long term did you get 'em?
quote:quote:quote:Oh you were serious? I bought the $760 strike price Puts yesterday. Downquote:quote:You know what I mean
You purchased $760 amazon puts?
Did you sell puts? I dunno. Which way do you think it'll go?
Deamn! How long term did you get 'em?
I entered them on Monday when posting that any up side move on the markets should be used to position for a short term reversal. So entered when AMZN was at $769 and the $4+ drop yesterday gained 19%. I didn't close any of them with expiration next Friday.
quote:
I'm very beginner with complex EW. Island top is very easy to identify. Pull up SPY chart over last 3 days. Gap up, rounded top, gap down. There are long standing bearish divergences on S&P and it's another signal of the exhaustion. I'm not expecting much to the downside at this point. I had SPY puts today but closed them. Keeping in mind there at a lot of open gaps beneath and any strong liquidation action will come quick and vertical.
Oldarmy what levels are you expecting tested?
Markets can break the Elliott 1st liquidation wave by closing above yesterdays high. A close below would ensure a 250 point DOW move downward. Then it moves to wave 2 signal watch, and so on. Still nothing showing on the overall macro trend so Monday's alert was a short term swing trade opportunity, and opportunity to book profits, sell covered calls or buy Puts.
So unless some other macro signals hit I'll close out all these pullback positions and then buy the dips.
Can anyone make sense of the CWEI run up? Up over 100% this year. I have friends who work there, and no one understands why it has done this.
Odd.
Lots of people shorting it: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bb5e5cd8-8aa5-3ab0-b25d-879f040bff01/ss_which-upstream-stocks-lead-in.html
Maybe people are thinking its a buyout candidate? No idea.
Lots of people shorting it: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bb5e5cd8-8aa5-3ab0-b25d-879f040bff01/ss_which-upstream-stocks-lead-in.html
Maybe people are thinking its a buyout candidate? No idea.
quote:
Odd.
Lots of people shorting it: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bb5e5cd8-8aa5-3ab0-b25d-879f040bff01/ss_which-upstream-stocks-lead-in.html
Maybe people are thinking its a buyout candidate? No idea.
It's a short squeeze. See CLF for what's next. Same thing finished on it last week.
What do you think will happen to CLF after the share issuance oldarmy?
quote:It will churn for weeks. That's why the big money used the opening to squeeze the shorts. Jeff (Aggiemetal) and I traded the squeeze and then traded the topping reversal. Not that you can time the markets....
What do you think will happen to CLF after the share issuance oldarmy?
p.s. AMZN $760 Puts already hit in the money and closed out a salty 52% gain.
If the market continues as it is today, you expect the DOW to lose 250? Did I read that right? Thanks again for your wealth of knowledge. Would you mind sharing your email oldarmy? I'd like to ask you some questions offline and I don't believe I can PM you without premium membership.
quote:oldarmy83 at gmail
If the market continues as it is today, you expect the DOW to lose 250? Did I read that right? Thanks again for your wealth of knowledge. Would you mind sharing your email oldarmy? I'd like to ask you some questions offline and I don't believe I can PM you without premium membership.
I'm a ghost because i'm not a trader. Just looking for macro signals.
Well, there is 5 waves down, eh, and it ripped right back up.
quote:
Markets can break the Elliott 1st liquidation wave by closing above yesterdays high. A close below would ensure a 250 point DOW move downward. Then it moves to wave 2 signal watch, and so on. Still nothing showing on the overall macro trend so Monday's alert was a short term swing trade opportunity, and opportunity to book profits, sell covered calls or buy Puts.
So unless some other macro signals hit I'll close out all these pullback positions and then buy the dips.
We closed above yesterday's close, but below yesterday's high. Would this be considered a continuation of the first liquidation wave for now?
quote:
I'm a ghost because i'm not a trader. Just looking for macro signals.
Me too brother..me too.
quote:
Well, there is 5 waves down, eh, and it ripped right back up.
Have to get home and take a look at the days action. That said closing trades, like the AMZN Puts posted and buying dips has remained the strategy.
quote:Technically it's a mixed bag, so in my book the Monday position opportunity has closed. I exited all the Monday trades but didn't buy the dips because we couldn't make a run all the way back to close above yesterdays highs.quote:
Markets can break the Elliott 1st liquidation wave by closing above yesterdays high. A close below would ensure a 250 point DOW move downward. Then it moves to wave 2 signal watch, and so on. Still nothing showing on the overall macro trend so Monday's alert was a short term swing trade opportunity, and opportunity to book profits, sell covered calls or buy Puts.
So unless some other macro signals hit I'll close out all these pullback positions and then buy the dips.
We closed above yesterday's close, but below yesterday's high. Would this be considered a continuation of the first liquidation wave for now?
Done
Well that is cryptic?
I'm thinking/hoping he meant he was done responding to people yesterday since he made a few posts in a row.
GarlandAg2012 do you have the scoop on a particular downstream energy company based in Houston or is the name just a coincidence? Interested to see why this stock seems so undervalued still.
I think it's mainly because the market doesn't see it as a true Midstream company, and it is still tied to big brother.
Sadly, the Garland in my name refers to my town of origin, Garland.
Big brother was maybe used when the spin off happened but we see who the real big brother has been. The market is stupid for toeing it to COP considering none of their operations are the same. Look for PSX to get into more crude storage as well as more chemicals in the future. A unique company for sure that Buffet has his eyes on big.
I figured he wasn't hanging on this board but worth a shot. With him becoming the CEO in 2012 and his name being Garland you never know lol.
quote:Did anyone see the post I made before the edit to "Done"? Cause heck if I recall what it was.
I'm thinking/hoping he meant he was done responding to people yesterday since he made a few posts in a row.
Quick technical analysis update:
Look at that perfect 50% retracement within the upper and lower ranges. Split within 2 points from dead center. I placed a line showing the most recent double support bottom. Again, pretty darn exact. Big money is calling the shots, so the volume indicator takes the front seat. Only 70M shares traded on the DOW average. Not gonna move the market much at these levels. 90M shares pushed the bar pretty well August 5th, so what I do is set my average hourly alerts targeting above average volume against the 10 day average. If it's running above the average by 25% then I start getting interested in market action/response.
quote:For any others who are building their knowledge base and wanted some more basics about Elliott Wave theory:
You want to begin learning about wave reversals then Jeff gives a great start on the Top 4 Elliott waves. Just so happens to start tomorrow.
https://www.elliottwave.com/en/Free-Events/4-Best-Elliott-Waves-to-Trade
Jeff Kennedy has an Elliot Wave Tutorial on his EWI website.
He also has done a 10 part Trading Series on Trading Planet. (from that search link, select "Video/Audio" and then scroll down and start with Trader's Classroom #1)
It's definitely been interesting reading, watching, and learning.
Want this on the stock board too:
SOOO....There are three primary ways to trade them. The 1st is to buy the stock on that 2nd day volume. Statistically 81% of the time the stock will move higher on day 3. If/When it does you buy a protective Put, 1 week out, around 10% out of the money on stocks under $50. So that would be $32.90 close on 2nd day of volume and on day 3 close was $34.43. $10% out of the money would be $31. Looking back those options were only 7 cents or $70/1000 shares to sleep well at night.
The 2nd way is to anticipate the "shake" day new low and enter ONLY ONCE the stock recovers back to the previous days low. Specifically that would be Feb 11th low was $31.05 while the Feb. 10th low was $32.05. So you enter the stock on the 12th with a stop at $31. I generally go with the stop versus Put protection due to the statistical advantage.
The final, and least risk, trade would be to enter the stock once it breaks above the resistance which follows the bottom support created by the volume. From Feb. 8th - Mar. 1st that upper resistance was around $34.70 area. You can't use numbers too close to the resistance (i.e $34.76, $37.81, etc.) but you have alerts set at one of those numbers that would represent being above whatever the highest number had been. COP that would be $34.81. So alert would be set at $34.85 and if it goes off you'd pull it up on screen and just watch it. $35 would be a clear move above that resistance range period and where I would have entered the trade. Then I would have looked to see if the days volume was higher than the previous range bound period. Take a look! BINGO BANGO you're in business. I generally go Call options near close of session in addition to my intraday share entry when I see that volume.
Make sense??? Tell ya what - everyone looking around at potential investments post any major volume spike on a stock taking a hit and we can look at trading it real time.
quote:Excellent question. There's the COP chart showing the massive volume spike you referenced. The market makers used the same "trick" we've discussed several times. It hit those lows off those two 50M trade days February 4th and 5th. Then check out Feb. 11th. The stock hits a new low just before it starts it recovery. Classic price manipulation to send the weak traders running before taking the stock for a ride. This is fairly common pattern on trouble based max volume stocks.
Quoteldarmy1,
If you wanted to buy COP how/when would you have made the purchase after identifying the volume supported bottom?
One of the HUGE issues I would have had buying at that time is that the selloff was triggered by missing revenue and earnings targets by ~33%!
Do you say "that's the bottom, fundamentals be damned" and buy with the volume?
Do you wait until a day like March 2 and buy when the down gap from earnings was then covered? The volume that day wasn't exactly spectacular.
SOOO....There are three primary ways to trade them. The 1st is to buy the stock on that 2nd day volume. Statistically 81% of the time the stock will move higher on day 3. If/When it does you buy a protective Put, 1 week out, around 10% out of the money on stocks under $50. So that would be $32.90 close on 2nd day of volume and on day 3 close was $34.43. $10% out of the money would be $31. Looking back those options were only 7 cents or $70/1000 shares to sleep well at night.
The 2nd way is to anticipate the "shake" day new low and enter ONLY ONCE the stock recovers back to the previous days low. Specifically that would be Feb 11th low was $31.05 while the Feb. 10th low was $32.05. So you enter the stock on the 12th with a stop at $31. I generally go with the stop versus Put protection due to the statistical advantage.
The final, and least risk, trade would be to enter the stock once it breaks above the resistance which follows the bottom support created by the volume. From Feb. 8th - Mar. 1st that upper resistance was around $34.70 area. You can't use numbers too close to the resistance (i.e $34.76, $37.81, etc.) but you have alerts set at one of those numbers that would represent being above whatever the highest number had been. COP that would be $34.81. So alert would be set at $34.85 and if it goes off you'd pull it up on screen and just watch it. $35 would be a clear move above that resistance range period and where I would have entered the trade. Then I would have looked to see if the days volume was higher than the previous range bound period. Take a look! BINGO BANGO you're in business. I generally go Call options near close of session in addition to my intraday share entry when I see that volume.
Make sense??? Tell ya what - everyone looking around at potential investments post any major volume spike on a stock taking a hit and we can look at trading it real time.