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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 8:28p, 3/8/21
I try to be 50% cash at all times, but I got down to 30% in this latest bull market.

For a sideways market, ideally, I go:
60% cash
20% MA plays
15% long dividend
5% Focus Trade (SPY)

Full on Bear (something I've never experienced with large capital):
75% cash
10% MA
10% long dividend
5% Focus Trade

I'll play around with the latter.
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Jet Black
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 8:31p, 3/8/21
Aggiesincebirth said:
Jet Black said:
Or FUBO.


I thought I was getting my ass kicked in CLOV. Little did I know FUBO would end up draining me just as bad... 3 straight 10% down days. I just don't know where it ends


It's been brutal but I'm not bailing now. Hoping the end is near.
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jwhitlock3
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 8:35p, 3/8/21
Awesome, thanks for the reply!
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ag94whoop
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 8:42p, 3/8/21
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
A lot of retail doesn't know how to scale in while dips/corrections are taking place.

Having a plan for money and it's flows at certain levels (should they be breached) is the best course of action.

The problem is, most of the under 40 crowd (This is my age group) is a fly by the seat of their pants type and hasn't orchestrated and executed a bear/sideways plan in their 'investing' careers.

Most idiots can make money in a bull market. Those numbers go down by half to 2/3 in a sideways market. It goes down to ~10% in a full on bear market. I paper traded at first in a bear market in the early 2000s. It's not simple and you have to be dedicated to your plan.


Even though I'm 49, you described me in paragraphs 1,3 and 4. LOL
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ag94whoop
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 8:43p, 3/8/21
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I try to be 50% cash at all times, but I got down to 30% in this latest bull market.

For a sideways market, ideally, I go:
60% cash
20% MA plays
15% long dividend
5% Focus Trade (SPY)

Full on Bear (something I've never experienced with large capital):
75% cash
10% MA
10% long dividend
5% Focus Trade

I'll play around with the latter.


I literally screenshot this for future reference
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:44p, 3/8/21
AG
I convert to value, yield stocks + indexes in bear markets and just deal with the pain.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:44p, 3/8/21
AG
I was convinced until June / July that we were in a bear market rally.

Just remember, selling premium is always smart.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FattyDelights
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8:45p, 3/8/21
Might be ripe for a RIOT pop tomorrow if btc continues to rise throughout the night.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:46p, 3/8/21
AG
By the way, I kind of like the sentiment in here that tech stocks are done and won't rally. Your faces may be ripped off.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ragoo
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In reply to AgsnFly • 8:53p, 3/8/21
AG
AgsnFly said:
Ragoo said:
What is Apple's growth story the next few years? I think the roll out is more about chasing yield versus growth.

It may be likely that AAPL is driven by institutional hedging. Consider the probable volume of collars being initiated by the massive numbers of institutional owners who are very long the most valuable stock on on planet Earth. We are talking about billions of dollars in options strategies to preserve wealth.
If the macro trend is down, then the collar structures will necessitate an increase in selling pressure by the dealers who manage AAPL. The downside gamma may be driving this move. Just spitballing here but need to consider what the real players are doing here.
very good post and kind of what I was trying to drive to in my question. Some mechanism is artificially creating sellers. Institutions are not intentionally unloading one of the greatest wealth creators of the last 30 years.
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:55p, 3/8/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
By the way, I kind of like the sentiment in here that tech stocks are done and won't rally. Your faces may be ripped off.
oh they will rally
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FJ43
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 8:57p, 3/8/21
I've had been running for my trading account approx 60% stock, 20% options and 20% cash. The stock portion is primarily MA plays and have minimized swing trades in lieu of playing smaller with options. I still keep a few swings though but not my primary focus. Recently would be UAVS as an example.

On options I do not include selling covered calls or selling puts in that ratio. This is long calls, buying puts or recently started some spreads/verticals.

Cash is a position.

Profits from MAs or options trades I roll into the above accordingly. It's not always perfect ratio wise and when things were really moving a few weeks/months ago I was thinner on cash having loaded more into MAs. Options never more than 20% for me.

With the recent volatility I've been moving to more cash mostly as a result reduced the size of my options trades. MAs other than a select few I've not cut/trimmed. Closer to 35% now.

In my tax free or deferred accounts it's generally about 20-25% cash and the balance stocks. I do buy MAs in those as well as non MA positions such as maybe, AMZN, AAPL, etc. I continually sell premium against those positions and will trade actively those positions. Recently in my ROTH I've started to trim MAs when they may have lost the 8/21 and buy back lower.

Hope that helps.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:00p, 3/8/21
AG
So, is everyone bearish right now?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:10p, 3/8/21
AG
Puckered is the better term.
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Fightin_Aggie
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9:16p, 3/8/21
AG
Anyone have an idea why GBTC is not tracking with bitcoin? Typically it trades at a premium. Right now bit coin is in the 50's but GBTC equates to roughly 45k per bitcoin (I believe 1000 shares of GBTC is 1 bitcoin but could be wrong)
The world needs mean tweets

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AgsnFly
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In reply to Fightin_Aggie • 9:22p, 3/8/21
AG
Fightin_Aggie said:
Anyone have an idea why GBTC is not tracking with bitcoin? Typically it trades at a premium. Right now bit coin is in the 50's but GBTC equates to roughly 45k per bitcoin (I believe 1000 shares of GBTC is 1 bitcoin but could be wrong)

GBTC is a closed-in fund and will not track the BTC on a constant basis. As a closed- in fund it will have its own market with buyers and sellers influencing the funds value regardless of the price of BTC.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:23p, 3/8/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
By the way, I kind of like the sentiment in here that tech stocks are done and won't rally. Your faces may be ripped off.


I would welcome my face being ripped off if I can spare my cojones. Right now those are pretty blue...

Any guidance on when my face might rip off? Was hoping Friday was the end of it and I'm not sure what changes to make me more bullish but this beat down is brutal
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 9:36p, 3/8/21
AG
When there's something wrong in your port-folio, who you gonna call?

JAY POWELL

Watch out for the 30Y treasuries to catch a bid. Once that happens the forward curve will flatten. When (if) that happens, tech names will bounce.
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jwhitlock3
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:38p, 3/8/21
FJ43 said:
I've had been running for my trading account approx 60% stock, 20% options and 20% cash. The stock portion is primarily MA plays and have minimized swing trades in lieu of playing smaller with options. I still keep a few swings though but not my primary focus. Recently would be UAVS as an example.

On options I do not include selling covered calls or selling puts in that ratio. This is long calls, buying puts or recently started some spreads/verticals.

Cash is a position.

Profits from MAs or options trades I roll into the above accordingly. It's not always perfect ratio wise and when things were really moving a few weeks/months ago I was thinner on cash having loaded more into MAs. Options never more than 20% for me.

With the recent volatility I've been moving to more cash mostly as a result reduced the size of my options trades. MAs other than a select few I've not cut/trimmed. Closer to 35% now.

In my tax free or deferred accounts it's generally about 20-25% cash and the balance stocks. I do buy MAs in those as well as non MA positions such as maybe, AMZN, AAPL, etc. I continually sell premium against those positions and will trade actively those positions. Recently in my ROTH I've started to trim MAs when they may have lost the 8/21 and buy back lower.

Hope that helps.
Definitely does help. I love reading through the posts of the day and learning from everyone that posts.

UAVS is the most recent swing I added so that's a good metric for me. I added at 5.25 and I'm looking to regain the 8/21 and then see how it behaves, hoping for a move back towards 13, though the short report doesn't help it.

Also like the sentiment that selling premium is always a good idea. Appreciate you guys taking the time to share your thoughts.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 9:51p, 3/8/21
AG
Aggiesincebirth said:
Jet Black said:
Or FUBO.


I thought I was getting my ass kicked in CLOV. Little did I know FUBO would end up draining me just as bad... 3 straight 10% down days. I just don't know where it ends
FUBO's 200 day ema is 24.61. I would say that's the line in the sand, but if you look at a chart with volume, you can see institutions loaded at higher prices than that. They are shaking the tree, hard, just like most names right now.

I've been selling cc's the whole way down, to lessen the pain, and I have a small position in it (until it reverses).
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tsuag10
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9:54p, 3/8/21
AG
Sometimes I feel way too dumb for this thread, but I keep hanging on and hoping I'll soak up some knowledge.

It is working.... slowly but surely.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 10:08p, 3/8/21
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I am onboard 100%. Trying to think about how to describe a plan on here is going to be tedious but I guess we can take it a few chunks at a time.

By the way, cash is a position. Also, I was speaking with FJ today and I've kicked the curb on only trading SPY. I've averaged about a 3-5K profit per day the last month scalping/swinging SPY zones

The more focused you are, the higher likelihood of making money IMO.
that is amazing! post your levels!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:11p, 3/8/21
AG
I don't know if it will stick, but /NQ is up 157 points / 1.25%.

It is possible today was the last barf. I think we have more to go, up and down. Unless that bad boy yield curve control gets implemented, and then we go to the moon.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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10:15p, 3/8/21
AG
/NQ doesn't look horrible here if you look at the weekly. We're hanging out at the mean.

Daily getting pretty oversold IMO and need to return to 13000.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:19p, 3/8/21
AG
We are right around the August and October Peaks at current levels. If we happen to get to the 200SMA, I would be surprised if we broke it to the downside and I would just buy a bunch of QQQ.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:21p, 3/8/21
AG
There will be no rally without $AAPL rallying. It is approaching critical support.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:24p, 3/8/21
AG
notice on the daily that the high of the low bar was broken on Friday, signifying a reversal. Of course we could barf. Weekly is sitting on the mean, as is the daily....



You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:28p, 3/8/21
AG
Keep an eye on $MU

Needs the noodles to stop bleeding, but this could be good.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:28p, 3/8/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
So, is everyone bearish right now?
the SPY is certainly oscillating around a downward trend. They are getting wider too... descending broadening wedge is generally bullish. We shall see.
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BullSprig07
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11:09p, 3/8/21
AG
Any thoughts on $ANSS, Ansys engineering software? I feel like it's been drug down the past few weeks for being guilty by association of being a "tech stock", but it's business model is totally unrelated to many of these actually overvalued speculative plays and not really affected either way by COVID. It's been an incredibly stable company with great earnings per share and now has dipped down to where it was just before last year's COVID crash.

1yr.

2yr.
Water Turkey07
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BullSprig07 • 11:43p, 3/8/21
AG
Oversold. Wait for sign of reversal.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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mazag08
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:34a, 3/9/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
So, is everyone bearish right now?


No. If you are, you're not seeing the forest through the trees.

We needed to cap off valuations before they got out of hand.

We needed a short sell off before we could go higher. A market that just keeps going based on nothing tangible feels more fake by the day.

New president from a party who sucks at economics and spends like money grows on trees (or printers).

FED that historically follows the market and does nothing but harm, since the correction they historically try to achieve with their actions has already been achieved by the market which "caused them to get involved."

Forward looking and overhyped pandemic recovery that had outgrown its basis.

Absolutely ridiculous focus on fake industries propped up by government that investors targeted (if we all predict what the government will favor, we can all get rich from the government stupidity!)

All of this has led to where we are now. And where we are now was always going to happen anyway before the pandemic. The pandemic sell off and bull recovery last year was an unpredictable wave that took the place of a wave that wasn't supposed to happen yet. But 4,200 - 4,300 S&P was always going to happen after a correction. And it still will.

The end of the never ending bull market is coming, just not yet. This is a correction. This is not a reversal.

I know some of y'all scoff at Elliott Wave theory (while rightfully praising Model T which is a slightly different way of calculating retracements). But it's primarily a mathematical and analytical tool for evaluating investor sentiment. Fibonacci isn't incredible and jaw dropping when it happens naturally in millions of different ways on this planet for no reason. And no matter how technological we get collectively, the markets still trade on sentiment and emotion.
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FJ43
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3:11a, 3/9/21
Morning all !

Well could it actually be that we get a slight gap up on SPY and a little punch on Qs?

ES currently up to 3858 or 1.03%
NQ currently up 236 or 1.91%

All really early here but I will take it. Still don't trust it yet but let's see if this can not only hold, despite what will most likely be more chop and volatility intraday, and build from here.

Now for our favorite bull market gif...




Lets go! Trade wisely.

Signed,

Hopeful Uptrend Continuation
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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5:27a, 3/9/21

Can we hold here? I have no idea....just a line I will be eyeballing today to maintain the trend.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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cageybee77
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:44a, 3/9/21
AG
It looks like it's time for a red stick (at the bottom)
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