The back end of the oil strip is down 3-4% today. Gas also down the same as well as the prompt month.
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 11 hrs ago by Bibendum 86
Drillbit4 said:
Oil stocks are getting crushed today but WTI is relatively flat. I assume recession fears, but did a specific report come out?
Stock market is closed due to federal holiday on Friday. So it's hard to know how the market is really viewing news.
Markets are closed today
I see a couple of storylines. This economy has everyone jumping to the third act of the recession story. Where recessions always end with oil and gas taking a huge nosedive. There are some people who have made large gains the last two years playing the run up. Just taking cash off the table from winners. Just a lot of people pulling cash out to pad their reserves as well.
I think we're a little early trading Q2 rumors. During Q1 dividend announcements, the market wanted to see eye bulging dividends, but they got debt pay down, hedging excuses, and cost increases. So I think the market right now is going, 'there's always something with OG, they can never find a way to return serious capital when times are good.' (Disregard the huge amounts of pain from COVID, this being the first good quarter, etc)
All the investor decks I've seen have stuff like $80 WTI and $3.20 gas assumptions. Looking forward to some quarterly announcements that show profits at 120 WTI and 8.50 gas. Look to your canadian oil sands and shale leaders to be the most unhedged and quickest return of capital.
As we get closer to Q2 announcement I think you're going to see money come back into the oil gas market as the first rumor hits and then the first announcement shows like 15% dividend. Hamm's tender to take Continental private had people finally doing obvious back of the envelope calculations that showed Hamm would pay his whole company off inside 2 years at the current oil prices. Thats a long term concern for shale players. That they'd just rather go private and insulate themselves from activist boardrooms.
I think we're a little early trading Q2 rumors. During Q1 dividend announcements, the market wanted to see eye bulging dividends, but they got debt pay down, hedging excuses, and cost increases. So I think the market right now is going, 'there's always something with OG, they can never find a way to return serious capital when times are good.' (Disregard the huge amounts of pain from COVID, this being the first good quarter, etc)
All the investor decks I've seen have stuff like $80 WTI and $3.20 gas assumptions. Looking forward to some quarterly announcements that show profits at 120 WTI and 8.50 gas. Look to your canadian oil sands and shale leaders to be the most unhedged and quickest return of capital.
As we get closer to Q2 announcement I think you're going to see money come back into the oil gas market as the first rumor hits and then the first announcement shows like 15% dividend. Hamm's tender to take Continental private had people finally doing obvious back of the envelope calculations that showed Hamm would pay his whole company off inside 2 years at the current oil prices. Thats a long term concern for shale players. That they'd just rather go private and insulate themselves from activist boardrooms.
I know XOM's original Guyana growth plans and general capital allocations were at well below $80 WTI. I'm sure they will do well being less exposed to supply chain and political games in America.
I think they have a third FPSO coming online in like 2 years and a 2md one coming online this year. Cha ching
Speaking of, WildEarth Guardians just sued under various acts (primarily NEPA) requesting injunctive relief on over 3,000 federal permits. Some irony that they use federal grant money to sue the federal government. Not so funny when it will continue to hammer the poor. That said, long XOM. 
Getting headlines cause it impacts the Permian, but these guys file numerous lawsuits every year (they forum shop, like they did here) and they always use federal money to do it. Racket that has been going on for a couple of decades now, and it will never stop unless the structure is changed. The people who are paid to do work for the groups are incentivized to file ever-increasing numbers of these lawsuits.
Oil getting murdered this morning....
Yah- down 15% in one week is aggressive.
cone said:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/did-russian-hackers-blow-up-a-texas-lng-pipeline
spicy
Honestly wouldn't surprise me. The timing (right before Russia cuts off gas to Europe is just way too convenient.
i've been trying to imagine how they lost containment in the rundown line
i hope we get something like a CSB video explainer
i hope we get something like a CSB video explainer
and this is why the DoD cares when you want to have controllers on gas systems that have any level of remote access to controlGordo14 said:cone said:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/did-russian-hackers-blow-up-a-texas-lng-pipeline
spicy
Honestly wouldn't surprise me. The timing (right before Russia cuts off gas to Europe is just way too convenient.
cone said:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/did-russian-hackers-blow-up-a-texas-lng-pipeline
spicy
I'm not buying it. The event was brought under control very quickly. I'm still betting on thermal expansion of something blocked in leading to a rupture and release. Interesting theory though, and not out of the realm of possibility.
I am with you. To cause an event that results in a loss of containment is one thing. To cause an event that leads to failure of relief devices and a vapor cloud that ignites by static electricity in the gulf coast environment and for that subsequent fire to cause enough damage to shut a plant down for months is another.Ogre09 said:cone said:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/did-russian-hackers-blow-up-a-texas-lng-pipeline
spicy
I'm not buying it. The event was brought under control very quickly. I'm still betting on thermal expansion of something blocked in leading to a rupture and release. Interesting theory though, and not out of the realm of possibility.
well clearly the layers of protection were defeated
this thing should have been HAZOP'd within the last ten years for sure. it just got commissioned for export.
does anyone know if the loss of containment was between the trains and the tanks or between the tanks and the jetty?
this thing should have been HAZOP'd within the last ten years for sure. it just got commissioned for export.
does anyone know if the loss of containment was between the trains and the tanks or between the tanks and the jetty?
Physically it was between the 2 tanks. Don't know if it was incoming or outgoing line.
Something clearly went wrong to cause the rupture and leak. Something went right to limit the leak amount.
Something clearly went wrong to cause the rupture and leak. Something went right to limit the leak amount.
i can tell you from much experience that HAZOPs don't catch every scenario. thermal expansion stuff is easy to miss. even easier when you are talking about transient operating modes and not "normal operation"cone said:
well clearly the layers of protection were defeated
this thing should have been HAZOP'd within the last ten years for sure. it just got commissioned for export.
does anyone know if the loss of containment was between the trains and the tanks or between the tanks and the jetty?
preaching to the choir
What is causing high gasoline prices? I get that demand is up significantly with Covid restrictions ending. Is the bottleneck at crude production, refining capacity, or both? Are we exporting too much crude or refined products to cover European demand replacing Russia? I saw US refining capacity decreased significantly with permanent closures during Covid demand drops in 2020-2021. And obviously crude prices are up.
Interested in data, not political opinions.
Interested in data, not political opinions.
Ogre09 said:
What is causing high gasoline prices? I get that demand is up significantly with Covid restrictions ending. Is the bottleneck at crude production, refining capacity, or both? Are we exporting too much crude or refined products to cover European demand replacing Russia? I saw US refining capacity decreased significantly with permanent closures during Covid demand drops in 2020-2021. And obviously crude prices are up.
Interested in data, not political opinions.
Top 3 countries for gasoline production/exports are US, China, Russia. The west is basically refusing Russian gasoline and China has curtailed exports to save for home market. Global supply for importing western nations is down. Demand for US exports is up, increases price.
US production is down due to permanent closures during COVID. I would not say significantly relative to total production.
Exports.
We took a swordfish trip out of port A last Thursday. There were 15-20 tankers staged for the first few miles out. All anchored up. Is that normal backlog?
Cody
Fightin Texas Aggie c/o 04
Fightin Texas Aggie c/o 04
While we're on the topic of gasoline, I'd be interested to hear thoughts on Nacero. Nacero plans to build facilities which input pipeline natural gas and output gasoline. They've been planning a $6 billion facility in the Permian for about 4 years now.
https://nacero.co/products
https://nacero.co/products
CaptnCarl said:
While we're on the topic of gasoline, I'd be interested to hear thoughts on Nacero. Nacero plans to build facilities which input pipeline natural gas and output gasoline. They've been planning a $6 billion facility in the Permian for about 4 years now.
https://nacero.co/products
Economics would be interesting with Nat Gas prices as high as they are now.
dahouse said:
We took a swordfish trip out of port A last Thursday. There were 15-20 tankers staged for the first few miles out. All anchored up. Is that normal backlog?
It isn't necessarily a backlog. They could be waiting for lightering operations, bunkers, loading orders etc etc. The GOM is one of the busiest lightering areas in the world, if not the busiest, with something like 1000 lightering operations happening each year. It's an insanely busy area for tankers.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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With liquids pricing and demand this high, maybe they are forecasting return to massive negative gas differentials in parts of the Permian if development jumps back up? That does seem like a significant price risk for large capital investment though.
dahouse said:
We took a swordfish trip out of port A last Thursday. There were 15-20 tankers staged for the first few miles out. All anchored up. Is that normal backlog?
Not necessarily oil / gas. Lots of feedstock for everything from rubber to chemicals come in tankers. Goodyear tire does like a tanker week or 2 and they pull from a storage facility shared by lots of companies.
Bob Knights Liver said:
With liquids pricing and demand this high, maybe they are forecasting return to massive negative gas differentials in parts of the Permian if development jumps back up? That does seem like a significant price risk for large capital investment though.
I think the market has priced this in for Q1-Q2 next year if you look at waha fwd curve (just basing this off memory right now). At these oil prices I doubt it'll hold back liquids development in the Permian much, but it could definitely be a longer term drag on cash flow.
My wife and her company, Schneider Downs, is looking for someone in the industry to interview about high gas prices. This would be a video interview they would put on social media and send their clients. They do videos on a number of different things like art as an investment, stuff like that.
It'd be great if one of you could be the interviewee and shed some light on the issues. She knows the rise in gas prices isn't just Ukraine and that is often a scapegoat for many things so she would like to provide a perspective that is different from what her clients hear in the news.
It'd be great if one of you could be the interviewee and shed some light on the issues. She knows the rise in gas prices isn't just Ukraine and that is often a scapegoat for many things so she would like to provide a perspective that is different from what her clients hear in the news.
Gas getting crushed again today on safety concerns from PHMSA in Freeport
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-regulator-finds-unsafe-155955219.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-regulator-finds-unsafe-155955219.html
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