Fedup said:
Don't markets seem a little overheated to y'all. They've come an awful long way in a short time esp compared to where the markets stood last Fall. S&p almost back to 3000. One big day away from that mark. I'm nervous at this point. Considering taking money out and rebuying at lower level. Like S&p 2200-2400.
No, you will never get another opportunity to buy at this price again. Everyone should buy at these prices.
Being serious, I'm surprised, but hey, it's the fed. I was thinking we would retest or go lower than 3/23. Now, I think downside could be limited to 2500. The Remdesivir news was good but not that great and the fed didn't say anything surprising today, and both of those trumped an almost 5% Q1 GDP decline to result in 3% gains. Facebook beat on results with a heavy caveat that they are not immune to global macro economic conditions, and they're up nearly 15% today including AH. P/E multiples when accounting for earnings are above the February all time highs and every indicator says overbought, but we can stay there for a long time. All bad news is literally dismissed and any good news is trumpeted. I can't think of a tougher time to be a bear than when facing buyers on the other end willing to buy at any price and in the face of disastrous results.
I think you have to suspend logic. I have a short position and I have told myself I will not give in for at least another month or more. I told myself that 2950 was as high as the SPX could do on its retracement, and we've hit 2955 in session, now 2945 AH. I am really questioning myself on whether or not I should abandon that and start buying SPY 310C. The market can turn any day with a rug pull, but that just seems really unlikely with how willing everyone is to look past Q2 (and Q3 and possibly Q4). It is very frustrating to watch ES_F gap up every day. This does feel like a time when bulls feel like they can't lose and the rug gets pulled, but I am not sure with that massive liquidity infusion.
Tomorrow has jobless claims and then there are ECB readouts. The consensus estimate is 3.5M claims. We will probably rally up whether its higher or lower, taking unemployment to 30M.
