Comeby! said:

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Gas getting crushed again today on safety concerns from PHMSA in Freeport

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-regulator-finds-unsafe-155955219.html

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Figures a federal agent would take a month just to issue an edict to halt all repair operations until studies are done. Obviously no agenda.

EDIT: PHMSA falls under the Department of Transportation, which is run by Pete Buttigieg. Going to leave it at that.

Birdbear said:

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Motis B Totis said:

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Oasis & Whiting merger complete -> Chord Energy
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/whiting-and-oasis-complete-combination-establishing-chord-energy-301579674.html

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Kind of annoying that all of these merged company names are super generic and have to have some kind of symbolic meaning attached to them

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Direct result of too many consultants.

Production growth is muted as you're fighting against pretty significant declines, investments have been short cycle and you do not have large conventional assets coming online outside of the Exxon stuff in South America.

You have pretty significant headwinds in the L48 supply chain to get operations online as well with new development. The other thing is that we've drilled alot of our good stuff and people are drilling up their 2/3rd inventory.

sushi94 said:

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Big question in the market is with all the rigs added back in the last 12 to 14 months - why is production growth muted compared to expectations.

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The question is obviously a very complicated one. This is not meant to be an answer but just a few items I've seen in the Lower-48 activity as I've reviewed the data from the last couple of years:

(1) Approximately 100 of the active rigs right now are drilling vertical/directional wells. About 95% of these are being drilled by private operators (includes private and private equity)

(2) Wells spud in the January 2021 time frame for private operators averaged ~400 spuds per month. Recent months in 2022 shows an increase to ~800 spuds per months for privates. Publics went from ~500 to ~590 spuds per month during the same period.

Key notes when combining (1) and (2)? Privates have doubled their activity whereas publics have only modestly grown. However, of the wells spud over this time period for privates, ~45% were drilled as vertical/directional.

(3) Reviewing only horizontal spuds, ~67% of wells were oil (based on what is reported to the state) vs 33% gas. Private/public was surprisingly similar in breakdown between oil/gas wells.

Although total rig count is increasing, there is a good proponent of vertical/directional wells and HZ wells with gas as primary phase.

(4) Public activity in 1Q 2020 had ~80% of HZ oil activity in the Permian, Eagle Ford or Williston. In 1Q 2022, those 3 basins made up ~95% of HZ oil activity. Privates have been and continue to be much more diverse in the portfolio being drilled (includes the same 3 from publics but also PRB, DJ, Uinta, etc.).

Public companies that are major contributers to Lower-48 production hold the best acreage in the three most active basins but their activity has only minimally increased over the last 1.5 years. Privates have increased their activity substantially but it is has generally been in worse reservoir (either fringe acreage in Permian, eagle ford or Williston or in a currently non-premier basin).

(5) There are a couple major public operators who have active horizontal oil rigs going but aren't completing wells at anywhere close to the same pace (not going to name anyone, but the data can be found).

This suggests rig count isn't always the most meaningful metric.



Just my 2 cents.