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leoj
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Wow, that is some conviction. Looking forward to following what you do with that capital. Thanks for sharing.

Do you think you could share what information led you to make this decision?
oldarmy1
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Guitarsoup said:

So don't buy in at $170 is what you are saying.
We have two completely seperate topics. The first is a quick trade.

Daring traders will look for a short covering move early tomorrow. I got in, hedged with some sales, and saw it as a good risk.

The second is looking at this current sell-off as an entry expecting a return and further appreciation long hold. I no longer see it. Not saying they could make some huge changes but its going to be a long road to resolve their model. I listened to the earnings call and they admitted that an overhaul is going to be needed.

I've been wrong before, so this is just my opinion.
Bonfire1996
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Facebook is:

1. Shedding users for more current forms of social media
2. Has a CEO who says he is more concerned with social justice than profitability.

Run for the damn hills.
oldarmy1
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You don't just find another FB but NASDAQ stocks are about to have a "Christmas in July" sale. I'll likely spread it across shares in Network Security, Online Shops/Services (SQ/JD/BIDU - again depending on how much they drop), oil services (all due to Trump impact) and add to other holdings and pharma. I'll keep a good portion in reserves.

Some specific stocks I'll be watching other than those listed above:
SM
HEAR
EXEL
AVGO ($150 would be gold!)
MOMO

Should NFLX see a significant drop, that I would consider to represent a "clear out" level for short sellers, then I would add to my net free holdings. When I say significant I am talking $286 level.

SlackerAg
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Also there's a looming threat to FB's centralized data collection & advertising business model. Peer-to-peer social networks using blockchains are emerging, which disrupts the centralized server paradigm for better user privacy (no middle-man to trust).
Señor Chang
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Is there a way to buy options after hours?

ClickClack
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Bonfire1996 said:

Facebook is:

1. Shedding users for more current forms of social media
2. Has a CEO who says he is more concerned with social justice than profitability.

Run for the damn hills.


One of them being Instagram, which Facebook owns. I think Facebook is old news but I do think Instagram is solid for a while. Does that not factor in at all?
Ranger222
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Been a busy day and trying to catch up on everything that took place. If you want to trade facebook tomorrow (day trade, not own for long term), I'm watching the AH low of 164.3. There will surly be downgrades tomorrow before the open, piling on more bad news. If the open is higher than 164.3, stay above it in the first 15 minutes (higher high on the 15 min), then you might jump in and potentially ride up for a mini-NFLX move the day after to 175 or 183. Jump off there. Also potential you get a look below 164.3 and fail, recovery, and continuation higher. If the open is below 164.3 and stays below 164.3 in the first 15 minutes, that would be very bad news and you'll revisit the last earnings low of 158 and then the Cambridge Analytica low of 149. Below even that is 133.

Near term my guess is the stock rebounds. There is soooooo much money tied up in this stock. It's 2% of SPY and 6% of QQQ if I'm not mistaken and held by a lot of hedge funds, many holding high weight positions. A dead cat bounce will let people get out before the stock continues lower in the long term time frame. I'm tempted to buy for that bounce but haven't made up my mind one way or the other.

I'm looking to buy weakness in semiconductor names tomorrow like NVDA or AMD. AMD had a hell of a quarter.
badharambe
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If you're looking for similar sector/plays to HEAR, I'd encourage looking at RAZFF and MCZAF.

Disclaimer: super speculative, high risk, high reward, and as most of you know these are OTC's.
oldarmy1
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FB just sold half of remaining buys at $181.35. Will hold rest to see how much the unraveling game pushes it.

Between shorts covering and institutional ownership FB is going to be the mother of all pump and dump plays. No telling how high they take it but pay close attention to option volumes because leverage will be a key strategy for their exit plan.

I hope they push it to $200 or even above so I can execute my plan plus buy LEAPS for the eventual rug pull into a slow bleed. Totally convinced that's where we end up, so the more juice upward during the festivities the better all around.
oldarmy1
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We haven't mentioned FB own moves in the equation. They have made some good to decent acquisitions. I could see cash flow strategies to include spinning off Instagram as an IPO with FB sharehoders getting "x" shares in the deal.

This would be a great strategy to buoy the FB albatross and set its growth segments up as the new paradigm.

We're talking long ball strategy here so don't look for any quick announcements.
oldarmy1
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LPL landed supply for Apple. Coming off a market shake dip on volume. Think you're good to $11 initially off entries in the 9's.

Low hanging fruit
oldarmy1
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Volume showing up in FB at $170. Momentum to the downside so likely to continue until an inflection point.
oldarmy1
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OLED was about to continue that signal.break at $100 after pullback. This stock was high flyer above $200 just 7 months ago before finding major support around $80. A top opportunity for cheap leap calls out to 2019.
oldarmy1
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Ranger- some services showing their scruples by maintining outperform rating.

$169 was volume inflection and I jumped back in with shares sold. This will be quick trade with quick exit at $171 filled.
oldarmy1
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Selling Friday's $150 naked Puts after we open. If I get executed because it falls below that level by Friday close I am extremely confident in at least a $15 move to $165.

I think I just bank the premium on that level.
oldarmy1
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Credit Suisse maintains outperform lowers target to 225.
Oppenheimer maintains target $200
Piper Jaffray maintains target $200.

No shame when trapped.
Ranger222
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Looking for rotation maybe into banks from tech, possibly healthcare as earnings there have been solid

If anyone wants to lotto on a bad Twitter report that could have a facebook-like fall, Jul 27 34 P were trading $4 yesterday, will see where they stand later today
leoj
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Saudi Arabia stopping Red Sea shipments after two tankers attacked by Yemen rebels.
oldarmy1
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Big volume candle to $175
0708aggie
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OA what are you looking at for your Leaps on OLED? Mar '19? Strike?
0708aggie
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F had a cup and handle forming on the 5 day but failed. Am I looking at that correctly?
PPAag06
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My little penny stock ZEST finally had some movement. Helps offset a couple bad trades the past few weeks.
oldarmy1
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0708aggie said:

OA what are you looking at for your Leaps on OLED? Mar '19? Strike?



$160

On FB....just announced buying israeli Redkix

S&P just broke intraday resistance.
gougler08
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WMT may be breaking out of the small flag it's been in
aggiehunter3
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AAPL payday - ATH breakout beautiful chart
0708aggie
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I don't show those as available on Merrill Edge. Mar '19 only goes out to 145.
oldarmy1
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Someone still buying RRTS calls at 20 cents. August expiration. Earnings couple of weeks out.
tramaro1
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oldarmy1 said:

Someone still buying RRTS calls at 20 cents. August expiration. Earnings couple of weeks out.
OA, do you think this is a good play? I know you have been buying a lot of RRTS.
UpstateAg
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I've got an order out there for the Tenable (TENB) IPO, but there are rumors they keep upping the price. The few guys who I know who are head of cyber security for their firms still swear by this company...
oldarmy1
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tramaro1 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Someone still buying RRTS calls at 20 cents. August expiration. Earnings couple of weeks out.
OA, do you think this is a good play? I know you have been buying a lot of RRTS.


Long term yes.
oldarmy1
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Rotated out of FB with buys into EXEL as posted I would. I was in at the start of volume spike and joining in pushed it up 50 cents.

Now its approaching top of Darvis Box channel. Watch that close for breakout. Perfect technical. Cup and handle ta boot
oldarmy1
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Been trying to add to JD and only caught the early selling below $36. Stupid thing ignoring FB and moving higher on what looks like a slow saueeze.
oldarmy1
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We just filled the S&P gap down from yesterday close. Watch for pullback and see if it powers through or resistance sets in.
oldarmy1
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Watch FDC. Posted yesterday and one I added buys to. Been a slow momentum rising wedge. Fell back on breakout attempt yesterday but back up close. In calls as well out past earnings. Went with Aug 17 $23
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