Oh i was talking about actual paper charts.

Sea Speed said:

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I'm sure there's an easier way but an up to date nautical chart should have them.

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That's what the pencil is used for.

Chart corrections

You should be able to get a printed chart updated with the latest notice to mariners and corrections if you want to see everything. There used to be a print on demand place in galveston and Houston. Probably in most large port cities

Anyone know much about Tilden/Rockdale in Marcellus ? Know they are filing soon but interested if anyone has any knowledge of wells etc in PA. You can DM me if you like. Thanks

Potential Wharton County Refinery

Any of y'all heard about/know details of this project? I'm not in the industry and don't have any knowledge of the people involved with the company. Just sounds like a lot of smoke and mirrors, and wouldn't be the first time the local government entities would have fallen for that type of thing.

CenterHillAg said:

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Potential Wharton County Refinery

Any of y'all heard about/know details of this project? I'm not in the industry and don't have any knowledge of the people involved with the company. Just sounds like a lot of smoke and mirrors, and wouldn't be the first time the local government entities would have fallen for that type of thing.

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Refinery seems like an odd choice, but I'm guessing not a whole lot of other businesses to attract that will invest big $$ into development of a piece of property significantly adding to the property tax base. I think a refinery carriers a big risk of it getting tied up in permitting and never really getting started.

If properly structured, the tax abatement simply refunds a portion of the property tax for the developed infrastructure. If you give a company an abatement of 1/2 the property tax increase and they build 5 billion dollars worth of improvements, the valuation of the property goes up by 5 billion dollars, the tax base goes up by 5 billion dollars, but they rebate the property tax on 2.5 billion, it is still the equivalent of increasing the tax base by 2.5 billion dollars. Not sure about Wharton county, but I'm guessing that would be a rather large increase in the tax revenue.

Don't know how this one is going to work out. I thought refineries are all in on unit scaling and having port access. And aren't new oil refineries banned since like the 70s? They have to be additions I thought. I would need to see what specific product they're delivering and how it can be delivered at a price competitiveness. If they can't build without a subsidy then it wasn't going to work in the first place, because that subsidy is going to wain off.

the capital dried up just as the companies were finally able to exclusively drill within cashflow.

JP_Losman said:

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the capital dried up just as the companies were finally able to exclusively drill within cashflow.

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Everything might work out if the price keeps going up.

the difference is this time around the companies are actually capable of drilling within cashflow.

in 2014 probably no shale company was capable of drilling within cashflow to keep production flat

JP_Losman said:

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the difference is this time around the companies are actually capable of drilling within cashflow.

in 2014 probably no shale company was capable of drilling within cashflow to keep production flat

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and the ones that couldn't figure it out, by and large no longer exist. and if we get another sustained oil price high, we will see a lot more companies set up shop that will be in the same boat and during the next slump, a couple may have made it work and survive, but the rest will get drug out back and put down just like this time. because everyone preaches capital discipline until you have $100 oil and 200% IRRs staring them in the face.

edit: I say as today's high price for WTI hits the highest it has been since 10/10/2014...

Game is different. No money to drill fringe acreage. Best remaining wells now

Cyp0111 said:

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Game is different. No money to drill fringe acreage. Best remaining wells now

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my question though is how long of >$80-$90 oil does it take before dumb money returns to O&G investing. my guess is that it happens faster than any of us would expect. because once the dumb money returns, we (as an industry) can go right back to drilling fringe acreage. Sure the smart ones drilling within cash flow wont, but dumb money makes dumb choices.

Are the shale companies replacing these higher quality reserves fast enough?

I see a map full of sticks in the best zones in most counties in the Permian. I wonder what
actual inventory of high return locations realistically looks like.

Multiple other zones may be prospective, but so far most haven't been as good as Wolfcamp A and B

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Cyp0111 said:

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Game is different. No money to drill fringe acreage. Best remaining wells now

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my question though is how long of >$80-$90 oil does it take before dumb money returns to O&G investing. my guess is that it happens faster than any of us would expect. because once the dumb money returns, we (as an industry) can go right back to drilling fringe acreage. Sure the smart ones drilling within cash flow wont, but dumb money makes dumb choices.

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I know this opinion got **** on last time, but I think it's entirely reasonable for companies to gradually increase capital spend at these prices. I don't think anybody should open the flood gates and ramp up to the crazy annual budgets we saw previously.

Joseph Parrish said:

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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Cyp0111 said:

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Game is different. No money to drill fringe acreage. Best remaining wells now

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my question though is how long of >$80-$90 oil does it take before dumb money returns to O&G investing. my guess is that it happens faster than any of us would expect. because once the dumb money returns, we (as an industry) can go right back to drilling fringe acreage. Sure the smart ones drilling within cash flow wont, but dumb money makes dumb choices.

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I know this opinion got **** on last time, but I think it's entirely reasonable for companies to gradually increase capital spend at these prices. I don't think anybody should open the flood gates and ramp up to the crazy annual budgets we saw previously.

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But can't you basically lock in these prices through hedging at least a few years out? Should make it easy to budget.

Other issue, besides budgets, is lead times. Even if you wanted to and had approval to start another rig, you're probably going to need 6 months to find casing, for example.

The steel market is absolutely bonkers right now. If anyone knows of any 4.5" or 5.5" for a "DECENT" price I'm all ears on this one.

AustinAg008 said:

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The steel market is absolutely bonkers right now. If anyone knows of any 4.5" or 5.5" for a "DECENT" price I'm all ears on this one.

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casing/tubing or line pipe? Because I just locked down some decent prices on some line pipe from trident steel. haven't bid out casing or tubing in a while though

Birdbear said:

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Premium said:

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Joseph Parrish said:

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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Cyp0111 said:

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Game is different. No money to drill fringe acreage. Best remaining wells now

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my question though is how long of >$80-$90 oil does it take before dumb money returns to O&G investing. my guess is that it happens faster than any of us would expect. because once the dumb money returns, we (as an industry) can go right back to drilling fringe acreage. Sure the smart ones drilling within cash flow wont, but dumb money makes dumb choices.

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I know this opinion got **** on last time, but I think it's entirely reasonable for companies to gradually increase capital spend at these prices. I don't think anybody should open the flood gates and ramp up to the crazy annual budgets we saw previously.

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But can't you basically lock in these prices through hedging at least a few years out? Should make it easy to budget.

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Can't really lock in current prices when the futures curve is backwardated to the $60s

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Same with gas, curve is backwardated as hell. Can't really hedge into a drilling program beyond 1 or maybe 2 years.

I've heard capital is drying up and frankly I can see that happening. However, I think PE is going to eventually flood back into the space with the returns being offered. Anyone know what the market for management team carries are these days? Have to imagine they're down from the a few years ago (I think that was 20% escalating to 30% or so). Wonder if the PE shops are also getting their carries cut.

Regarding pipe prices, I estimated a steel project (as the owner/operator) back in late 2019. 8" Steel X42 FBE was going for around $30/foot.

I just bought some 8" pipe for a TxDOT crossing and it was $64/ft.

HDPE has more than doubled in the last 18 months

yea, i install a bunch of 8" pipelines for our infield gathering system. I used to estimate projects at $55/ft fully installed for 8" sch 40 pipe internally and externally coated and zap-lok ends

the last batch of that pipe i bought was $63/ ft for just the prepped pipe. no trucking or installation.

JP_Losman said:

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Are the shale companies replacing these higher quality reserves fast enough?

I see a map full of sticks in the best zones in most counties in the Permian. I wonder what
actual inventory of high return locations realistically looks like.

Multiple other zones may be prospective, but so far most haven't been as good as Wolfcamp A and B

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I think a lot of people would be surprised at how many great locations are left in the various Bone Spring targets in certain areas of the Delaware Basin. But it's not like the Wolfcamp - much more area-specific and it takes more technical work to identify the sweet spots.

Apologies gents, wrong conversation