OSTK heartbeat

Sorry, BBOX. Having a nice little run this afternoon after meandering about the last few weeks.

Hammer on INVE?

Big lot of AGN Nov 205 calls bought. I'm following this trade and buying

Ranger222 said:

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Big lot of AGN Nov 205 calls bought. I'm following this trade and buying

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What expiration date?

Same here, went in a meeting at 2 and just looked down with a 1.20 alert going off. What the hell?!?

They're monthlies so that would be Nov 16

If you want to play the chipmakers, someone bought Intel (INTC) January 2020 (!) 47 C leaps today for $5.7. Also call buying in INTC Nov 49 C. Tempted to go here too but not sure how I feel about Intel as a company -- looks like AMD is about to eat their lunch. Will just keep on my radar

Praying for a great MU cc

Thank you

RDCM moving in the right direction

leoj said:

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Praying for a great MU cc

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We need over $3.36/share and positive guidance going forward.

MU beat, they reported $3.53/share. Now we need a positive conference call and them to reaffirm guidance to the upside. (fingers crossed)

Ranger222 said:

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If you want to play the chipmakers, someone bought Intel (INTC) January 2020 (!) 47 C leaps today for $5.7. Also call buying in INTC Nov 49 C. Tempted to go here too but not sure how I feel about Intel as a company -- looks like AMD is about to eat their lunch. Will just keep on my radar

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INTC is going to lose significant market share in the coming year or two. AMD has reports of yielded 7nm coming out later this year, while INTC 10nm design is still on the rocks.

How they battle this is going to be interesting, short term trading will be fine.

Micron just swung negative AH. Guessing they said something related to pricing that didn't help.

Man they were up 5% just 15 min ago

leoj said:

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Micron just swung negative AH. Guessing they said something related to pricing that didn't help.

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Ridiculous! They said tariffs will affect margins and then say that their gross margins will be 57%-60% next qtr.

They guided below consensus for both revenue and eps.

leoj said:

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They guided below consensus for both revenue and eps.

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Quote:

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Shares had been up 5% before outlook, CFO says China tariffs will affect margins

Micron Technology Inc. shares swung from a gain to a loss in the extended session Thursday after the memory chip maker's outlook fell short of Wall Street estimates.

Micron (MU) shares had been up as much as 5% after hours following a strong quarterly earnings report, but were last down 3% in after-hours trading. At the close, Micron shares were up 12% for the year, compared with a 10.7% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index , a 9.6% rise in the S&P 500 index , and a 16.3% gain in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index .

On the conference call, Micron Chief Financial Officer Dave Zinsner forecast fiscal first-quarter earnings of $2.88 to $3.02 a share on revenue of $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected earnings of $3.08 a share on revenue of $8.45 billion.

Shares, which had been up 4.3% after hours when the call started, swung sharply into the red right after Zinsner gave the forecast. Zinser also said that margins will decrease sequentially as a result of new tariffs on goods imported from China.

"Our gross margins will also be impacted in the near term by the announced 10% tariff on $200 billion of imports from China, which will go into effect on Sept. 24," he said on Thursday's conference call. "We are working to gradually mitigate most of the impact from these tariffs over the next three to four quarters."

The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $4.33 billion, or $3.56 a share, compared with $2.37 billion, or $1.99 a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other effects, Micron claimed earnings of $3.53 a share. Micron was expected to post adjusted earnings of $3.33 a share, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet, after Micron forecast $3.23 to $3.37 a share.

Revenue rose to $8.44 billion from $6.14 billion in the year-ago period. Wall Street expected revenue of $8.25 billion from Micron, according to analysts polled by FactSet. Micron had forecast revenue of $8 billion to $8.4 billion.

"In the fourth quarter, we set revenue records across all our major markets, from automotive and industrial to mobile and cloud datacenters," Micron chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra said in a statement. On the conference call, Mehrotra said more than one-third of fiscal 2018 revenue came from data center and graphics sales.

Micron also announced that Mike Bokan will become senior vice president of world-wide sales on Oct. 1, succeeding Steve Thorsen, who is retiring from Micron after 30 years.

On Thursday, Micron shares finished higher after Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh said he expects Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.SE) will be "very disciplined" (http://www.marke****ch.com/story/micron-stock-gains-ahead-of-crucial-earnings-report-2018-09-20) in reducing memory chip production in 2019 to head off a supply glut. Rakesh has a buy rating on Micron. That optimism followed a rash of doubtful analyst notes concerned about the memory market (http://www.marke****ch.com/story/micron-earnings-after-a-quarter-of-debate-how-bad-has-the-memory-market-gotten-2018-09-18).

Of the 33 analysts who cover Micron, 24 have buy or overweight ratings, nine have hold ratings and no one has a sell or underweight rating. Following a rash of target price cuts from 10 analysts in September alone, the stock has an average price target of $76.04.

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This is a buy at these levels for people that hold long term. WHEN this trade war ends, I suspect next month, this should do well. CNBC today said China is out of bullets and their economy is hurting, deal should be close.

MU should have gone with the AAPL method of earnings call. Under promise and over deliver. I like MU at $40... it'll deliver.

They could be sandbagging on the guidance so they can get even more bang for their buck with the buybacks.

They are.

ETA: I'll be looking at leaps tomorrow

NBEV to the moon

Anyone subscribe to or enjoy The Motley Fool group? Curious.

Thanks

AMAT dropped as soon as the MU call was over too

That Micron price action during the cc was brutal. As a former MU bag holder, I'm glad I'm out. MU to me is the biggest head scratcher on the market. I get the history, I get the ASP/spot market memory concerns, but the company is running things well and I can't for the life of me wonder why that can't be rewarded.

So MU could drop over the short term, I'm not sure. However, I thought the conference call was really positive and I feel like the growth prospects for this company over the longer time horizon are huge. Here, in particular, is a great answer from the call. I know it's long, but it gets to the fact that Micron in 2-5 years is going to start seeing some huge growth. For such a low P/E and huge amounts of FCF, this is a great long term bet in the technology sector. There were other details as well, definitely worth your time to scan through the question and answer portion.

Quote:

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Mehdi Hosseini
Sure. I absolutely agree with you. And I think your Analyst Day provided a lot of detail and informative information and how the opportunities could be. I think, what we're struggling with is, how to model this is, just not on a quarterly basis, maybe on a six-month basis. Because perhaps opportunities by 2020, 2021 are enormous, but what happens in 2019? And how should we think about cloud CapEx? In the past, we had PC units and we had content. We had the smartphone units and the content. But now the cloud, either an internet or a software company provide cloud services, it's very difficult to model this. And we have to think about how '19 will look like before all of these opportunities would materialize. And I was just wondering if there is anything you can share with us to help us with the thought process.
Sanjay Mehrotra
So, I think one of the things I will share with you is that if you look at the DRAM demand growth projections in the cloud and in enterprise datacenter space, you will see that that CAGR over few years is 30%. And that is higher than the expected DRAM overall industry supply bit growth of 20%. So, this is one of the fastest growth areas, where DRAM along with NAND, really bring lot of value to those customers. I think at our Investor Day we had taken you through the details of how AI driven applications are requiring 6 times more DRAM per servers and 2 times more SSDs per server. So, I think you have to look at all of these trends. There is no one particular trend that I can point to you in this regard. Of course, you have to look at the cloud CapEx, you have to look at the average capacity increases that are taking place on the DRAM side as well as for the NAND side in cloud applications, the server attach rates. The CPUs that are going into the servers have more memory channels that's enabling more DRAM business per server content in the data center application. So, there are many of these things that all absolutely are pointing to strong demand drivers.
And just to end the comment here, I would point out that our end market applications are well-diversified in DRAM. Of course, cloud and data center is one strong growth area for us, but mobile, automotive, industrial, IoT, all of these are also growth applications. For example, in automotive and industrial, we have number one market share, and that's a very stable kind of market opportunity. And we are doing very well. Graphics is another example, right. But we have very strong position in graphics as well, and another growth opportunity. So, multiple growth drivers and we are well-positioned. The message is, the industry is structurally different and Micron -- the New Micron is also structurally different. And we are well-positioned to drive the business going forward.

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clobby said:

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NBEV to the moon

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The options I sold two days ago for $45, are now worth $530. This one hurts. Live and learn, I guess!

Green again this morning, lets see if it holds or if we start heading back towards that 2912 gap

It wouldn't surprise me to see MU go green today. I bought a bunch early this morning $43.50 area

I'm eyeing some 45 weeklies. dumb?

Edit because punctuation is hard d

UpstateAg said:

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I'm eyeing some 45 weeklies. dumb?

Edit because punctuation is hard d

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See if you get a quick down spike putting those under $0.20 and would be decent risk.

I just unloaded 5k shares at $44.73 on that spike up for protection.

UpstateAg said:

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I'm eyeing some 45 weeklies. dumb?

Edit because punctuation is hard d

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I like the idea, just not sure what the premium will be on the open this morning. I'm going to monitor it

There come all the buy targets $63-$100

Remember MU was $65 not long ago so whats priced in?

gougler08 said:

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UpstateAg said:

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I'm eyeing some 45 weeklies. dumb?

Edit because punctuation is hard d

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I like the idea, just not sure what the premium will be on the open this morning. I'm going to monitor it

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Well it looks like it's going to be over $45 by opening.