I spent all of 30 seconds thinking about it.

Historically cyclical market. Times of higher prices always followed by lower prices.

At some point I expect dumb money to return and increase drilling and production to create another bust.

Dirty Mike and the Boys said:

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Phys gas was fairly weak for today's cash session relative to what this event could possibly bring to the S&D picture.

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With LNG exploding I feel the days of depressed gas are gone. With nat gas now considered part of the green transition demand is only going higher.

Anyone here going to NAPE?

2022 - $95 - Lack of investment last 2 years mitigated by Covid regulations ($100 in 4Q2022 possible)
2023 - $87 - Price support from ease of Covid regulations but increased 2022 drilling
2024 - $75 - Increase in supply 2H 2022 capex campaign chasing $100+ forecast
2025 - $70
2026 - $65 - Demand continues to increase but 2023-2024 sanctioned projects add significant supply
Wash, rinse, repeat.

I believe that global demand continues to grow despite growing anti-fossil fuel regulations in many developed nations.

Disclosure: Midstream lead in global O&G major; Views are my own

AustinAg008 said:

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Dirty Mike and the Boys said:

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Phys gas was fairly weak for today's cash session relative to what this event could possibly bring to the S&D picture.

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With LNG exploding I feel the days of depressed gas are gone. With nat gas now considered part of the green transition demand is only going higher.

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Yes, but we have an abundance and could very easily turn on the spigot and exceed US demand. Expected production this year will average 96 bcf/day of only dry. Lng export MAY be 13 bcf/day at peak. We're talking 11 or 12% of total ng production.

Most producers can go broke bf LNG truly provides the takeaway to reduce risk of over production.

Those gassy oil boys will make it hard.

Dear lord, I've never seen any group of companies collectively pat themselves on the back without actually committing to do anything real.

Link to Article: Leading Companies Launch Initiative to Support Low-Carbon and Hydrogen Industrial Hub in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia

The actual "bean counters" are usually cursing the changes just as much. Their carefully constructed budget is left in shambles after someone makes wildly optimistic promises to the market / investors and everyone has to scramble to concoct a last-minute plan that in some low-probability version of reality could result in that financial outcome.

Wiggletrace said:

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Anyone here going to NAPE?

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Probably.

Wiggletrace said:

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Anyone here going to NAPE?

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Yeah ill be down there.

Quote:

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I believe that global demand continues to grow despite growing anti-fossil fuel regulations in many developed nations.

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I am not an O&G professional. I'm here because I'm an investor in two Midstream companies (EPD and MMP). I enjoy reading this thread because of the information it provides.

Recently, one of my older brother's passed away. He never married, never had children so his estate was split between his surviving siblings. I haven't moved my portion of what I received, and they're managed by a Merrill Lynch broker in South Florida.

We had an introductory call a couple of weeks ago and he mentioned that M.L. is bullish on three business sectors in 2022: Financials, Health Care, and Energy. ML's position for energy in 2022 is essentially your words to a 'T' The other comment I recall is there are too many items we rely on that are petroleum based, which the Green folks haven't considered.

WTI just crossed $90. Better call and get my new king Ranch edition on order.

Natural gas sucks at the moment. What was the consensus draw on storage? Guessing the 268 Bcf draw missed substantially?

BCG Disciple said:

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AustinAg008 said:

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Dirty Mike and the Boys said:

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Phys gas was fairly weak for today's cash session relative to what this event could possibly bring to the S&D picture.

---

With LNG exploding I feel the days of depressed gas are gone. With nat gas now considered part of the green transition demand is only going higher.

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Yes, but we have an abundance and could very easily turn on the spigot and exceed US demand. Expected production this year will average 96 bcf/day of only dry. Lng export MAY be 13 bcf/day at peak. We're talking 11 or 12% of total ng production.

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Where are you getting the 13 Bcf/day at peak? According to this EIA report, expected LNG export capacity will be almost 14 Bcf/day with just the 2022 projects completed with projects in various stages of approval for another 25 Bcf/day (those will take years, of course).

topher06 said:

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Natural gas sucks at the moment. What was the consensus draw on storage? Guessing the 268 Bcf draw missed substantially?

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Combo of a bearish storage w/d # today, a complete failure in the phys cash market for this current winter weather event, and fairly meh look for the rest of Feb on the forecast models.

*Aramco Sale Would Be as Much as 2.5% of Company at Current Valuation -- WSJ

*Plan Pushed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman--Source -- WSJ

*Aramco Wants to Sell Shares This Year or by Early 2023--Source -- WSJ https://t.co/fiRrAg6SHY

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 4, 2022

They saw the rebound in Exxon and Chevron stock and decided they wanted a piece of that.

Gonna get a part time gig in super duty sales for next two months.

Last time they tried this I thought the Saudis didn't like the valuation the auditor showed.
Any investor is basically gambling on the governance of a nation state as well as oil and gas.

Touche

Yep, prices are ridiculous and there's no negotiating. I've been looking at new cars for my wife, and used cars are going for $10k over MSRP for a similar new car. It's ridiculous. We don't "need" a new car, so willing to wait for now. We've placed an order for a new car with a dealer that will accept some discounts, but it may be 6-9 months.

I just sold my 2019 atlas fresh off a blown head gasket repair for more than we bought it for after putting 20k miles on it. Thank god my wife has a client who owns a dealership so we could replace it.

I was considering selling my 2017 F250 with 75,000 miles. I could sell it for very close to break even for what I paid in 2017.

Ugh - I need to buy a truck and have been putting it off. Can probably wait a few(4-5) more months at the most. At this point Im just trying to not overpay too much.

Order one. Its the best way to not get taken to the cleaners from what I have been gathering. Although there is a thread on the auto board discussing the impending pop of the used market bubble

Link to auto thread? I looked but couldn't find it.

https://texags.com/forums/46/topics/3270398