Aggie_2463 said:

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I picked up some VST shares @ $12.78

Strong balance sheet, lots of cash, and power plants will stay running. It's outage season, so they already have several plants going to be down in outage. As long as power prices hold, which they have been, there should be no issues with their Q1 results / guidance. When Q1 comes out, there will be a ton of companies looking bad, but I don't believe VST will be one.

Companies will run with skeleton staffs, and more people will be at home during day that typically aren't. Power demand should maintain or even increase.

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I like this kind of analysis! Thank you!

Prognightmare said:

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I'm busy but why is Roku up $5 AH?

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both NFLX and ROKU getting a good pump on positive news articles today... one headline was something like: Live Sports being canceled will accelerate cord cutting as more turn to Netflix and Roku.

Gilead

Is this a good thing?

McInnis 03 said:

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Gilead

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Quote:

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We have heard zero. We know nothing," said Genny Allard, the mother of Jack Allard, a 25-year-old New Jersey resident who is in a medically induced coma and on a ventilator at Hackensack Meridian Health JFK Medical Center in Edison, N.J. "I'm just, like, apoplectic at this point. I have a kid who is sick and the doctor wants to give him the next medicine that is supposed to help."

The drug, remdesivir, is being studied in several large-scale clinical trials around the world, including a huge trial announced last week by the World Health Organization. But the results have not been reported yet, and it is still unclear whether the drug works against the coronavirus. It was studied to treat Ebola, but did not work well enough against that virus.

There is no known treatment against the coronavirus. Over the last week, President Trump has repeatedly referred to remdesivir and other drugs, like two long-used malaria drugs, as potential game-changers, despite pushback by top health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Dr. Fauci has corrected Mr. Trump in blunt ways during the daily White House briefings, saying that there is not enough scientific evidence to prove the drugs will work against the virus.

Critics of the president have complained that he is instilling false hope in a desperate public, as the disease spreads rapidly around the United States and elsewhere. Highly publicized talk of prospective cures has fueled demand for these potential treatments threatening the longstanding supply of some of these drugs that are relied on regularly by people with lupus and other conditions.

As the virus spread to Europe and the United States, Gilead said emergency requests had "flooded an emergency treatment access system that was set up for very limited access to investigational medicines and never intended for use in response to a pandemic."

Six clinical trials of remdesivir are underway around the world, and early results from trials in China could be announced by the end of next month. "By the time we get to the end of April, we should have a preliminary idea of the safety and efficacy of this medicine against coronavirus," said Daniel O'Day, Gilead's chief executive, in a news conference earlier this month.

Mr. Allard was tested Tuesday for the coronavirus, but the sample was sent to Quest Diagnostics, and his mother said the hospital never received the results.

As the week went on, Mr. Allard's condition rapidly declined, Ms. Allard said. He was placed in a medically induced coma and put on a ventilator. Ms. Allard said his doctors wanted to try remdesivir, but they needed to have a confirmed positive test showing he had the illness caused by the virus before they could seek the drug from Gilead. Finally, after the family made a flurry of calls to elected officials and others, the hospital tested him again on Saturday and received the results from another laboratory in less than six hours.

His results came back positive and that night around 10:30 the doctor submitted her request to Gilead. By the next morning, Ms. Allard said, she was hearing that Gilead was shifting to a new system, and news stories later on Sunday confirmed her fears.

His doctor has submitted another request under the new system, but Ms. Allard now fears his treatment will be delayed. Ms. Allard said the doctor had previously treated another patient with remdesivir and the turnaround time for approval had been 48 hours.

"I feel as if we are in regulatory limbo," Ms. Allard said. "We were good, we were following the rules, he was queued up for what the rules were as of Saturday night and we woke up Sunday and everything changed."

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YNWA_AG said:

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Is this a good thing?

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It's a supply issue

The futures opened up.

Topher17 said:

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I have about ~$1000 in a taxable mutual fund account that I opened when I first started investing in college. It is currently right at about even. Should I sell out of that account and roll the $$ into my Roth IRA to lower the cost basis of my IRA, or just leave it and contribute to the IRA as normal? I have not invested any new money in the taxable account since opening the IRA/getting a 401k through work.

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Topher, my recommendations:

1. Make sure you have your "emergency fund" properly funded. Most say 3 months of expenses. I'm more conservative than most and like to have not only 4-6 months... but of income (instead of expenses). I think the sweet spot is somewhere in the middle however you want to look at it.

2. Are you properly insured: Health insurance, life insurance, disability insurance?

3. Do you have any high interest debt that should be reviewed or paid down?

***Note, the above is super boring but cannot be overlooked. They are the foundational pieces to any financial plan. Get them in place (and review it when life events happen) and then build on top of it.


After that's been addressed then:

4. Do you have any short/mid-term goals where you might want to access the funds. I.e. buying a house or something. Maintaining a taxable account and growing that would be a good tool. Without overlooking retirement, it's important to build your liquid accounts too.

5. If there isn't anything pressing and you feel very comfortable with your cash and debt position, my personal absolute favorite is the Roth IRA. I'm assuming you're fairly young, qualify for it, and have many many years for it to grow. My Roth IRA is the first thing I address every year. Max that sucker out man.

Trump is setting the stage to reopen most of the country very shortly...I believe the market has baked in a much longer down period.

Going all in if we hit the 1800s on the S&P

Uh, how did we miss ZS dropping to 35 and then popping up to 58 in a few days? Wow

ranchag04 said:

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It's not going to be a vaccine....that's next year...it's going to be therapeutic treatment which we are starting to see some good news on.

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Ok good, I'm all for good news at this point.

I'm going to ask a question differently that I hard a day or so ago.

Wouldn't now be a good time to try and harvest some losses?

Not liquidate everything, just a portion of a portfolio. If market continues to go down you can rebuy cheaper in 30 days. If market stays relatively even, you can rebuy "even" after 30 days - realize losses for tax purposes in both cases. If we are in fact at the bottom and market goes up, it's unlikely to rebound 25-30% in one single month. But that's the risk I guess. Even if it does and you only sell your largest loss holdings you're at break even but get to realize losses.

Wish me luck I guess. Or talk me out of it!

The market is coiled tight and an explosion, not to new highs, is imminent. I'm positioning myself with your model T formation in mind for my exit point on my longer term calls. I've been accumulating the 7/17 calls on DIS, ROKU, and RH over the last few days.

Grown Pear said:

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I'm going to ask a question differently that I hard a day or so ago.

Wouldn't now be a good time to try and harvest some losses?

Not liquidate everything, just a portion of a portfolio. If market continues to go down you can rebuy cheaper in 30 days. If market stays relatively even, you can rebuy "even" after 30 days - realize losses for tax purposes in both cases. If we are in fact at the bottom and market goes up, it's unlikely to rebound 25-30% in one single month. But that's the risk I guess. Even if it does and you only sell your largest loss holdings you're at break even but get to realize losses.

Wish me luck I guess. Or talk me out of it!

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Imo it has to be based on what stocks you're referring to. Are they the bigs, like AMZN, DIS, AAPL, etc? Or are they ones in depressed industries facing huge obstacles? List what you have in mind, then we can offer more sound advice.

Anyone watch wheat prices? I saw some news last week that China has now started buying wheat to take advantage of cheap shipping rates.

I think most of that (potentially more than warranted) is already priced in.

Prognightmare said:

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The market is coiled tight and an explosion, not to new highs, is imminent. I'm positioning myself with your model T formation in mind for my exit point on my longer term calls. I've been accumulating the 7/17 calls on DIS, ROKU, and RH over the last few days.

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agree 110%. I see evidence in this already in some names. SPCE really wants to rip, like a chained up rocket right now. Can't wait to ride it back to $30

also model T on SPY, where would that put us? 278 is what I get on some back of napkin math.

Grown Pear said:

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Quoted wrong post on accident.

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Prognightmare said:

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Grown Pear said:

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I'm going to ask a question differently that I hard a day or so ago.

Wouldn't now be a good time to try and harvest some losses?

Not liquidate everything, just a portion of a portfolio. If market continues to go down you can rebuy cheaper in 30 days. If market stays relatively even, you can rebuy "even" after 30 days - realize losses for tax purposes in both cases. If we are in fact at the bottom and market goes up, it's unlikely to rebound 25-30% in one single month. But that's the risk I guess. Even if it does and you only sell your largest loss holdings you're at break even but get to realize losses.

Wish me luck I guess. Or talk me out of it!

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Imo it has to be based on what stocks you're referring to. Are they the bigs, like AMZN, DIS, AAPL, etc? Or are they ones in depressed industries facing huge obstacles? List what you have in mind, then we can offer more sound advice.

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Similar strategy is alternate some positions. Like energy stocks for example. I luckily sold XOM last month at around 57 and can get back in it on Wednesday. I shifted a little into CVX and energy ETFs. Shift back towards XOM and liquidate some CVX under same strategy. Granted that's a small concentrated 2 company play but I feel like you could play that game and diversify among more companies. If they start to rebound you're still exposed.

ETA - looking at different ETFs you might be able to leverage the ones that have more exposure to XOM than others. I didn't look into that, but I don't believe that violates wash sale rules. sector funds/etfs love them the big blue chips like you're talking about

I can see taking the tax loss (benefit) and waiting because I don't suspect it will be one to rocket higher. Selling a stock like XOM and buying an energy ETF shouldn't trigger the wash sale rule, but check with your tax person.

Bottom won't be in until after consumption recession numbers print. Vanguard is still having inflows. There has been no capitulation, and no cash crunch on Main Street - YET. There will be. We are 1.5 months into this recession..... The timeline for getting to 3300 is years.

ROKU isn't waiting around. $94

Agreed

Futures bright green so far

gougler08 said:

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Futures bright green so far

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Shhhh. No body sneeze.

Senate adjourned for the night. They are going to reconvene tomorrow morning. They have to unanimously decide to move the bill forward. If they don't there will be another majority vote on Wednesday.

badharambe said:

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Currently have uvxy call (this week $100) and a tsla put (this week 340)

Looking for break of trend and oil/cruise ships/airplanes stabilizing before looking for bullish bounce play they have been the market leader until now and then getting strength to the upside is key, there have been hints at the end of last week. Ideally, this trend line gets touched or broken by $spy and we see some panic we can take long.

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Not much panic but oil, cruise ships and airplanes all stable today and seem to confirm their turns for now. Look to buy dips tomorrow