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21,519,588 Views | 223291 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by ProgN
12thMan86
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McInnis 03 said:

So any tips on what you look for on that end of day SPX debit spread play?
Sorry man, got busy today with work. I only do these trades when the guy in the Simpler Trading room does them. He had no idea on direction today, so we did nothing.

He uses his voo doo lines and Fibs as resistance or support. He also looks at what the market has done that day. Usually, he will let the market run into resistance or support, and at that point he'll place the spread trade.

It's not an exact science for sure. I have much more confidence in Bruce because he's been doing this for over 30 years.
Charismatic Megafauna
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gig em 02 said:

Pignorant said:

Anyone follow Splunk? They have been on a tear since hitting the March lows.

Report earnings on Thursday.
How much have you made so far?
looks like a crwd competitor...no thanks! I do think I'm going to pick up some crwd calls soon to catch earnings runup though
spud1910
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YNWA_AG said:

oldarmy1 said:

The stock that shall not be named is having a higher volume day and moved above its 2 day top.


CX?
AVEO
12thMan86
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dang ACB popping after announcing that they are buying a US CBD Company. Closed at 12.75, trading after hours around 16.
McInnis 03
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12thMan86 said:

McInnis 03 said:

So any tips on what you look for on that end of day SPX debit spread play?
Sorry man, got busy today with work. I only do these trades when the guy in the Simpler Trading room does them. He had no idea on direction today, so we did nothing.

He uses his voo doo lines and Fibs as resistance or support. He also looks at what the market has done that day. Usually, he will let the market run into resistance or support, and at that point he'll place the spread trade.

It's not an exact science for sure. I have much more confidence in Bruce because he's been doing this for over 30 years.
explains why me shooting into the air yielded no ducks.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
McInnis 03
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Gotta feel good sitting in with 49,000 friends.

Remind me to check OI tomorrow.

***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Carlo4
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Overall - lowest volume day for SPX this year. Last time it was this low was Christmas holidays. My gut tells me that no one bought this rally today, and there's a good chance of another turnaround tomorrow. That means, do the opposite of what I do.....

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC

ProgN
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McInnis 03 said:

Gotta feel good sitting in with 49,000 friends.

Remind me to check OI tomorrow.


I went with the stock anticipating the volume and upswing continues at the open. If so, I'm going to write the $26 covered call and take the premium.
leoj
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Was coming in to post this, one of the flows that stood out to me today. Another was the FISV 9/18 $105 calls, large sweeps there. And GLW 7/17 $21 calls sweeps.

Also the FB call flow was absolutely crazy today.
Brewmaster
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I followed the option flow on that one, been a fun week back in options (sat out since March). Doubled my little account in about 3 days
topher06
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Hopefully the AH trading sticks and we can get a little SPY jump to start tomorrow.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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oldarmy1 said:

Note to all: If you notice the last 2 days I haven't posted about taking a put/call position on SPY. I think tomorrow would be the day to do so, and always will try to post when I am entering. I like Thursdays due to Monday's and Friday's have higher % volatility odds.

I realize things change overnight, but I'd be interested in understanding your thoughts as this sets up for tomorrow. Things like what you are thinking of buying, strike, and date to start out. Then your tentative strategy as the SPY moves up or what you plan to do as it moves down would also be great to understand.
12thMan86
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McInnis 03 said:

12thMan86 said:

McInnis 03 said:

So any tips on what you look for on that end of day SPX debit spread play?
Sorry man, got busy today with work. I only do these trades when the guy in the Simpler Trading room does them. He had no idea on direction today, so we did nothing.

He uses his voo doo lines and Fibs as resistance or support. He also looks at what the market has done that day. Usually, he will let the market run into resistance or support, and at that point he'll place the spread trade.

It's not an exact science for sure. I have much more confidence in Bruce because he's been doing this for over 30 years.
explains why me shooting into the air yielded no ducks.


I feel your pain! Hell if I hit all the ducks I aimed at, I'd be retired!
Hes typically in the room from 1-2, and he usually will tell us what his plan is, but it usually doesn't trigger until the last hour of the day, typically the last 30 mins. That's when you can get in cheap, especially if you are essentially entering a counter trend trade. He says you need to watch the market all day to try and figure out what it "might" do in the last hour.

The fun ones are the Butterfly's he does. I've seen him hit several 10 pt wide butterflys that expire that day with CRAZY risk reward. Sometimes 10-15:1. Seldom less than 7:1. And he even pins them sometimes (meaning it closes right at the strikes he sold, or the body of the fly). His typical BF trades is .75 to 1.00 with max profit 10.

Unfortunately, I miss a lot of them, especially when times are normal and I'm not in front of my computer trading during Covid.

He also does fly's that are several months out. For example, he's got a 50pt wide fly centered around 2650 for July Monthly expiration. Right now you could buy that for 1.10. It's just a cheap hedge. The problem with Fly's is you have to time the price and time frame to really make out like a bandit. In other words, if the market was 2650 NEXT Friday, you'd think you'd make a killing. You would not, but you would make money. The Options you sell need time to decay. That's why the BF's on the same day are so cool, They strikes you sell decay fast.

I'm more of a swing trader....2 days to 2 weeks out. But the same day lottos are fun. Also as a disclaimer, and this works against me at times. I love to gamble. Most of us in here do. I've thrown dice for 25 years and this is even better.

Take care
Pignorant
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No position.
oldarmy1
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Bob Knights Liver said:

oldarmy1 said:

Note to all: If you notice the last 2 days I haven't posted about taking a put/call position on SPY. I think tomorrow would be the day to do so, and always will try to post when I am entering. I like Thursdays due to Monday's and Friday's have higher % volatility odds.

I realize things change overnight, but I'd be interested in understanding your thoughts as this sets up for tomorrow. Things like what you are thinking of buying, strike, and date to start out. Then your tentative strategy as the SPY moves up or what you plan to do as it moves down would also be great to understand.


I placed my $220 July Put hedge for $0.98 today. That is a number I actually don't anticipate seeing but gives directional balance against all my longs. I am looking at a breakout scenario that, if happens, would see $313 almost guaranteed (I actually think it would be guaranteed but not level of posting as such, and risk losing my 100% rating on guarantees).

If we open up above $298 I'll enter a $305 call out to Monday anticipating a crazed rally above $310. We get above $305 and that's when I'd enter my July $285 Put.

I think you wouldn't need the Put side but can watch markets and if above gap up by opening, or just after occurs then I'd enter the call immediately and then at $300 flash buy the FRIDAY $297 Put in case we flash to $302 and then consolidate. I'd sell half my Put on any pullback below $298 and if we dropped to $297 I'd actually buy SPY shares against them.

topher06
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Probably doesn't mean much, but AMZN is over $2,500 after hours now.
claym711
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Macro breadth is very weak right now. Whatever is left up On this run isn't much.

As I've been saying for months now, recession. We had rate inversion, and rate cuts near all time highs last year. Covid certainly accelerated things, but I believe some of what we've seen was a coordinated depressurizing of the debt bubble.

I don't think even the Fed was prepared for a pump of this magnitude, if you read into what the Fed has been saying of late. They've put in a backstop of 'we will buy SPY', but are shifting support burden to Congress, and warning of extreme economic pain with a recovery in late 2021.

There is also a big divergence in Small retail vs large trader put/call ratio, heavy market cap consolidation in high PE equities, fading volume, breadth divergence, and a number of other things. RobinHood user trading data is available. Take a look at what small retail has been up to.

Economically, no one has really felt any pain yet. All major industry elements got massive fed assistance, the unemployed got bailed out w elevated unemployment, the poor and lower mid class got a few thousand, and small business owners got PPP. Market has recovered to near all time highs, and the Printer support has preempted the necessity to move out of equities. These things will start running out over the next few months.

Big picture, hard to see any bull leg above the 3100-3300 level.
leoj
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We're about to find some things out about this market very shortly.

Carlo4
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https://www.chron.com/business/article/President-Trump-s-senior-advisers-now-predict-15280106.php

Quote:

White House officials are increasingly predicting a swift economic recovery as they break off talks with Congress on additional federal stimulus

Swollen Thumb
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CLSK up 19% at close and another 30%+ AH.
ProgN
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Ok guys, I'm back up and running, AGAIN. Please follow and I'll follow back.
IrishTxAggie
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Do you get banned more on TexAgs or Twitter? How many times has your Facebook account been suspended?
Grown Pear
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Prognightmare said:



Ok guys, I'm back up and running, AGAIN. Please follow and I'll follow back.
Wait so can you explain why you keep getting kicked off of twitter and texags or is that a story for another place?
cisgenderedAggie
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Dobre casy said:

cisgenderedAggie said:

oldarmy1 said:

Not sure how many of you have access or comfort level with shorting against calls but if you hold BJ call options into earnings you need to be up and at your computer ahead of earnings. If you get a major spike say $35+ then when you see it topping you short against your $30 Puts. Two reasons. The calls will lose premium value built up in earnings at the open tomorrow. Secondly you lock in $5+ gains on some or all for a nice win. I hardly ever carry a naked call into earnings and do not short a good portion of equivalent shares on a pop.

For beginners, a call gives you the right (the option) to buy BJ at $30/share. So if BJ is at $35, say, then you can short it and then use your call option to buy the shares at $30. BUT, no need to do so if the stock comes back down. In fact, I will sell the call on the open if the shares shorted are up $1+ over my short entry.

Looks like this. Say BJ opens at $34 after a $35 spike.

$30 Call opens at $4 in the money plus there would be maybe $0.40 premium so sell calls for $4.40 at the open. Now you have a short position up $1 and can cover if you see $35, or cover for an extra $1 and be done. But if you get some more downside then you are in command. You must have a good system and you must be deliberate for all of these strategies.


Want to try, but not sure I'm clear. You are saying to do this?

- am already long $30c today
- at open, if BJ spikes, STO $30c? This leaves me with an open long and an open short, but not a 0 position.

Wouldn't that be the same as sell to close?
Holding long $30 call

BJ spikes to $35 overnight, sell equivalent shares (100) short at $35.

BJ opens at $34, sell Long $30 calls to close for $4.40. At this time, short is up $1.


Assuming earnings are good, I'm going to give this a shot tomorrow, but I want to ask for second opinion on my understanding.

I have 2 6/19 $30 BJs at $1.60 per contract. Tomorrow morning, if it gaps up on earnings, I will enter a pre-market considerably order to short 100 shares.. once trading starts, we watch for direction and take action.

- if the price falls during the day, I look to close the short position for at least $1 per share gain.
-if the price advances, I look to close the short at a loss of no greater than what one call can cover, then sell the other for gain.
- if the price skyrockets (theoretical), I can always exercise one early to close the short, then sell the other for gain.

If there's no jump on earnings, I do nothing for now.

My concern is that I'm not seeing where this loses money, and that worries me. Am I missing something?
ProgN
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IrishTxAggie said:

Do you get banned more on TexAgs or Twitter? How many times has your Facebook account been suspended?
My first year on TexAgs I was banned, I think, 10 times. This is my 4th Twitter account.


My ban earlier this week was my first on TexAgs in almost 2 years.

I accurately described the F16 troll that came over here the other day to stir crap up, but the mods saw it differently so I was given a timeout to reflect on my descriptive words.
ProgN
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IrishTxAggie said:

Do you get banned more on TexAgs or Twitter? How many times has your Facebook account been suspended?
I've never had a Facebook account and never will because I hate Zuck.
ProgN
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Grown Pear said:

Prognightmare said:



Ok guys, I'm back up and running, AGAIN. Please follow and I'll follow back.
Wait so can you explain why you keep getting kicked off of twitter and texags or is that a story for another place?
I'm extremely political on F16 but I don't bring it into here, because all we care about is green, not red vs. blue.

On Twitter, you have to tread lightly when going at progressives or Twitter will permaban your ass with the quickness.
McInnis 03
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The hell we don't care about red
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
ProgN
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McInnis 03 said:

The hell we don't care about red
That's true.
Grown Pear
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Grown Pear
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McInnis 03 said:

The hell we don't care about red
OMG

laugh. out. loud. well played sir
gougler08
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IrishTxAggie said:




Orlando news is still running with an announcement tomorrow...will be interesting to watch
$30,000 Millionaire
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this is my thesis. If you consider P/E multiples, we're basically at all time highs and stocks are likely 140%+ of GDP. It seems overinflated. Yes, it can continue to 3100, but it can also dump. Looks like a lot of patience required on my end. I've gotten stopped out several times.
$30,000 Millionaire
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that red line is basically my short target. we'll see what happens.
Brewmaster
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how long are you riding the AMD 60c train? I sold 3 out of my 4, figure I'll ride the 4th
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