Smart question. Yes there is and yes those were closing transactions.

I asked this on a different thread, but thought it might get a little more exposure here:

I have been looking at some airlines as well, but have some questions around the bailout. It's my understanding that airlines that have been bailed out in the past recovered at a slower rate than the rest of the market. I know a lot depends on the stipulations/control the govt puts on them, but would be interested to know if anyone has any additional insight on this or thoughts on the questions below.

1.) Would an airline bailout deter you from investing?
2.) Does the size of the bailout or the govt's equity stake make a difference?
3.) Would investing in a carrier (like SAVE) not receiving a bailout (or receiving a small enough amount that it doesn't have to be paid back) be a better option?

Seems like every time we get a Trump nighttime chat the selloff is immediate. Puts at the close anyone?

reedsterg said:

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I asked this on a different thread, but thought it might get a little more exposure here:

I have been looking at some airlines as well, but have some questions around the bailout. It's my understanding that airlines that have been bailed out in the past recovered at a slower rate than the rest of the market. I know a lot depends on the stipulations/control the govt puts on them, but would be interested to know if anyone has any additional insight on this or thoughts on the questions below.

1.) Would an airline bailout deter you from investing? (Depends on balance sheet, and type/size of bailout)
2.) Does the size of the bailout or the govt's equity stake make a difference? (Yes, see GM 2008 equity deal)
3.) Would investing in a carrier (like SAVE) not receiving a bailout (or receiving a small enough amount that it doesn't have to be paid back) be a better option? (Maybe, depending on balance sheet and recovery in demand)

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McInnis 03 said:

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Seems like every time we get a Trump nighttime chat the selloff is immediate. Puts at the close anyone?

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I'm gonna do a strangle.

BREwmaster said:

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Permabear Doomster, lol, great twitter handle. Is he any relation to claym? LOL, j/k Clay

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Another follow of mine. Definitely leans towards the skeptical but posts some good charts almost daily and then adds weekly and monthly views as well. Always good to hear different points of view.

RoyalOak00 said:

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You're thinking we get that much movement one way or the other?

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If we close around 278 I do. I'd be willing to bet we jump outside today's range.

Look at the following and you'll have your answer.

Volume & OI for that strike
C/P ratio & Net C/P premium

Also the timing tells me that seller wanted to get out before the rapid afternoon theta burn.
On the flip side, the buyer (option writer) is happy to buy those back at a 98% gain. (Those were written at $50)

We might be in a flag pattern for a bit, be careful on strangles as sideways action could stay for a week or two

gougler08 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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72000 contracts went through on BA 145C for TOMORROW

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Gotta be banking on positive Trump news right?

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Maybe there is talk of a "defense bill" for Trump to waste taxpayer money to prop up jobs and equities. The "infrastructure bill" should help CAT. But not sure why now is the time to spend more money we can't afford to.

I thinks it's time the US adopt a gov balance sheet statement like Australia does so we can see where the money the gov takes from us ends up.

leoj said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Permabear Doomster, lol, great twitter handle. Is he any relation to claym? LOL, j/k Clay

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Another follow of mine. Definitely leans towards the skeptical but posts some good charts almost daily and then adds weekly and monthly views as well. Always good to hear different points of view.

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Loveeeeeeeeeee permabear_uk's perspective.

Already went with the 280-275 when spy was at 277.75

I have an employee who was called by the national guard. His primary job is logistics and it was a 6 month assignment.

Quote:

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All is good thanks for asking , a lot of effort was put into planning the whole western region in the event those States peak , the President gave all State Governors the decision to set up a plan for people to go back work .

I see this ending a lot sooner then anticipated hopefully with the next 60 days , we are planning to descale the Army operation no later then 1 June 2020.

So the only thing that I have been is setting up processes and contingency plans in the event we have another pandemic.

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Nasdaq is at January 2020 levels.... Haha. Its at an all time high divergence from SPY

The last time the NQ/SPY spread was this high......March 2000.....

so...qqq calls or spy calls?

Off Topic.

Nevermind.

Prognightmare said:

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In reality it the stock is over 150 by expiration you'd have to have the money in your account and then it would exercise but I suspect you'll be selling it at a profit prior to 5/11

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So does it exercise at $150 or at the expiration date, or whichever comes first? If the break even point is the strike price plus the premium, how do you break even but still not have to purchase the shares?

What am I missing here?

Either short tech or long spy. Im sure you can guess which im doing.

AgEng06 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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In reality it the stock is over 150 by expiration you'd have to have the money in your account and then it would exercise but I suspect you'll be selling it at a profit prior to 5/11

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So does it exercise at $150 or at the expiration date, or whichever comes first? If the break even point is the strike price plus the premium, how do you break even but still not have to purchase the shares?

What am I missing here?

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If it's in the money, the owner can exercise it at any time. If it's in the money at expiration, it exercises automatically.

ETA: Owner can technically exercise at any time regardless of price, but that isn't always fiscally prudent.

It's 2:30, calling slight close down

claym711 said:

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Nasdaq is at January 2020 levels.... Haha. Its at an all time high divergence from SPY

The last time the NQ/SPY spread was this high......March 2000.....

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I think this is the top for NDX in this. Anyone else brave enough to go short on NDX?

krosch11 said:

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Ohio gov declares they are opening up May 1.

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LOL. Guaranteeing a second wave.

I think we breach SPY 280, and it sticks.

Yes. What you see is the difference between what you paid and the current price.

RoyalOak00 said:

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I'm curious...I have a CALL that closes tomorrow (opened today) using Fidelity. It's down and I see the amount / percent down on my "position" screen. I also see a "current value" number which appears to be the difference from purchase vs. current loss.

Does the "current value" represent what value still remains of the original purchase if I "closed to sell" early? In other words I've lost essentially half of the value but half remains because the CALL goes until tomorrow's close...

TIA.

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Yes, if you sell to close you should be able to get the value that is shown (most likely due to time value still left on the option)

the premiums on a 276/281 are making me think about it...

Our 2:50 volume candle is green today

It's going to top out at 280. Prove me wrong SPY.

McInnis 03 said:

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SNAP just dropped big on word that they're getting shorted by major hedge fund. LONG term bear, but immediate model T could happen now.

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Done, well, almost.....got close.

My AMZN regret has gotten the best of me, have a lotto on a put for tomorrow. Y'all, let's pop a steam valve and let it bleed out a little bit, just for one day....k?