sell calls, buy puts...

Find an entry point (not now) and don't lose money. Make this market your bich.

Tech got absolutely crushed today though.

FriscoKid said:

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Tech got absolutely crushed today though.

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Yep, which is what my calls were on

It's bound for rebound this week.

FriscoKid said:

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sell calls, buy puts...

Find an entry point (not now) and don't lose money. Make this market your bich.

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Didn't have plans to sell anything that I lost today really. Just sucks seeing so much red today on my longs. Haven't had much time to tinker in the market today. Have a few calls that will likely be shot though.

UpstateAg said:

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It's bound for rebound this week.

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Based on what? The feelz that you have?

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Most of you guys are too bullish IMO. Year 9 of a bull market, 10% correction this year then makes a slight new high in the fall and then proceeds to fall again. Under the 200 day MA for several weeks and 200 day MA slope has gone negative. Bounces have been sold aggressively. Former momentum leaders are getting hammered. Rates are still rising. These are all classic topping signs and scream reduce short-term risk.

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As a counter to your statement, the probability that the current correction process will lead to a buying opportunity increases as the S&P 500 Index approaches the area of the Feb 8th close of 2581.

There is nothing in the current economy to signal an economic slowdown or recession, yet. Second quarter 2019 may be the headwinds to stimulate a mega-trend bear market change; however, this bull cycle is not done. You'll see a another buy opportunity before this bull is over with - see above paragraph.

Mostly the last ten thanksgiving weeks charts. Almost 90% of the time it is a strong week. I know those don't mean much now, but I expect a decent close to the year and then another correction in early-mid January based on charting.

Feelz are strictly reserved for all AVEO prognostications.

Bought PSQ a week ago as a hedge on a sell signal for the Nasdaq100. Should have bought a hell of lot more and I may buy more if the highs of Oct 30 are taken out. Funny thing I had an indicator to buy on the SP500 a few weeks ago and still has not gone to a sell yet. If we break the lows of last week it may go back to sell, but still on buy signal even with todays selling action. Must be the low volume.

Market is acting like it is trying to bottom but if it takes out those recent lows it could get real ugly.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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SoupNazi2001 said:

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Most of you guys are too bullish IMO. Year 9 of a bull market, 10% correction this year then makes a slight new high in the fall and then proceeds to fall again. Under the 200 day MA for several weeks and 200 day MA slope has gone negative. Bounces have been sold aggressively. Former momentum leaders are getting hammered. Rates are still rising. These are all classic topping signs and scream reduce short-term risk.

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As a counter to your statement, the probability that the current correction process will lead to a buying opportunity increases as the S&P 500 Index approaches the area of the Feb 8th close of 2581.

There is nothing in the current economy to signal an economic slowdown or recession, yet. Second quarter 2019 may be the headwinds to stimulate a mega-trend bear market change; however, this bull cycle is not done. You'll see a another buy opportunity before this bull is over with - see above paragraph.

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Many bear markets have occurred when there was no recession. And further to that point the market typically sells off prior to the economy cooling off. Some areas of the market are already showing signs of cooling off though. Housing and autos to name a few which have a lot of secondary effects if they continue to slow.

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Okay. Thanks.

Like I always say, it takes 2 opinions to make a horse race.

UpstateAg said:

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Mostly the last ten thanksgiving weeks charts. Almost 90% of the time it is a strong week. I know those don't mean much now, but I expect a decent close to the year and then another correction in early-mid January based on charting.

Feelz are strictly reserved for all AVEO prognostications.

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I always feelz the December rally

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Most of you guys are too bullish IMO. Year 9 of a bull market, 10% correction this year then makes a slight new high in the fall and then proceeds to fall again. Under the 200 day MA for several weeks and 200 day MA slope has gone negative. Bounces have been sold aggressively. Former momentum leaders are getting hammered. Rates are still rising. These are all classic topping signs and scream reduce short-term risk.

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I think because 95% of people only trade long leads to this correct view. But I also think a lot of people have been reserved in taking any large positions through this cycle. And I hope the majority of the positions taken have been on major gap fill flash downs.

AMZN has been on watch for several weeks to fill that $1540 gap. That gap being filled is when you start looking at potential flash entries. A stock above $1000 will fill the gap and momentum takes it a good deal further down. Last time into the $1470's.

I've personally been primarily trading naked Puts on these flash moves down because with a $40-50 cushion I can watch to see if the $1470 level fails amidst a macro market failure to rebound then I'll work my way clear relatively easy. That said, the ROI during this period of instability has been off the charts. On the rare occassion where I've taken a big swing in position the gains have been quick. It's been a traders market because if you bought and held, even at most previous lows, you are now under water.

And you're correct on a lot of indicators which is why I haven't taken any large long share positions. I could see NFLX fill its $222 gap. Imagine the fear in the markets for that to happen. It would be my no-brainer moment in taking that large position.

Good stuff Soup.

It's been good for me too. The market is going to move where it moves. I'm just picking up crumbs along the way. Love the strong movement though in both directions.

The open is gonna suck. Look at AMZN.

amzn is down 3% but look at square...

Breaking major support and being below the 200 ma is a good thing, right??

SQ and ROKU down 10%+

Gotta hope we bounce hard off that 2635 number again right? If not then it's bad news bears

UpstateAg said:

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Breaking major support and being below the 200 ma is a good thing, right??

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I've put 25% more from last flash bottom into markets this morning for all 401k accounts. Biggest tech buys SQ $55.85, AMZN $1436, NFLX $253.50, AAPL 178.63

My plan now is to watch open and sell covered calls at each entry price for a cushion/gain on 50% of the buys. Then see where we go from this meltdown.

Never thought I'd say this, but my bios are propping up my accounts today.

AVEO

Honestly don't remember this kind of carnage in premarket trading (of course I have only been paying attention for a couple of years). Margin calls occurring this morning?

ROKU nice move into open for premium on covered calls.

I haven't been called... yet

GILD

Also holding off on covered calls with markets moving off lows. Will enter AMZN covered call portion at $1450.

Done on AMZN! Whoop! Got a $45+ premium on weekly's 1437.50

oldarmy1 said:

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ROKU nice move into open for premium on covered calls.

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Got on $39 weekly calls on ROKU at open for $1.10

All covered calls in place. Thank you ROKU especially!

Expect a lot of turbulence so if you are bottom fishing on some stocks and get a power move up then take a big chunk off. Remember ots a short week so premium decay will accelerate.

Man I do love this so!

Thank you NIO puts!

Did Someone say turbulence. S&P headed for that retest of last low.

The thanksgiving slaughter.