How are you defining this expansion?

While you are at it, please post a chart showing oil demand falling.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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John Francis Donaghy said:

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Latigo said:

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SoupNazi2001 said:

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I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we are in the second largest expansion since World War II and oil can't stay above $50. Demand won't get much better than now and will really tank during the next recession. This is primarily an issue of too much supply and less and less oil being used around the world due to major technological changes.

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Demand for oil is growing but less is being used? How does that work?

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I believe he is referring to the current economic expansion, which is not spurring the increased demand for oil that we used to see during such periods. That's the concerning thing. If demand for oil is this flat during a period of global growth, what's going to happen during the next slowdown?

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Bingo. At this point in the second largest economic expansion of all time, demand should be much higher.

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Based on what? Global demand is strong and has been accelerated since 2014. Its clearly supply driven.

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Might this expansion be much more tech weighted than previous?

maybe this expansion is putting the growth into fewer hands?

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Latigo said:

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How are you defining this expansion?

While you are at it, please post a chart showing oil demand falling.

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Never said demand was declining. Said it should be stronger at this point in the expansion. Tech was pretty heavy in the last 2 expansions as well. Unusual to have such a long slump in the oil market during an economic expansion.

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What was OPEC's % of the total world production last expansion vs now? What was the US share?

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Latigo said:

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How are you defining this expansion?

While you are at it, please post a chart showing oil demand falling.

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Never said demand was declining. Said it should be stronger at this point in the expansion. Tech was pretty heavy in the last 2 expansions as well. Unusual to have such a long slump in the oil market during an economic expansion.

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You said we are using less oil. How could demand not fall if we are using less?

No soup for you.

List of personal favorite demand topics:

1. Why don't nobody understand SoupNazi2001?
2. What's the probability that this expansion will still exist in each of the next 24 months?
3. What happens once it ceases to exist?
4. What will be the response to a new recession by TPTB?

...oops, reversed precedence

regarding demand...
The US may be seeing an expansion but as has been said over and over ..it the most anemic expansion on record. Its the " no job growth " expansion. While Apple and Amazon are booming areas like retail are in free fall along with the numerous jobs that are associated going away forever.
Europe is still stagnant. Unemployment is a huge issue as most western EU members have horrific labor policies.
Asia is not exactly booming ( demand wise) the formerly YUGE Red China economy has been exposed as the fraud that all controlled economies are.
In most areas of the world the free market is under massive government assault . We just experienced the worst 8 year expansion of government and its evil tentacles of control since WW2 and are only just beginning to see some relief. AND...
Fuel economies and technologies are making inroads into the need for the black gold. There is an energy revolution in progress and it has made a difference. Government mandates and green luddite idiocy are not responsible but the genius of the market is .

With that kind of measly growth we might as well go back to paper, pen, and Casio calculators.

The Original AG 76 said:

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regarding demand...
The US may be seeing an expansion but as has been said over and over ..it the most anemic expansion on record. Its the " no job growth " expansion. While Apple and Amazon are booming areas like retail are in free fall along with the numerous jobs that are associated going away forever.
Europe is still stagnant. Unemployment is a huge issue as most western EU members have horrific labor policies.
Asia is not exactly booming ( demand wise) the formerly YUGE Red China economy has been exposed as the fraud that all controlled economies are.
In most areas of the world the free market is under massive government assault . We just experienced the worst 8 year expansion of government and its evil tentacles of control since WW2 and are only just beginning to see some relief. AND...
Fuel economies and technologies are making inroads into the need for the black gold. There is an energy revolution in progress and it has made a difference. Government mandates and green luddite idiocy are not responsible but the genius of the market is .

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Well said. Oil is cheap. It's going to stay cheap unless and until something happens. And nothing is on the horizon.

The Original AG 76 said:

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regarding demand...
The US may be seeing an expansion but as has been said over and over ..it the most anemic expansion on record. Its the " no job growth " expansion. While Apple and Amazon are booming areas like retail are in free fall along with the numerous jobs that are associated going away forever.
Europe is still stagnant. Unemployment is a huge issue as most western EU members have horrific labor policies.
Asia is not exactly booming ( demand wise) the formerly YUGE Red China economy has been exposed as the fraud that all controlled economies are.
In most areas of the world the free market is under massive government assault . We just experienced the worst 8 year expansion of government and its evil tentacles of control since WW2 and are only just beginning to see some relief. AND...
Fuel economies and technologies are making inroads into the need for the black gold. There is an energy revolution in progress and it has made a difference. Government mandates and green luddite idiocy are not responsible but the genius of the market is .

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I agree with just about all above except your "no job growth" expansion here in the US. With unemployment at 4.3% and thousands of skilled construction trades and well-paying manufacturing jobs going unfilled for lack of labor, for example, there's no shortage of good jobs in this country. As mentioned earlier, the monthly payroll expansion is the largest and longest in our history. If anything, I suspect there's now more of an issue of people refusing to move to where the work is or believing that working with their hands is beneath them--they'd rather be minimum-wage baristas and whine about "inequality". As for job classes going away, that has happened as long as civilization has existed with new technologies replacing old ones and the outdated jobs linked to them.

Edit: News today reporting 6M open jobs nationally, many for skilled labor.

Quote:

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Well said. Oil is cheap. It's going to stay cheap unless and until something happens. And nothing is on the horizon.

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Who knows, will all the political uncertainty of certain nations right now and the political climate in the US, we could see something

SoupNazi2001 said:

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The Original AG 76 said:

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Not a single year of 3% growth in the so- called recovery . Pathetic

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The recession was not very deep or long either. Down 3.1% for 08-09.

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Printing money and piling on the debt! Yay!

Demand isn't the issue here. It's been growing at a pretty healthy rate and it's projected to keep growing. The issue is on the supply side. There's probably nothing on the horizon that will accelerate demand, but it's already solid.

Despite the oversupply there's a strong case to be made that the market isn't adequately pricing in geopolitical risk factors to supply. The Saudis and Iranians are fighting a proxy war, the Venezuelans and Nigerians are hanging on to their systems of government by a thread, the Brazilians are a cluster**** of corruption and ineptitude and the Saudis are preparing to launch the biggest IPO in history and are thus motivated to support prices and secure the most possible proceeds.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we are in the second largest expansion since World War II and oil can't stay above $50. Demand won't get much better than now and will really tank during the next recession. This is primarily an issue of too much supply and less and less oil being used around the world due to major technological changes.

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What kind of "expansion" are you referring to? Service sector manufacturing sector? Payrolls maybe increasing but not where it counts. The manufacturing side is still very weak and that is where the huge demand comes from.

Trump is meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi today. Any chance if things go well we could see some energy deals put into place? The Saudi $50 billion deal not long ago has me wondering about India. We need India's demand as an emerging market so hopefully the meeting goes well between the two of them.

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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MavsAg said:

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Starting to hear rumblings of crews being shut down. Rumor is Continental is shutting down 3 in the Bakken and Halliburton will be idling 2 crews in the DJ.

Anyone heard anything similar?

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Same here as far as the Bakken. I heard yesterday that Continental is releasing three crews. This after they had added two for the year.

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Anymore rumblings/confirmations to this? Bakken and DJ only ones to be hit so far?

aggielee03 said:

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Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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MavsAg said:

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Starting to hear rumblings of crews being shut down. Rumor is Continental is shutting down 3 in the Bakken and Halliburton will be idling 2 crews in the DJ.

Anyone heard anything similar?

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Same here as far as the Bakken. I heard yesterday that Continental is releasing three crews. This after they had added two for the year.

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Anymore rumblings/confirmations to this? Bakken and DJ only ones to be hit so far?

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It's really confusing because I just spoke with a customer that said they are going to work for Continental July 15th. I guess we'll see. Maybe Continental is price shopping.

Anyone here have any insight on prospects for drilling in the Permian? For the first time ever, my mother has been receiving multiple offers (Pony Oil, Clear Fork Royalty, and others) to buy out her mineral rights in southwest Dawson County. She owns only about 8 net mineral acres. It's been leased out twice since 2012, but hasn't been drilled on.

Do these companies know something that we don't, or is this all just mad speculation? Would much income be expected on such a small slice of the pie even if there were drilling?

There are 5 to 6 horizontal wells being drilled in SW Dawson and SE Gaines right now. That's why the mineral offers are rolling in. The courthouses are supposedly very busy as well with landmen, which is another good sign for you. Very rarely are selling minerals a good idea. As said before, they know more about the value of them than you do. If you need or want immediate money, that's another story though.

What the hell is "implied demand"? Gas stocks dropped by 894,000 barrels lest week, more than the expected 583,000 barrel drop. Despite this, "implied" demand dropped by 278,000 barrels last week, continuing weak demand. I haven't seen this term reported before.

nu awlins ag said:

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What the hell is "implied demand"? Gas stocks dropped by 894,000 barrels lest week, more than the expected 583,000 barrel drop. Despite this, "implied" demand dropped by 278,000 barrels last week, continuing weak demand. I haven't seen this term reported before.

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It's like "Wall St. consensus".

So they are continuing to try and push down demand to get lower prices?

Great article on how the shale revolution is transforming NAFTA energy markets: Build Pipelines, Not Walls

"At a congressional hearing in Washington this month, experts noted that the United States, Mexico and Canada are on track to achieve North American energy independence by 2020meaning the region will produce more liquid fuels than it consumes. Cheap, abundant energy will boost the region's industrial competitiveness; it will also reduce its dependence on less stable producers such as Venezuela and Persian Gulf States."

XOM and LNG about to blowup down there