SoupNazi2001 said:

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Its a bear market so you want to try to trade with the primary trend which is down. This means selling bounces instead of trying to buy falling knives. I do think we get a bounce soon but would look to sell it in January.

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Yes, I know. I'm breaking one of the cardinal rules.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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The real pain will be when the inevitable relief rallies fail. Everyone remembers September/ October 2008 but we had two large 4-6 week rallies of 15%+ earlier in the year (March to May and again in summer) that failed miserably.

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Agree. Not seeing any support here. Looks like we will see SPX 2350 sooner than later. I plan to go all in there. Then look for that 15% rip over a few weeks up to push 2700. Then freaking liquidate a lot, 75% ish

Hoping to reverse some of my bag holding that I'm doing right now. Sold out about a 40% at just above 2800 but got greedy and put 3/4 of it back in at 2600 ish. Don't need any of it for 15+ years so great learning opportunities haha

ROKU is baffling. Held out for a long time and bought in low-mid 40s. Woof

It's not without reason though.
strong hammer at 10:50
engulfing with follow through at 11:15

Plus, there will be a retrace from the steep move yesterday and today.

But you are right. Trade with the trend.

Another bit of advice. If you're not currently maxing out your 401k do it now!

Also if you are an occasional trader like me in a brokerage account, get ready to sell the rips in 2019 and use it to fund your Roth IRA.

CNBC BREAKING NEWS: "The Nasdaq is in a bear market"

No **** dumbasses. I see this as a sign we're close to the bottom.

Prognightmare said:

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CNBC BREAKING NEWS: "The Nasdaq is in a bear market"

No **** dumbasses. I see this as a sign we're close to the bottom.

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Aren't they just geniuses?

59 South said:

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Prognightmare said:

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CNBC BREAKING NEWS: "The Nasdaq is in a bear market"

No **** dumbasses. I see this as a sign we're close to the bottom.

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Aren't they just geniuses?

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My experience is when they preach doom like this with bright red "Breaking News" bs, they always have picked the bottom.

I like their Fast Money show. After that, their next best thing is Shark Tank.

Fast Money and Cramer and that's about it.

This is a cyclical bear market in a secular bull. They average is 21-25%declines and last 3-6 months. I very seriously doubt this is a 35%+ decline bear market like 2008-2009. Some areas are starting to perform better. The emerging markets are looking better and they lead this worldwide bear market down.

2300-2350 on the SP500 and 20000 +/- a percent on the Dow, 5750+/- a percent region on the Nasdaq are probably decent targets. If the SP500 breaks 2300 in a big way it will break the long term up trend and not be a good sign. Same goes for the Dow and Nasdaq. There will be a powerful rally sometime, maybe starting before the year is up, and then a down draft to new lows and several retest there after. It will take several months.

Trump not going to sign spending bill. That support that I had is gone now.

I'm out.

Curious if anybody has any advice for a young guy here trying to understand patience as an investor in a bear market...

My wife and I try to keep things as simple as possible with our investing, focusing on the free money aspects. Aside from maxing out 401k matching, we also max out an ESPP for a publicly traded tech company, getting a 15% discount on the market price at the start or the end of the ESPP vesting cycle, whichever is lowest.

With our current ESPP vesting cycle ending in February, I'm curious if it's best to be patient and wait for the bear market to work itself out, or to just take the the guaranteed money/profits and sell the moment it hits our account. I've read a lot of financial message boards that say you should always take the immediate profit and go.

The main reason I'm thinking about not doing the prudent thing and selling right away is that, if the price is lower at the end of the cycle than the beginning, I'll be buying a decent amount of additional shares than originally projected. That, paired with a potential rebound, seems like simple patience could end up paying off for me even better than projected. But now, I also sound like I'm trying to time the market. I don't want to speculate.

We were fortunate to be riding this market wave for the past year and half and really didn't have to do much thinking to make a very nice ROI, but now with the downturn, I'm trying to understand and assess what the most prudent approach is to maximize returns while mitigating unnecessary risk.

Thanks to anybody willing to offer up some wisdom and guidance.

(NOTE: Forgive me if this isn't the proper thread for this kind of ask, but didn't think this warranted it's own thread)

I am just adding 5% in every days big volume spike yesterday and now today. Remember I want 2350 S&P to go 50% on 401k's.

Bear markets are merciless so pick solid companies with good fundamentals long term and from here downward you will see a decent move above entry once we find major support. Also, on any $50-100 stock I buy options costing $1-$2.50 below entry. Capital preservation = lose $1-$2.50 per 100 shares versus a full on collapse hitting your core.

So take an SQ for example. I bought 10k shares at $54.57. I buy 100 $53 Puts out to next Friday for $1.30. If we hit a reversal SQ will challenge $60 fairly quickly so I'll take the net between $54.57 , $60 mines $1.30. But I have multiple choices if it continues down. I could exercise the option at $53 and take my lumps or I could sell the options for whatever premium it rises to if SQ continues lower.

Take a look at ROKU chart and that's a bear market look. Day after day after day of down down down. Relentless, merciless until the bottom flood hits.

Jesus. What a day/month

Glad I got out when I did. (basically flat)

100 points on an S&P 500 Closing basis away from a Mega Trend Market change. Seller's are trying to push it down. It's fun to watch. My opinion, Seller's don't have anything left in the tank..

ETA: 1,000 points based on a quarter point move in interest rates; of course, followed by the previous 3 increases. I'm with Mnuchin, "It's overblown"..

ETA2: Engines reverse today.

NVDA hit my $135 target and filled

Remember that $227 gap on NFLX? If that gets filled I would wager the 2350 S&P comes.

We had a nice volume bounce off 2442 see if it Dreaded h like every one has or the cup gets a handle and we continue upward for a decent bounce.

Ticked off at market makers dealings on MNGA. Received a large fill at $17.50 but was sitting with 1M shares at $0.17 and it flashed below there on a negotiated trade so no fill. Love those type of clear out drops today when they recover back to 22 cents now and a ton of weak holders throwing in the towel.

Top trade is MTUM. To break $100

oldarmy1 said:

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Ticked off at market makers dealings on MNGA. Received a large fill at $17.50 but was sitting with 1M shares at $0.17 and it flashed below there on a negotiated trade so no fill. Love those type of clear out drops today when they recover back to 22 cents now and a ton of weak holders throwing in the towel.

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I hope you clean house with their weak hands.

drill4oil78 said:

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This is a cyclical bear market in a secular bull. They average is 21-25%declines and last 3-6 months. I very seriously doubt this is a 35%+ decline bear market like 2008-2009. Some areas are starting to perform better. The emerging markets are looking better and they lead this worldwide bear market down.

2300-2350 on the SP500 and 20000 +/- a percent on the Dow, 5750+/- a percent region on the Nasdaq are probably decent targets. If the SP500 breaks 2300 in a big way it will break the long term up trend and not be a good sign. Same goes for the Dow and Nasdaq. There will be a powerful rally sometime, maybe starting before the year is up, and then a down draft to new lows and several retest there after. It will take several months.

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I agree with you. I raised cash to 36% a couple of months ago (not at the top but once it broke trend) and will begin nibbling as the S&P approaches 2,350. And I will be buying blue chips and tech and medical and health insurance stocks I have long wanted to own.

By the way, I am PETE Class of "78" and your handle makes me think you might have been in there with me.

Fear has returned!

Is that panicking I am starting to hear?

oldarmy1 said:

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Remember that $227 gap on NFLX? If that gets filled I would wager the 2350 S&P comes.

We had a nice volume bounce off 2442 see if it Dreaded h like every one has or the cup gets a handle and we continue upward for a decent bounce.

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Big bounce off the 2440 in a hurry. There is resistance there from 2017. Not much though. That may have been the final flush for this cycle.

Look at financial stocks. Almost all green

oldarmy1 said:

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I am just adding 5% in every days big volume spike yesterday and now today. Remember I want 2350 S&P to go 50% on 401k's.

Bear markets are merciless so pick solid companies with good fundamentals long term and from here downward you will see a decent move above entry once we find major support. Also, on any $50-100 stock I buy options costing $1-$2.50 below entry. Capital preservation = lose $1-$2.50 per 100 shares versus a full on collapse hitting your core.

So take an SQ for example. I bought 10k shares at $54.57. I buy 100 $53 Puts out to next Friday for $1.30. If we hit a reversal SQ will challenge $60 fairly quickly so I'll take the net between $54.57 , $60 mines $1.30. But I have multiple choices if it continues down. I could exercise the option at $53 and take my lumps or I could sell the options for whatever premium it rises to if SQ continues lower.

Take a look at ROKU chart and that's a bear market look. Day after day after day of down down down. Relentless, merciless until the bottom flood hits.

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Now lets dissect this trade so far. If we did hit a market bounce bottom then SQ will shoot even higher but from my entry to its current price I have the cost of my Put already covered and am selling a % of shares to cover the cost of the total Put purchase but will hold onto the Puts. Therefore if this bounce fails and we hit new lows the next SQ I buy will likely be close to the Put price for a zero risk entry.

Obviously I would prefer to see this bottom "V" that formed across most every stock result in continuation up.

Guarantee shorts are changing their trousers. Seller's stalled out.

Hadn't posted much earlier because I was setting up entries. Remember that small gap at 2466 on the S&P. Once we hit that and flashed down almost immediately after that's when I was pulling the trigger. If you are now long you want to see 2466 hold today.

CHART ACCIDENTLY TYPED 2166. HOPE NO ONE JUMPED OUT OF A BUILDING ON THAT!

2466?

Ragoo said:

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2466?

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Ah nuts! yes 2466....sorry. Busy as you can imagine.

Here is intraday and we trended down and then fell over the cliff once 2466 hit, attempted a reversal and failed into the flash bottom. It would be very good to see 2466 hold by the close.

Look at the end of my last pivot line and look where we just pivot back upward. Dead on that one.