SPY is trading tight right now.

All A&M said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Good lawd, this trader on CNBC says he's buying SPY 105 and sees DJIA 10000-12500.

I don't see it but damn.

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Saw it too. I dont know about SPY 105, but I think there is a lot of complacency currently in the market. People act like the prices back in February are the base case. Those were all time highs with CAPE ratios very high (only dot.com was higher). I see the market falling a lot more from where it is today. And for those talking down that amateur investor, there were several professional money managers on that same show that see the market going much lower with many bankruptcies. If you think the taxpayers will do bailouts, you would be correct (like GM to keep jobs). If you think taxpayers will protect stockholders and bondholders at Boeing, Cruise lines, Hotels, Airlines, etc, you are in denial. And this event is worse than 2008. Much worse. The Fed is even buying Munis now. First time ever. Some believe the Fed will start buying corporate bonds soon. Lots of complacency of traders just comparing current prices to February.

Disclosure: I'm currently 40% Equities

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I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

You have to name what your intentions are. I'm not trying to pick the bottom for LT holds. A TON of money is made during corrections due to the volatility. That's what I'm doing. I'm playing the waves for a few points, get in and get out. We may go to 10000 but there will be many vicious spikes and valleys where money will be made. When I list a buy, it's safe to assume my max hold time is 72 hours.

Prognightmare said:

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All A&M said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Good lawd, this trader on CNBC says he's buying SPY 105 and sees DJIA 10000-12500.

I don't see it but damn.

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Saw it too. I dont know about SPY 105, but I think there is a lot of complacency currently in the market. People act like the prices back in February are the base case. Those were all time highs with CAPE ratios very high (only dot.com was higher). I see the market falling a lot more from where it is today. And for those talking down that amateur investor, there were several professional money managers on that same show that see the market going much lower with many bankruptcies. If you think the taxpayers will do bailouts, you would be correct (like GM to keep jobs). If you think taxpayers will protect stockholders and bondholders at Boeing, Cruise lines, Hotels, Airlines, etc, you are in denial. And this event is worse than 2008. Much worse. The Fed is even buying Munis now. First time ever. Some believe the Fed will start buying corporate bonds soon. Lots of complacency of traders just comparing current prices to February.

Disclosure: I'm currently 40% Equities

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I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

You have to name what your intentions are. I'm not trying to pick the bottom for LT holds. A TON of money is made during corrections due to the volatility. That's what I'm doing. I'm playing the waves for a few points, get in and get out. We may go to 10000 but there will be many vicious spikes and valleys where money will be made. When I list a buy, it's safe to assume my max hold time is 72 hours.

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Both of you are correct.

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Disney brings Onward to digital March 20, Disney+ on April 3
Today 1:33 PM ET (MarketWatch)

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is bringing Onward to a small screen near you. The Pixar animated movie will be available to buy digitally and via Movies Anywhere for $19.99 starting at 8 p.m. ET Friday. It premieres on the Disney+ streaming service April 3 in the U.S. Onward, which was released in theaters in early March, is the latest movie to be made available for digital rental or streaming amid an unprecedented closure of cinemas across the globe because of the coronavirus outbreak.

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If you have small kids this is a good movie. I took my son to see it last week.

I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

Know anything about ECPG?

That one hit an alert for me today.

Seems the Fed is hellbent on having 0 bank failures. They're buying treasuries, mbs's, and now muni's so they have cash as customers draw our their LOC's or defer payments.

I would be perfectly fine holding regional or local bank equity through this.

Have not heard of them.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Know anything about ECPG?

That one hit an alert for me today.

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Y'all are worthless...

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Ok. Ok. Here.

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Encore Capital Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries form the largest publicly traded debt buyer by revenue in the United States.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encore_Capital_Group#cite_note-2][2][/url] It has operations and investments in 15 countries. Encore's subsidiaries purchase portfolios of consumer receivables from major banks, credit unions, commercial retailers, and telecommunications companies, and work with individuals to repay their debts.

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Please don't share. Copyrighted by Wikipedia.



A little levity to a jacked-up week.

SPX dumping to 2350. Not looking great for any kind of end of week rally.

Pignorant said:

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I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

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I'm with you. I work for a community bank and we are better capitalized than ever. I have been investing in cadence since they IPO'ed. Unfortunately, my cost basis is $19 or so...but i'm adding a lot of shares around $5-$6. Short of global meltdown, they are worth a lot more than that.

Pignorant said:

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I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

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With them being based in Houston, are they potentially more exposed to failing oil/gas firms though?

cgh1999 said:

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Pignorant said:

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I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

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I'm with you. I work for a community bank and we are better capitalized than ever. I have been investing in cadence since they IPO'ed. Unfortunately, my cost basis is $19 or so...but i'm adding a lot of shares around $5-$6. Short of global meltdown, they are worth a lot more than that.

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Ok, that's 2 different posters in the industry that know about them. That's good enough for me. Just added them to my watch list. Thanks

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...and work with individuals to repay their debts.

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That's one way to say we will call the individual 6 times an hour and then call their relatives after the individual dies.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

OverSeas AG said:

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Spaceship said:

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Pignorant said:

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I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

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With them being based in Houston, are they potentially more exposed to failing oil/gas firms though?

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I could see in someways that could be good... as maybe many people will be seeking loans to help them get through some tough times. Obviously if they gave out too many risky loans... or had too many defaults.

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Any loan linked to O&G is a risky loan on this climate

anyone else with puts expiring next week/week and half holding over the weekend? I have 3/27 and 3/30 SPY $220Ps that i was able to pick up cheap on upswings. Hesitant to hold anything over the weekend, but the puts maybe double from where they are now if more negative news hits over the weekend.

edit: probably not double.. didn't take into account time decay on these. still new/learning this... will probably try to exit on any drop in the next hour

Spaceship said:

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Pignorant said:

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I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

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With them being based in Houston, are they potentially more exposed to failing oil/gas firms though?

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As best I can tell, they have ~6-8% energy exposure. The majority is midstream and downstream.

I'm gambling on a straight SPY put over the weekend. Have not locked in yet but was looking at $225.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Ballsy, those premiums are insane. I looked at the 225 for next friday. Good luck mate.

cgh1999 said:

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Spaceship said:

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Pignorant said:

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I work for a community bank. You make a good point that banks are well capitalized compared to previous recessions.

Most are anywhere from 10%-12% of Tier 1 Capital.

I am eyeing CADE (Cadence Bank) down here around $5.

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With them being based in Houston, are they potentially more exposed to failing oil/gas firms though?

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As best I can tell, they have ~6-8% energy exposure. The majority is midstream and downstream.

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Full disclosure for those considering investing here - Cadence has taken a hit prior to this crisis because they have invested heavily in PE, Restaurant, and M&A lending. They have had some softness in all of those areas which dropped them from ~$30/share to $17/$18. If you've listened to their quarterly calls, they believe the initial losses were outliers and that they are well positioned with the rest of their portfolio. I tend to agree and have continued to invest (and lose my butt). But, i'm still buying.

My thesis at this point is in a WORST case scenario (which I do not envision happening in any way, shape or form) that they are a highly attractive acquisition target because of their expansive branch network throughout the Southeast. When Wachovia was considered doa, Wells Fargo still paid $7/share for them.

The only problem with banks in general is that with the Fed dropping rates so low, our profitability will be severely hampered even when the world begins to recover from Corona virus. So, while i'm still buying shares in certain banks, the majority of my funds are going elsewhere because I believe other sectors will fly up first when this recovers. I'll take a 20%+ pop in other sectors and then come back and buy more banks.

Indeed. It's moved 3 pts since my post! have a 2:30 bank deadline to hit before I can really focus on it so if I have to back out I will.

We gonna get another rally the last 15 minutes like we have the last 3 Friday's? Or look out below?

CME Clearing firm Ronin Capital failed due to being upside down on VIX trades. Portfolio already auctioned off.

Thank you but I'm still going to watch it awhile.

Boat Shoes said:

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We gonna get another rally the last 15 minutes like we have the last 3 Friday's? Or look out below?

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I think it's lookout below

AgOutsideAustin said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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We gonna get another rally the last 15 minutes like we have the last 3 Friday's? Or look out below?

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I think it's lookout below

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It's look out below - states will stagger announcing "shelter in place" / lockdowns the same way California did.

IL is announcing Saturday

Was hoping Disney would hit 85 a share today. Also have an order for cbrl in at 65. Bought some XOM and wfc on the dip earlier as a starting position. I am not allowed to trade options unfortunately

Have been buying VTI, AVGO, HFC, and V