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Houston..we have a problem....

7,315,536 Views | 28750 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by Bibendum 86
topher06
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MAROON said:

no back office means built in excuse to slow pay vendors
Feel like the BP Argentina outsourcing is an even better excuse to not only slow pay vendors, but f over partners at every turn. Just blame problems with translation and massive staff turnover. But hey - BP saves money by not paying workers and not paying partners/vendors.
sts7049
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AG
did you mean Angostura?
DripAG08
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Cyp0111 said:

Let's be clear. Engineers are terrible capital allocators.


There a few bad apples out there like most industries.
GCRanger
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slavy06 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-judge-annuls-gulf-mexico-oil-lease-sale-over-climate-impact-2022-01-28/

Federal judge decides to cancel the November lease sale in the GOM. Any lawyer types care to share some insight on how that would be within his bounds?

I'm in IT but support the exploration teams that work lease sale. A ton of time and money goes into preparing for lease sale from all kinds of different teams. Everyone on the IT team that supports the software and tools for lease sale is pissed. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the exploration manager.

Possible countersuit if ruling upheld?
Comeby!
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sts7049 said:

did you mean Angostura?

No need to be bitter about it.
one MEEN Ag
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Cyp0111 said:

Let's be clear. Engineers are terrible capital allocators.
Well yeah and you're terrible at free body diagrams.

We just want to tinker and improve designs and get our budget approved. Now quit starving us of capital and let us get back to saving this company.

Since you're in finance, the engineers you see would primarily be reservoir and other PTEs. Your meen, civil, or aero with an MBA is probably doing just fine avoiding dry holes and not staring at their own feet while talking.

Also I think this is funny because on twitter all of the oil/gas leaning accounts just absolutely rip on A&M as a whole for being terrible allocators. Cyp's laughing at engineers, and the industry laughs at A&M.
Cyp0111
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A&M is largely a poor capital allocator, A&M engineers are largely poor capital allocators and reason the joint program btw business school was put in place.

PeekingDuck
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XOM
JD Shellnut
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https://roanoke.com/news/local/mountain-valley-pipeline-loses-permit-to-cross-through-jefferson-national-forest/article_be1c56c8-7e03-11ec-9b97-371e2dc8c6c1.html

Another set back for this cursed project. I know a lot of guys were hopeful that this would be starting again soon.
Comeby!
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Cyp0111 said:

A&M is largely a poor capital allocator, A&M engineers are largely poor capital allocators and reason the joint program btw business school was put in place.




If A&M engineers are poor capital allocators, I'd hate to see how the other school engineers do at allocating capital.

Oh and get an Ag Tag.
Cyp0111
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All engineers are poor allocators (largely universal). Accountants are the best (im not an accountant).
SpreadsheetAg
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I'm not sure they're inherently poor at it (as if it's some character flaw) as opposed to they just wouldn't make it a priority. Most engineers are in roles where they are reactive and after serving in progressive functions of "fire fighting" it is hard to switch attitude and mentality to forecasting and investing. The engineers who rise up the ladder probably have some serious skins on the wall from solving major issues or successfully completing projects / operations.

It's only been recently in my industry that I've seen operations and finance teaming up to make forecasts and budgets for long term Planning... then oops! Market crash everyone bye bye, we'll let you know when accurate forecasting and investment is a priority again at the next conglomerated "Oil & Gas Co"...
birdman
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Joseph Parrish said:

Cyp0111 said:

Let's be clear. Engineers are terrible capital allocators.


Funny. I personally know more CEOs that are engineers than not. Makes a difference in this industry when you actually know how things work.
Nobody doubts they know how things work. We doubt a bunch of them know how to make a profit:
SpreadsheetAg
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Easy! Set your CM to 40% on Field Services and 90% on parts, then offer minuscule discounts to your friends, err customers, to make them feel like they're special!

Never get tricked into lump sum / fixed price maintenance. Everything charged on timesheets or day rates.
FarmerJohn
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Quote:

Never get tricked into lump sum / fixed price maintenance.
Hello GE!
one MEEN Ag
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birdman said:

Joseph Parrish said:

Cyp0111 said:

Let's be clear. Engineers are terrible capital allocators.


Funny. I personally know more CEOs that are engineers than not. Makes a difference in this industry when you actually know how things work.
Nobody doubts they know how things work. We doubt a bunch of them know how to make a profit:
Engineers are a wide gambit, and subject to just wanting to be left alone, given the resources to make it work and enjoy a middle class lifestyle while still making teeball practice.

Firing all the finance guys sinks a company immediately. Firing the engineers sinks a company eventually. If you've been watching the decline in engineering as a competency within american businesses over the last 30 years, you know who gets considered a value add and who is considered a cost.

Engineers who decide to get an MBA and learn how to read a balance sheet can offer a company leadership that those who haven't built the parts can't. But, most of just want to make teeball practice.
one MEEN Ag
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By the way, I completely agree with all these condemnations of engineers.

Both my wife and my boss gave the same review last year.

  • Can't estimate a project completion date to save their life
  • Can't stay on budget or hit a deadline
  • Always needs more tools to get the job done
  • Final product is exemplary and works great

I took all four comments as a badge of honor.
SpreadsheetAg
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one MEEN Ag said:

By the way, I completely agree with all these condemnations of engineers.

Both my wife and my boss gave the same review last year.

  • Can't estimate a project completion date to save their life
  • Can't stay on budget or hit a deadline
  • Always needs more tools to get the job done
  • Final product is exemplary and works great

I took all four comments as a badge of honor.


Take whatever you think it will cost and add 50%; then add another 50%

Take whatever time you think it will take and quadruple it; then add another 20%

Take your resource list and add 2 lines for unknown services - 1 will be a field project manager that you didn't think was worth the cost in the beginning; the other will be a scaffolding team or NDT Team
one MEEN Ag
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SpreadsheetAg said:

one MEEN Ag said:

By the way, I completely agree with all these condemnations of engineers.

Both my wife and my boss gave the same review last year.

  • Can't estimate a project completion date to save their life
  • Can't stay on budget or hit a deadline
  • Always needs more tools to get the job done
  • Final product is exemplary and works great

I took all four comments as a badge of honor.


Take whatever you think it will cost and add 50%; then add another 50%

Take whatever time you think it will take and quadruple it; then add another 20%

Take your resource list and add 2 lines for unknown services - 1 will be a field project manager that you didn't think was worth the cost in the beginning; the other will be a scaffolding team or NDT Team


I've heard this one for home projects and it hasn't proven me wrong yet.

Take whatever time you think it would take to complete a job, double it and bump the units up one.
One hour? Two days.
Two days? Four weeks.

This is the time it will truly take you to get a project 100% done, and done well while getting interrupted by kids, wife, work, and Home Depot trips. It's not a measure of man hours to get a job done, just how many hours pass by from start to actually finishing.
SpreadsheetAg
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That's a good one! I like it
fixer
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Cyp0111 said:

Let's be clear. Engineers are terrible capital allocators.
Not clear at all...I'd like to know more about your hypothesis here.
BrokeAssAggie
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WTI might break $90 today.
topher06
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Natural gas.. go go go
DripAG08
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Natural gas is taking no prisoners today!
BlackGoldAg2011
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one MEEN Ag said:

SpreadsheetAg said:

one MEEN Ag said:

By the way, I completely agree with all these condemnations of engineers.

Both my wife and my boss gave the same review last year.

  • Can't estimate a project completion date to save their life
  • Can't stay on budget or hit a deadline
  • Always needs more tools to get the job done
  • Final product is exemplary and works great

I took all four comments as a badge of honor.


Take whatever you think it will cost and add 50%; then add another 50%

Take whatever time you think it will take and quadruple it; then add another 20%

Take your resource list and add 2 lines for unknown services - 1 will be a field project manager that you didn't think was worth the cost in the beginning; the other will be a scaffolding team or NDT Team


I've heard this one for home projects and it hasn't proven me wrong yet.

Take whatever time you think it would take to complete a job, double it and bump the units up one.
One hour? Two days.
Two days? Four weeks.

This is the time it will truly take you to get a project 100% done, and done well while getting interrupted by kids, wife, work, and Home Depot trips. It's not a measure of man hours to get a job done, just how many hours pass by from start to actually finishing.
on home projects i used to be this way, but i learned a lesson a while back, that if i take the time to truly plan out every detail i can save a ton of time. i've done a couple of home projects where i was well enough planned out that I only made 1 trip to Lowe's and the amount of time savings were incredible. more than made up for the extra planning time.



on the note of engineers being bad financial allocators/planners, while i know its a mixed bag and some truly are bad at it, i'll throw out the other side just for perspective. as a facilities engineer, I am frequently asked to provide annual budgets for our facilities/production equipment work based on drill schedules where 80%+ of the wells don't even have surface locations decided. So i do my best to estimate costs, but if they move the pad from where i assumed it would go that could be a $400k+ price swing just in pipeline costs. then as a specific example, I put together a budget for some facility upgrades where we are bringing in some new wells to old facilities later this year. the schedule i budgeted on was based on being told 4 wells would go to one old facility and 5 would go into another. well while i'm out in the field doing walks to kick off upgrade construction i find out that the have moved the locations and added 2 wells so i now have 11 wells all going to one old facility. this took the upgrade work from a minor upgrade to a major overhaul that doubled the cost estimate for the area. so were the budget estimates i provided in the annual budget process garbage? sure were. but that was because the bean counters and financial planners move things around with no consideration for the fact that those things can have major impacts on the work that has to be done in the field. and don't get me wrong, i love those bean counters because my soul would wither and die if i had to do their job, but sometimes the engineers are bad at money because our assumptions in our budgeting are ruined by corporate "nimbleness".
[/rant]
BCG Disciple
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AustinAg008 said:

Natural gas is taking no prisoners today!

Projected "cold" days over the next 14 days went from 52 to 83 in national weather models. Most of it is in the 11-14 day models, which project 39 cold days. Incredibly volatile based on low likely weather models right now. Crazy times.

30% pop in less than a week. One slightly off storage report magnified volatility. Not sure what happens with storage tomorrow, but look out either direction.

Btw, mods were also briefly over 80 on Sunday when there was a run to the low 5s.
tamuags08
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Quote:

i've done a couple of home projects where i was well enough planned out that I only made 1 trip to Lowe's

Comeby!
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BCG Disciple said:

AustinAg008 said:

Natural gas is taking no prisoners today!

Projected "cold" days over the next 14 days went from 52 to 83 in national weather models. Most of it is in the 11-14 day models, which project 39 cold days. Incredibly volatile based on low likely weather models right now. Crazy times.

30% pop in less than a week. One slightly off storage report magnified volatility. Not sure what happens with storage tomorrow, but look out either direction.

Btw, mods were also briefly over 80 on Sunday when there was a run to the low 5s.


We are turning to the right on natty so I'm pretty happy with that.
Dirty Mike and the Boys
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Phys gas was fairly weak for today's cash session relative to what this event could possibly bring to the S&D picture.
Premium
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If you had to put an educated guess out there on WTI in 2022 - 2026, what would you choose as your average each year?

2022 - $
2023 - $
2024 - $
2025 - $
2026 - $
BlackGoldAg2011
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Premium said:

If you had to put an educated guess out there on WTI in 2022 - 2026, what would you choose as your average each year?

2022 - $
2023 - $
2024 - $
2025 - $
2026 - $
MAROON
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I'll play

2022 - $80
2023 - $70
2024 - $50
2025 - $40
2026 - $60
TxAg20
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2022 - $93
2023 - $101
2024 - $90
2025 - $50
2026 - $70
cajunaggie08
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SpreadsheetAg said:

Easy! Set your CM to 40% on Field Services and 90% on parts, then offer minuscule discounts to your friends, err customers, to make them feel like they're special!

Never get tricked into lump sum / fixed price maintenance. Everything charged on timesheets or day rates.
I was on a team that did that. The former engineer turned business leader who spearheaded this deal failed to realize half of the maintenance plans and half of the equipment he signed us up for. We were operating at a loss for a few years before we were able to get the customer back to the negotiating table. He wasn't an engineer that had worked on our product line until he joined the company in a management role.
Premium
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MAROON said:

I'll play

2022 - $80
2023 - $70
2024 - $50
2025 - $40
2026 - $60


What do you think makes it drop going forward, this year and next year, compared to where it's at today?
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